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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $1 million Five Diamonds Prelude (1500m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday. The winner is exempt from ballot into the $2 million Five Diamonds on November 11.

1. Converge (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): What do we do with Converge? At his best he’s stretching the likes of Think About It and back in March was beaten under half a length by Anamoe and Fangirl. He was solid enough as favourite in the Bill Ritchie first-up but did have his chance and we have to be a little forgiving of his Epsom finishing position after he was badly held up and chopped out of a run. So he shouldn’t have run thirteenth. He’s a real take on trust prospect, wouldn’t be a shock at all if he’s in the finish but it’s hard to be bullish.

2. Democracy Manifest (Chris Waller): With one of the better turns of foot in the race he’s always dangerous. Up 6kg on his Epsom fifth placing where he was charging along the rail, and a clear third at the 100m, only to be stopped in his tracks very late. Where he finishes is unclear but it’s closer for sure. We know he’ll get back in the field to some degree and is probably a deserving favourite but he will be dictated to by things like the speed and the pattern of the day.

Democracy Manifest (Pic: Bradley Photos)

3. Palmetto (John Sargent): Has a few lengths to make up on Democracy Manifest from the Cameron Handicap two starts ago, though the winner did get a lovely run along the fence, and he was sound back 100m in the Alan Brown two weeks ago. Did have his chance there. He won The Coast over a mile back in May at Gosford and is ready for the step back up in trip now after his three runs back. Yet to fire at Randwick in four starts but the draw and trip are ticks and he's one of the chances.

4. Zoumon (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Talented middle distance/staying type resuming after a string of wins last time in once he reached 2000m. Kicking off at 1500m would be the only negative but he went within a narrow margin of being unbeaten through last prep after a close second when first-up at 1800m. There looks to be a bit of pressure here so probably has to work to find the lead, but if he gets it soft he could give some cheek.

5. Cotehele (John O’Shea): Had the misfortune of bumping into Cepheus at his past two starts, split by a short break, and only just failed to catch him in the Alan Brown two weeks ago. Everything looks to set up well for him to be a force in this race. He has a nice soft draw to get the cover he needs, he’s well off at the weights only up 3kg and is very much a dry tracker. He also has a big finish on him and if he’s saved up for that burst he’s usually hard to hold out. Take beating.

6. Waterford (Chris Waller): Not blessed with a lot of tactical speed and that saw him drift well off the pace in the Alan Brown before he worked home down the outside to finish midfield beaten just over three lengths. His runs in the Theo Marks and Shannon were strong, particularly the latter. Comes away from Rosehill for the first time in a while and that’s where all his form is. His two Randwick starts were in the Silver Eagle last year and a Benchmark 88 won by Think About It where he started $2.70. Can win if the breaks go his way.

7. Detonator Jack (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): Thought he had his chance in the Alan Brown after settling three back on the fence, tracking the winner, and enjoying a nice run. He didn’t quicken but just held his ground. You’d have liked to see more from a horse starting favourite. That said now he’s creeping past 1400m we might start to see the best of him given his last win was at 1600m and he’s won up to 2100m. Another soft draw and Jason Collett has had a ride on him now so not dismissing him.

8. Fawkner Park (Annabel Neasham): Charged through the grades in the winter and pulled up stumps after the Premier’s Cup here back in August where he started favourite but had way too much to do jumping from the outside and going right back. He won at 1500m fresh, albeit in a Benchmark 64 at Kembla, last preparation and aside from his last run he hadn’t put a foot wrong. If he happens to strike a fast run race he’ll be storming home.

9. Mississippi Prince (Brent Gray): Beat everything but Steely when resuming at Eagle Farm two weeks ago and has to carry the same weight against stronger opposition. On his side is that he’s a lightly raced horse with a good winning record and he rarely runs bad races. Against him is a tough gate and the increase in depth in this race. So, he faces a task.

10. St Lawrence (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): Sydney debut for this ex-NZ gelding who has made a habit of winning his way through the grades in Victoria. He was five weeks between runs going into a 1400m event at Sandown on October 1, he was a drifter in betting there and worked home fairly under 61kg to run fourth. Given this is just his tenth start he could still have some upside but this is a tougher race. Draw and confident jockey are pluses but a place chance.

Cotehele (Pic: Steve Hart)

11. Wategos (Bjorn Baker): Another horse building an imposing winning record and he did an excellent job off a freshen up and a drop in trip to be run down by Airman over 1200m three weeks ago. That horse has since placed at Group 3 level. He’d be pushing forward from the gate and as we’ve seen if he gets any control in his races he can run them along and get them chasing. Whether that happens depends on a couple of decisions from other riders. An each-way chance.

12. Super Helpful (Barbara Joseph, Paul & Matt Jones): Sprung a big surprise at $51 when scoring second-up at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago in a Benchmark 78. He’s made a bit of a habit of doling that, his previous win was at $21 at the Scone carnival, but that win backed up a solid first-up performance and showed he’s on track for the Big Dance. As far as this race is concerned, he’s drawn well again and should get his chance to measure up.

13. Journalism (SCRATCHED).

14. Altivo (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): Luck hasn’t been his friend in two runs back from a spell and you could argue there’s a case he wins them both. We’ll never know about first-up but last time he did some work to find a nice spot just off the speed then became pocketed and just couldn’t get into the clear in enough time. Still ran well for a close third there. Bit more depth but he’s clearly flying and is another who could relish a solid tempo so he can unleash down the middle.

15. New Republic (Mark Minervini): More a middle distance performer resuming at what is a suitable trip but faces a solid class hike. Raced consistently at midweek level last time in, winning one at Canterbury over 1900m, but in this class he’d need a career best to be in the finish and that’s unlikely to come fresh as he tends to take a run or two.

16. Dreamflight (SCRATCHED).

17. Glounthaune (SCRATCHED).

SPEED MAP: Potential for at very least a genuine tempo up front, you'd expect Wategos and Mississippi Prince to press on from wide gates and Zoumon is a natural front-runner drawn the middle who, despite being first-up over a trip short of his best, should also be in the fray. What happens behind that trio is very much up for dispute, Super Helpful and Palmetto can take advantage of nice draws too.

SELECTIONS:
5 COTEHELE
2 Democracy Manifest
8 Fawkner Park
14 Altivo

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting