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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $2 million Five Diamonds (1800m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

1. Converge (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Wonder whether the confidence was knocked out of Converge in the Epsom when he was crowded up badly in the straight. He found a perfect place off a wide gate in the Prelude last time but was under pressure before the turn and didn’t fire a shot. Back to barrier one is a plus for him but he’s hard to trust at the moment. If he was to find his best then he’s a chance.

2. Palmetto (John Sargent): Hadn’t been far away in his first three runs this prep before scoring a narrow win in the Prelude where the bob of the head on the line favoured him. Enjoyed a nice run behind the speed there and has again been handed an inside gate so should get the run of the race again. He was a $21 chance last time and you have to wonder whether he can stretch to 1800m, that’d be the major concern.

Palmetto (Pic: Bradley Photos)

3. Antino (Tony Gollan): Nobody missed his unlucky defeat in the Crystal Mile, should have won the race without a lot of doubt. He was super in the Toorak off a wide gate before then. Back to the Sydney direction has to be a plus and he’s drawn a kind gate to put himself in the first half of the field. Could easily be unbeaten this preparation, his longest losing margin is 0.6 lengths, but traffic issues have had a lot to say about that. There’s potential for gate two not to be great for him if he doesn’t get away so well. Far too short but brings the strongest form into the race.

4. Hoo Ya Mal (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Knocked off by Montefilia in the Hill Stakes after looking the winner here a month ago then didn’t fire in the Caulfield Cup as a $10 chance. Has to press forward from the wide gate in this field and the spot outside the leader is probably up for grabs so it might no be so bad. Wonder whether this is an afterthought. Place prospects.

5. Hinged (Chris Waller): Hasn’t been a great spring for this mare. Thought she was only fair at best in the Hill Stakes, had a nice run and didn’t put in, then in the Empire Rose she got a long way back behind the runaway leader, who held on to win, and only made some ground. Pulled up lame there too. Another who will have to go forward to a degree from wider out. Would need a big form reversal if she was to win.

6. Jimi Hendrix (Annabel Neasham): Import making his local debut sight unseen with no trials since leaving the Canterbury quarantine centre. Brings a handy winning record with him and managed a Group 2 placing in July in the UK. Be guided by the market for a pointer to his chances as he’s very hard to line up, especially from an awkward alley.

7. Democracy Manifest (Chris Waller): A horse we know well, he’ll get back in the field and look to run past them late. Gave away far too much start in the Prelude from a similar draw and you’d imagine that rear position awaits him again. Nash taking over is an interesting ‘gear’ change and if the race pans out for those looking to run on he will be hard to beat. Perhaps prefer him at Randwick but not out of it.

8. Hope In Your Heart (Kerry Parker): Something of a hidden run last week in the Empire Rose, she blew the start from gate one and found herself well off the tearaway leader. Her effort to make ground in the straight was stopped in its tracks the last 100m or so and she should have finished closer. Just been a hard luck story after another for her this spring, and she’s come up with another wide gate. Good enough to win but you’d suspect she’s going to do it tough again.

9. Zoumon (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Found the 1500m too slick for him first-up in the Prelude but didn’t stick on as you’d hope in the straight after enjoying an economical run. Extra trip is a plus for him and probably finds the lead this time around, that’s big for his chances as his past three wins have been from the front. Expect he will improve if he can get any control early.

10. Forgot You (SCRATCHED).

11. Detonator Jack (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): There’s a sense of timing about him getting to the 1800m now after four runs back and he finished off well in the Prelude from four back on the fence to just miss. Don’t mind him drawing off the fence this time and just a little bit of give in the track would be to his advantage if he can get it. Looks to be enough speed for him to find a midfield spot and be presented at the right time. Hard to beat.

12. Unspoken (Peter & Paul Snowden): The winning margin was probably a shade flattered out of his last start win owing to some carnage in behind. But he took control of the race and bolted in and that sets him up well to step up in grade. Possibly not suited by the set weights and penalties here but he has that upside you can’t quantify as yet. And a versatile racing pattern. Must be respected.

Unspoken (Pic: Bradley Photos)

13. Waterford (Chris Waller): Where he gets to from the outside gate, probably back near the tail given the tricky starting point, and the pattern on the day will be crucial as he showed he was on target with a close third in the Prelude – and he probably wins in another stride or two. Has to handle the 1800m, we’ve so far only seen him up to 1500m, giving away a head start but stays under notice.

14. Thalassophile (SCRATCHED).

15. Regal Lion (Annabel Neasham): Bobs up now and then to win a race but does have a poor first-up record. Resumed over this trip last time in and was safely held, interestingly the race won by Without A Fight, but jumped out of the ground to win the Ipswich Cup second-up. Very much a take on trust proposition.

16. Fawkner Park (Annabel Neasham): You’d just about make a case for him if he’d drawn a bit kinder on the back of a handy first-up run in the Prelude where he went back into the second half and worked home down the outside into fifth. Democracy Manifest came from behind him and beat him home but he’ll be fitter for it. Probably has to concede a start again and that makes things tough for him. But if they are running on through the day it enhances his chances.

17E. St Lawrence (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): Had the favours in the run and kept coming to be beaten 1.4 lengths in the Prelude, suggesting the extra ground will be a plus for him. Won at the trip at his fourth race start in a Benchmark 70. Only lightly raced so has the chance to step up again but prefer the place.

18E. Touristic (Peter & Paul Snowden): Lumped with 61kg first-up at Kensington and was solid enough behind Iknowastar over 1550m with the winner running them along in front. Fitter for that and based on what we saw last time in the trip will suit him. It comes down to class and if he runs here he will have to hit a new peak to win.

SPEED MAP: Zoumon has the chance to take up the running and that's his best chance of winning. Think Hoo Ya Mal crosses Unspoken to sit outside the leader. Hinged could also slot in around that spot if she goes forward as usual. Antino, Palmetto and Converge can find good cover. Waterford has little choice but to go back to last. Expecting a solid enough tempo.

SELECTIONS:
11 DETONATOR JACK
3 Antino
12 Unspoken
8 Hope In Your Heart

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill meeting