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By Nick Berney

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday’s Canterbury meeting. Selections based on a soft to heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

10. Shalailed had nearly every chance when resuming at Hawkesbury 21 days ago and ran second in a high-pressure race. Further, he was checked/blocked in the final straight and was forced into the inferior ground but never shirked the task to the line with two subsequent winners to confirm the form. The two-year-old colt improved considerably second-up last preparation and brings the best last start figure into this assignment. In addition, he has a strong starting price profile, maps to get all favours, and a fitness edge relative to some of his main rivals.

Dangers: Debutant 9. Selous has trialled well on the synthetic and showed natural gate speed in his latest heat. Expect him to find a positive position; he can sprint fresh, and the tight turning track suits. 14. Zambezi River has strong form-lines and has trialled well enough in preparation for this race. The Chris Waller trained galloper receives a significant barrier/gear change, and James McDonald takes the ride. 13. Vancouver’s Crown is coming out time/sectional merit races and is a knockout chance.

How to play it: Shalailed WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Shalailed runs second at Hawkesbury on April 13

Godolphin trained galloper 5. Kin was every chance first-up in the Group 2 Percy Sykes Stakes (1200m) at Randwick and battled on ok in extremely testing conditions. She trialled well before her resumption, and the two-year-old filly who drops significantly in grade will undoubtedly appreciate drier ground. Some query on the draw, but James McDonald rides for the first time, and she has dominant ratings relative to her rivals.

Dangers: 14. Writrose led and sprinted one of the fastest last 600m sectionals of the entire meeting in 37.41 at this track/distance 14 days ago in a high rating race. The two-year-old filly is rock-hard fit and maps to get all favours. 2. Amati and 8. Pierossa are the pick of the first starters.

How to play it: Kin WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Kin runs sixth at Randwick on April 9

7. Concordia who resumes, has trialled well enough without blinkers, and had an apprentice riding in both heats. Last preparation, her two runs had hidden merit where she was checked/blocked on debut at this track for the majority of the straight and still ran one of the fastest last 200m splits of the entire meeting in 11.71. Additionally, she had too much to do second-up at Kensington and ran on strongly in a high rating race that has produced six subsequent winners. Expect an aggressive ride from the kind draw, blinkers go on for race day, and Tim Clark takes the ride.

Dangers: 4. Celtic Harp resumed 16 days ago at Warwick Farm and was fancied late in betting $4.5-$4.0 favourite. Further, he was ridden up early to sit outside the leader at a fast pace and battled on well in the straight, but fitness took its toll first-up. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. The three-year-old gelding gets a significant barrier/gear change and has strong form lines. 6. Aircraftman has been racing well all preparation and has multiple figures to win but tends to overrace. Expect improvement from 2. Taurasi who is fitter and maps well.

How to play it: Concordia WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds) & Celtic Harp WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Concordia wins a trial at Randwick on April 19

3. Too Much Caviar led at a moderate pace and tried hard running second with a big gap to third in a high rating race at Randwick 11 days ago. The four-year-old gelding drops in grade and his profile suggests he is ready to peak fourth-up. Further, he maps to control the pace and his figures line-up well relative to his opposition.

Dangers: Forgiving of 9. Short Shorts who raced wide throughout in extremely testing conditions at Randwick in a listed race last start. Prior to that start, she produced a career peak figure and ran very fast overall time at Hawkesbury. In addition, a repeat of that effort will put her in the finish, and the winkers go back on. 11. Enduring Night has a knockout profile and the consistent 7. Wild Chap gets in well at the weights with the astute claim for Reece Jones.

How to play it: Too Much Caviar WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Too Much Caviar runs second at Randwick on April 23

7. Caboteur was solid last start at Canterbury 14 days ago running second in a strong time race and there were decisive margins throughout to confirm the quality. Further, there has been a subsequent winner since. The three-year-old gelding will roll forward, is proven on rain affected ground, races well at Canterbury and is ready to peak third-up over further distance. Each-way.

Dangers: 6. Za Ceibas resumed a winner and produced a career peak figure that aligns well against his rivals. Additionally, he comes out of the same race as Caboteur last start but raced flat second-up. He has the starting price profile edge and is a key late market watch. 10. Yggdrasil continues to improve throughout her preparation and 4. Miss Madison is the knockout.

How to play it: Caboteur E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Caboteur runs second at Canterbury on April 20

Plenty of speed engaged here, and 4. Warrior Hero who resumes should get run to suit with an anticipated fast pace. The three-year-old gelding has had two solid hit-outs at the trials and is coming out of proven form lines from last preparation. In addition, he was checked/blocked first-up last prep for part of the final straight and still ran one of the fastest final 600m splits of the entire meeting in 33.93. He produced his career peak figure at Canterbury, is proven on rain-affected ground and expect him to be hitting the line hard.

Dangers: Market watch 6. Billiondollarbaby who has had a long-time off but always promised to have the ability. She has trialled well and has a gear change. 7. Six Again has raced wide on both occasions this preparation but has been disappointing. However, she must go in all exotics with a strong starting price profile relative to her rivals. 5. Washington Towers is in career-best form and will roll forward.

How to play it: Warrior Hero WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Warrior Hero runs fifth in a trial at Randwick on April 19

14. Democracy Manifest was a dominant winner first-up for new trainer Chris Waller at Warwick Farm 16 days ago. The three-year-old gelding produced a clear career peak figure and sprinted the entire meeting's third-fastest final 400m/200m splits in 23.52/11.92. Further, he did it in style, and there were decisive margins throughout to confirm the quality of the race. He is proven on rain-affected ground, James McDonald sticks and maps to have all favours. In addition, he brings the best last start figure relative to his rivals, and a repeat of that effort will make him hard to hold out.

Dangers: 17. Prasiolite who resumes, represents value, being a proven fresh performer. The three-year-old filly hit the line hard to win first-up last preparation at Hawkesbury, running one of the quickest final 200m sectionals of the entire meeting in 11.60. She has trialled well enough and may have the last shot. 6. Calgary Queen had all favours winning at Hawkesbury in this grade 21 days ago. Expect an aggressive ride and Jason Collett to use the mare’s fitness edge. 5. Media Starguest and 11. Broken Hill both have knockout profiles.

How to play it: Democracy Manifest WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Democracy Manifest wins at Warwick Farm on April 18

Best Bet: Race 7 # 14 – Democracy Manifest

Next Best: Race 2 # 5 – Kin

Best Value: Race 3 # 7 – Concordia & # 4 – Celtic Harp

Quaddie:

Leg 1: 3,9,11,7
Leg 2: 7,6,10,4
Leg 3: 4,6,7
Leg 4: 17,5,6,11

Combinations = 192

All the fields, form and replays for Wednesday’s Canterbury meeting