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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Listed $2 million Five Diamonds (1800m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

1. Attrition (Mitchell Freedman): Hard to fault his win in the Hills Stakes where he had to do plenty of chasing the leader Royal Patronage as he was sent forward from the outside gate to sit second. He was good enough to hold off Kovalica at weight-for-age in a tough performance. That was a month ago and he’s since trialled to keep him up to the mark. Set weights and penalties this time and he’s drawn well which is important to his chances as there’s the potential for another solidly run race.

2. Desert Lightning (SCRATCHED).

3. Lindermann (Chris Waller): Ran up to market expectation in winning the Craven Plate second-up two weeks ago though barrier one helped his cause plenty. Did well to get out of a pocket and score narrowly and he was only second-up there so open to some improvement. Won the Sky High third-up last preparation at this track and he’s drawn to get a cart across from the likely leader and that should give him every chance to fire. Can be a bit hit and miss but at this level is well placed and can be in the finish.

Lindermann (Pic: Steve Hart).

4. Rediener (Chris Waller): Three runs back from a year off and he’s been set a couple of tasks, ran well first-up then safely held in the Epsom. Beaten just under two lengths in the Craven Plate but he was very one paced there and had his chance after getting into the clear well before the winner. Perhaps he’s just not the same horse after the long layoff and he’d need to improve.

5. Pericles (James Cummings): Consistent enough Godolphin gelding who was gassed trying to chase Pride Of Jenni in the King Charles III. He loomed into third past the 200m but hit the wall and dropped away to beat a couple home. Had his chance behind Attrition in the Hill as he did in the Underwood before that. There has to be a question at 1800m from the wide gate at this level which means, as handy as he is, he’s difficult to make a strong case for.

6. Osipenko (Chris Waller): Do they try something different and roll forward from the wide gate? Chris Waller suggested as much in his weekly preview video. We’re now some 574 days since his last win come Saturday and he was quite plain in the Prelude two weeks ago, getting back and never making an impact. Previous efforts weren’t bad. Very much a take on trust prospect.

7. Amor Victorious (Bjorn Baker): Went a month between runs into the Prelude and seemingly had a nice enough run behind his stablemate but couldn’t go with him in the straight and weakened for an uncharacteristic failure. No doubt he will be fitter and the blinkers come off, that suggests perhaps a more conservative ride from a wider gate. He was ultra consistent before that and form around Ceolwulf and Tom Kitten read well but he’ll need plenty of luck and a good steer.

8. Yellow Brick (Tony & Maddysen Sears): Enjoyed quite a good run in the Prelude a few pairs back with cover and ground to the line in fourth. Just seemed a little flat there. Doesn’t have to travel interstate this time and have to respect his place as favourite in the market last start and be a little forgiving. Not drawn as kindly but there’s likely to be good speed and stable thinks he will relish a step out in distance. Bit of a D-Day for him as far as Sydney goes.

9. Docklands (SCRATCHED).

10. Iknowastar (Bjorn Baker): Led and wasn’t attacked in winning the Prelude two weeks ago at his second run from a break though he still ran quick time. Hasn’t been beyond a mile for some 18 months or so and the distance is definitely a query but he has barrier one on his side and while it’d be a surprise to see him lead (assuming Major Beel runs) he’s sure to get a nice enough run up handy. If he can run out 1800m he’s sure to give a good account.

11. Territory Express (Paul Niceforo): Tends to be slowly away and that’s costing him as he comes up in class, and it certainly did cost him in the Prelude. Wins in one more stride after giving away a big start. If he can break with them the draw is handy for him to find a spot with a couple behind him at least and he’ll appreciate a good gallop up front. He’s been to 1800m a few times and largely run well and third-up here he’s the one they’ll be looking for charging late if he can get through the field.

