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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $1 million James Squire Golden Rose (1400m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. This has been based on a soft track, probably 6-7 range, with the forecast for some rain.

1. Broadsiding (James Cummings): Last season’s champion NSW two-year-old with a pair of Group 1 wins at a mile. One of those was on a heavy 10 in the Champagne and the other on a good 3 in the JJ Atkins so track conditions don’t concern him. That’s a head start. You’re a hard marker if you haven’t liked his two trials leading into this race as he’s cruised home into second in both. It’s not easy to win this race first-up but it’s been the target to do just that and the only question mark you could have is whether gate one is a plus or minus at this stage. Entitled to be favourite and hard to beat.

Broadsiding (Pic: Bradley Photos)

2. Traffic Warden (James Cummings): A little in the shadow of his stablemate but his record is excellent and showed in his first-up win in the Run To The Rose he’s come back in great order. Copped a bump early in the straight and was good enough to shake it off and knuckle down. Narrowly beaten by Manaal on a heavy track in the Sires’ at 1400m so there’s no issue with whatever conditions prevail. If he’s giving Broadsiding a head start given the wide gate he might find it hard to reel him in but he’s also shown good tactical speed.

3. Storm Boy (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Will he jump with them, that’s the big question that could well decide his chances. Didn’t fire on a heavy track in the Sires’ last prep after his game Slipper run. Small query there if it’s heavy. Took control first-up in the San Domenico and ran them into the ground but we all saw him in the Run To The Rose just step away a bit slowly and cop a bump meaning he had to work overtime to get to the front. Under the circumstances he ran well to be beaten under a length. The wide gate is probably a huge advantage to him and if he finds any control he will be hard to run down.

4. Linebacker (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): The flashing light run of the Run To The Rose where he was conservatively ridden off the outside gate but reeled off easily the fastest last 600m of the race to run fourth, and was right on Storm Boy’s heels on the line. Different set up here and that’s crucial as he’s shown tactical speed before. He has form around Broadsiding from the autumn, beating him in the Baillieu here then a gallant second in the Champagne on the heavy where he was only run down inside the 100m. Undeniable chance.

5. Anode (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Wasn’t expected to trouble them in the Run To The Rose but he was huge in running second after leading early then being headed by Storm Boy, he took over again at the 100m before Traffic Warden chimed in. Perhaps that says he’s gone up a notch at three as he was fairly safely held in the Sires’ and Champagne albeit on heavy tracks. If the ground is in the soft range, which it will likely be, then he’s in the ball game as you know he’ll roll forward and be on the speed.

6. Fearless (Peter Snowden): You’d have to mark him a bit disappointing first-up in the Run To The Rose given the passage he had in the race. Followed Anode into the straight but yielded ground in the last 200m. He was placed in the Champagne on the heavy but beaten five lengths so he may find it tough if we have those conditions to deal with. Draws to get every chance again but does have work to do on face value.

7. Mayfair (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Slightly different form line coming through the Ming Dynasty where he found the lead pretty well and ran along comfortably in front. Looked as though he’d be swallowed up by more than just the winner at one stage but fought on gamely to run second. Chased Storm Boy before that over the 1100m. He’s done nothing wrong in four starts, will find the fence first you’d imagine before the stablemates come across, and you know he’ll fight hard. May just lack the class of a few of these but we’ll find out.

8. Emirate (Chris Waller): Looked impressive winning his first two starts back in May and June on wet tracks, so that’s a box ticked. He wasn’t in the market as such in the Run To The Rose but did work home okay, doing a lot of that work in the middle stages and sustaining the run to the line. Has a good two to three lengths to make up on those who beat him home but gets an extra 200m to do that and conditions that he won’t mind on the evidence of those two wins. Can be a little closer from an inside gate and is an each-way chance.

Emirate (Pic: Steve Hart)

9. Tropicus (Anthony & Sam Freedman): Soft track winner on debut so that’s not bad knowledge to have. He’s been fine in his two Sydney runs, an eye-catching third in the San Domenico before giving away far too much start in the Run To The Rose. He ran on okay there to be beaten under three lengths and shapes as though the 1400m will be right up his alley. A slightly better draw this time with all the major speed drawn outside is a good recipe for him to settle that bit closer and get the chance to travel. Wouldn’t shock if he runs a big race.

10. Clear Proof (John Thompson): Not sure there were too many excuses for his failure in the Ming Dynasty where he didn’t beat one home. Nothing major appears to have been found to explain it. Perhaps the firm track? He won on debut on a soft 7 and his run behind Gatsby’s in the Rosebud was excellent at the short trip, also on a soft track. Does need to lift a bit but surely he’s better than that last run suggests.

11. Daggers (Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young): Apparently may not make the trip due to the forecast for some rain though he was hardly disgraced on a soft 7 (and a deteriorating one) at Flemington in his only defeat to date when beaten a length by Dawn Service. He has a nice draw and blinkers on but perhaps the Dawn Service form is a bit below what he’d be meeting here if he heads north.

SPEED MAP: We all expect Storm Boy to cross them from the outside, he'll do that comfortably if he breaks okay otherwise he'll have to work to get around stablemates Anode and Mayfair who will land right on the pace. Decisions to be made with Traffic Warden whether he follows that speed across or is conservative, both options are there for him. Linebacker should land closer. Fearless and Emirate have inside gates and could make some use of them. Broadsiding could find himself three or four back on the fence unless they try to hold a spot from gate one. It should be truly run, moreso if Storm Boy is tardy early.

SELECTIONS:
1 BROADSIDING
4 Linebacker
3 Storm Boy
2 Traffic Warden

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill meeting