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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 2 $2 million Petaluma Hill Stakes (1900m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

1. Numerian (Annabel Neasham): Solid import who has been a couple of years now and built a decent record at weight-for-age around the middle distance. He’s won twice in Australia and they were back-to-back in May/June of 2022. Competitive at the top level in the autumn without winning, recording seconds in the Australian Cup and Doomben Cup both at 2000m and he tried hard midfield in Dubai Honour’s Queen Elizabeth. Rolls forward from the wide gate and if he can run to that kind of level first-up he has to be in the mix somewhere.

2. Zeyrek (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): Probably more the handicap type but he has been somewhat competitive at weight-for-age at times. Finished behind Numerian in both the Queen Elizabeth and Doomben Cup so that’s a reasonable line on him. Boxed on okay behind Think It Over in the 7 Stakes over a mile second-up so is ready for the 1900m and has drawn to be afforded every chance. But needs a career best to win.

3. Young Werther (Danny O’Brien): Broke a run of outs with successive wins in Melbourne with a gap between them though is probably not particularly suited at weight-for-age given the few attempts he’s had. Ran third in the Turnbull this time last year at Group 1 level, but under different conditions. Not sure where he’ll find himself in the run here but happy to overlook him.

4. Luncies (Kris Lees): Never able to get into the race first-up in the Cameron at Newcastle and the 1500m was well below his best anyway. Nothing made any significant ground outside the winner and he was okay on the line. Much better suited up to this sort of trip and will have the blinkers going back on. Likely still wants a little further though in his last win he was too good for Spirit Ridge who has obviously run very well since.

Protagonist (Pic: Bradley Photos)

5. No Compromise (Chris Waller): Seen a lot worse 40/1 shots than this fellow but he also has the weight-for-age disadvantage hanging over him. Excellent run on resuming in the Cameron, making some headway to run fourth in a race it wasn’t easy to do. Into his comfort zone now distance wise and he’s rarely run a poor race at this track. Likely has to be negatively ridden from the wide alley but wouldn’t be the biggest shot if he landed in a minor placing.

6. Protagonist (Kris Lees): If he happened to run into a strong second behind Just Fine in the Kingston Town he may well be a clear favourite for this race despite being a weight-for-age novice. Had go give away a huge start there off an outside alley and he did a big job to get as close as he did in fourth place, just on the heels of third. Blinkers on here and barrier one is a huge plus for him. Beat Zeyrek to win the Sky High here in the autumn and he’s a major player if he handles the extra weight.

7. Hoo Ya Mal (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): A bit expected of this import third-up after two excellent performances at 1600m in September. He was eye-catching in the Chelmsford then probably not suited staying at the mile in the 7 Stakes but he was spotted attacking the line. Stepping to 1900m now is ideal for him, he’s drawn well and has an in-form jockey on board. Mini-D-Day for him, no surprise he’s right in the market and looks a big chance.

8. Sky Lab (Paul Perry): Had to endure a jump from 1400m to 2000m and acquitted himself pretty well in the Kingston Town third-up from a break and he’s the type of horse that could charge into the placings somewhere without surprising. Not a true weight-for-age horse, at least not proven at this point, but draws to be a bit handier this time.

9. Hosier (Mark Minervini): Missed the Metropolitan last week to be saved for this and has come up with a much better gate than he had there. Game effort on pace in the Newcastle Cup to be beaten under a length and he did win impressively, albeit on a soft 7, in the Premier’s Cup three starts ago. Think around the 2000m mark is his sweet spot, he has a good racing pattern and is an each-way chance.

10. Mount Popa (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): Suspect his best form is behind him and would have been better suited in the Port Macquarie Cup. If he happened to strike his best form it would give him some hope as he did run third in Think It Over’s Queen Elizabeth last year. However, he’s not been placed since then and ran on just okay in the Cameron first-up. Happy to risk.

11. Montefilia (Chris Waller): Thought she was so well placed in the Kingston Town third-up after a couple of excellent efforts over shorter at weight-for-age. She found Just Fine too good and the fact she didn’t manage second placing is a small concern. There’s no doubt if she runs to anywhere near her best she would win this race. Draws perfectly, gets the Nash Rawiller bonus and no excuses fitness wise. If you trust her to strike back then she’s the horse to beat.

12. Hinged (Chris Waller): Had the dreaded cardiac arrhythmia second-up when she failed in the 7 Stakes so there’s an easy forgive for that performance. Usually they bounce back from such an incident and her first-up fourth in the Winx was typically solid. Jumps on to the pace here and if she gets an economical enough run she can box on. Have a small query at the trip, she did run second at 1850m in the G1 Vinery when run at Newcastle last year and fourth in the ATC Oaks at 2400m but her attempt at 2000m behind Dubai Honour in the Ranvet suggests that’s as far as she wants. Wouldn’t leave her out.

Montefilia (Pic: Steve Hart)

13. Magical Lagoon (Chris Waller): Yet to show any sort of form in three runs in Australia so that makes it hard to put forward much of a case. Likely found the Shannon too short for her at 1500m when resuming but she’s entitled to be long odds.

14. Fireburn (Gary Portelli): Small moment of truth for her this preparation as she’s out to a distance she’s been looking for on the back of two very handy runs over shorter trips without the best of barrier luck. Drew inside first-up and crept home well then drew out in the 7 Stakes and had to go back and run, which she did well enough to have confidence she’s headed the right way. Where does she get to from this gate? Probably back and that may make it tough. Good enough if she gets the breaks.

15E. Hezashocka (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): Punched above his weight to run fourth in the Queen Elizabeth earlier this year in his last Sydney appearance, so if he happened to run to that level he could sneak into the money somewhere. Had support in the Naturalism two weeks ago but drew wide and went back and didn’t get into the action at all. Last win was in July 2022 in a 2000m open handicap. Win would surprise.

16E. Ironclad (SCRATCHED).

SPEED MAP: There's not a whole lot of speed to speak of. Numerian has a prime chance to cruise across and either lead or sit outside Hinged who should land in a forward spot as usual. Hosier has generally been looking for a bit of cover but still up on the speed. Zeyrek tends to find himself in the first five or six but is rarely a factor in the early speed. The big query is Hoo Ya Mal and whether they opt to be closer now up in distance.

SELECTIONS:
7 HOO YA MAL
6 Protagonist
11 Montefilia
1 Numerian

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill meeting