12. Freedom Rally (Tony Gollan): Has been a little disappointing in his Sydney trips but last time was his best effort in the Prelude where he worked home nicely to run third, beaten under a length. He’s been to a mile twice and won well on both occasions back home and from where he’s drawn there’s the chance to get across and find a spot with the speed around him. If the Prelude form is the right form for this race then he’s going to be around the mark.

13. Relentless Voyager (Ciaron Maher): Import with some big question marks around him. Lightly raced and it’s been over two years since he contested a race under 2000m. Last win was at 2414m and comes through the Ebor at York last time, one of England’s biggest handicap staying races, where he lumped 62.5kg to a just better than midfield finish. No public jump outs or trials so he’s a real mystery but on face value expect he finds this a bit sharp for him.

14. New Endeavour (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Looked to be building to something with his solid second-up placing in the Shannon but he’s been a bit plain in his last two. Worked across easily enough to sit handy in the Craven Plate but when put under pressure on the turn went backwards. Blinkers on might help but he does have the wide barrier to offset, being a go forward horse they’ll give it a shot. However, a win would be a surprise.

Territory Express (Pic: Bradley Photos).

15. Major Beel (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Did his best to go with Pride Of Jenni in the King Charles III but wasn’t up to that task and weakened out. Prior to that he was giving some cheek, beaten just over a length by Fangirl and leading the Epsom before boxing on beaten 3.7 by Ceolwulf. He will roll to the lead you would imagine and look to sneak away before the turn. Another you’d have to take on trust but at least you know where he’s most likely to be in the run.

16. Kingswood (Gavin Bedggood): He’s the up and comer of the race with two impressive wins for the new stable in Melbourne. Enjoyed a nice run in the Coongy and surged away to an easy victory there, was scheduled to run at Moonee Valley two weeks ago but scratched with a minor issue. Arrives here with a perfect draw for his racing style and he’s the one whose best could still be ahead of him. Commands plenty of respect.

17E. Strait Acer (Anthony Cummings): Appeared to be very dour in his second-up run in the Prelude, cornering just off the speed on the fence and just bobbing up and down in the run home. Not beaten a long way but wasn’t showing any dash at the finish. This time last year he was flying, he’s not quite the same horse at the moment and he’ll be giving away a big start from where he should get to in the run.

18E. Holymanz (Ciaron Maher): Going through the motions a bit this preparation it seems but he did find the line with some degree of purpose from the back in the Prelude to run into fifth place. He has won at 1700m and 1800m so perhaps he’s looking for that little bit of extra ground. You’d be loathe to write off something from the Maher yard at the moment, especially as he’s drawn well, but he did start $31 in that Prelude and has some work to do to lift.

19E. Sounds Of Heaven (Joe Pride): Reacted well to the seven day back up and proved far too strong over the Randwick mile third-up. Granted she hasn’t beaten anything that’s racing in super form she did beat them comfortably and shapes as though she will love the extra distance. Not sure where she stands class wise yet but her three previous Australian starts were in Group company so there’s clearly an opinion from the stable. If she secures a start she would be a good each-way chance.

20E. Magnaspin (Leon & Troy Corstens & Will Larkin): Hit and miss type whose last win was in The Coast on a heavy track back in May. Notched a Group 3 placing first-up then outclassed at big odds in the Toorak. Just a run at Moonee Valley last time in a restricted event. Best form is on wet ground and he’d need it to get the better of some of these.

SPEED MAP: Major Beel is the likely front-runner and if his recent runs are any guide he'll look to get them rolling. Lindermann has drawn alongside and can get a cart across and then it's whether Amor Victorious and New Endeavour go with them from wider out. Amor Victorious may be conservative. Iknowastar will kick up from the inside gate, interesting to see if he tries to hold the lead. Things could get combative up front if he does. Then you have Kingswood and Attrition drawn to be handy but off the pace. Does Territory Express miss the start again?

SELECTIONS:
11 TERRITORY EXPRESS
16 Kingswood
1 Attrition
3 Lindermann

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill meeting