By Nick Berney
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday's Canterbury meeting. Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 6:00PM BIVOUAC FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1100 METRES) |
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Debutante 5. Iced Chocolate has shown style/versatility in two trials and found the line well in a recent heat at Rosehill. Further, that was the fastest heat of the morning, and she profiles well for this event. Expect her to roll forward from the wide gate and look to steal the race with her turn of foot coming off the bend.
Dangers: 1. Dazzle Legend resumes off a 135-day break, and he sprinted well to win a recent trial at Warwick Farm. First-up last campaign, he raced well in a high-rating race behind subsequent Group 1 winner Griff. 2. King Of Dubai is wound up for this and can give a sight. Add 6. Single Benefactor who receives a much more positive race setup.
How to play it: Iced Chocolate WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Iced Chocolate runs second in a trial at Rosehill on November 6
Race 2 - 6:30PM DRINKWISE PLATE (1550 METRES) |
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Forgive 9. Sensory's last start at Rosehill nine days ago, where she SPed favourite but had no luck. The filly settled at the rear of the field in a very slow tempo, was building through her gears well in the straight, but was chopped out of it and had her momentum completely haltered. Prior to that start, her run had sectional merit when having the race shape against, and she ran on hard, clocking one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. She looks set to peak here third-up with James McDonald riding for the first time, and the rise in trip looks ideal.
Dangers: 6. Zerkhan was heavily backed last start at Hawkesbury and just went down narrowly in a photo finish. Further, he did have all favours but tried hard in defeat, and there was a big gap to third. He must transfer his wet track form to dry ground, but he is rock-hard fit, and the blinkers go on for the first time. 5. So Outrageous comes through the same race as Sensory, and he was honest there on debut. He can only improve off that effort with race experience and is looking for more ground, which he gets in this event. 3. Kirikan will appreciate being back on drier ground and Nash Rawiller suits.
How to play it: Sensory WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
Sensory last start at Rosehill on November 15
Race 3 - 7:00PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE PLATE (1250 METRES) |
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6. Tulle was a savage drifter in the betting on debut at Kensington 23 days ago, but her run was full of merit. The filly had too much to do after being restrained from a wide draw, got too far back and had the bias against. She made a long-sustained sprint, running the second fastest final 400m split of the meeting, and peaked on her run late. Further, that race rated well relative to the day, and the form out of it has since been confirmed. Everything about her profile suggests she can improve sharply here, and expect her to settle closer with James McDonald riding.
Dangers: 5. Vanquished was honest first-up at Kensington 30 days ago after leading at a good-even tempo but felt the pinch over the final 50m, battling on well to hold third. He will be fitter for that effort and fits a solid Canterbury profile. 4. Tannenburg was run to suit on debut at Gosford 10 days ago, but he made up significant ground by running fast closing splits in a fast-time race. He looks a real improver, and the rise to 1250m second-up is ideal. 1. Botanica resumes here off a long break and showed speed to win a recent at Warwick Farm. First-up last campaign, she was honest in defeat when running third behind subsequent Group 3 winner Parisal. He maps to have all favours and is a key late market watch.
How to play it: Tulle WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds).
Tulle runs third on debut at Kensington on November 1
Race 4 - 7:30PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (1250 METRES) |
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2. Sumo Star's first-up run had merit at Rosehill 13 days ago in Midway grade. The Gary Portelli galloper was coming off the back of an impressive trial, and he was brave in defeat after leading at a fast pace. Further, he never shirked his task to the line, and that race rated well relative to the day after adjustments. The four-year-old has come in on a strong base figure, and his last win came at this track/distance. Expect him to roll forward and be tough to get past with a fitness edge relative to some of his key rivals.
Dangers: 4. Dear Jewel is resuming off a long break and was outsprinted in a recent trial at Warwick Farm but she ran on well. The mare ran very fast time when winning first-up last prep at Hawkesbury, and repeating that performance will put her in the finish. 3. Tumbling, who returns, has always promised ability, and he was impressive when winning his debut last campaign. He has a tricky setup but can undoubtedly overcome that with his turn of foot and James McDonald rides. 1. Little Beginnings is another runner resuming and has trialled well enough leading into this assignment.
How to play it: Sumo Star WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Sumo Star runs second at Rosehill on November 11
Race 5 - 8:00PM PLANET PLUMBING HANDICAP (1900 METRES) |
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6. Sovereign Express is racing well this campaign and his last start had hidden merit at Rosehill in Midway grade. The six-year-old got too far back in a big field from an awkward draw and wasn't suited to the race shape. He made substantial ground, running solid closing splits to his credit, and lines up well here. He receives a significant barrier change, allowing him to be within striking distance, and is suited to stepping out to the 1900m with a solid platform.
Dangers: The blinkers went on for the first time for 8. Ring Ahoy last start, but he had no luck. The gelding was run to suit and travelled well into the race but was checked/blocked at critical stages, losing all his momentum. He can improve sharply here, being third-up and returning to a preferred trip. 4. Hakkaido was heavily backed last start at Rosehill nine days ago and just missed in a tight finish to run second. The rise in trip shouldn't pose an issue, and he finds a very winnable race here with Nash Rawiller sticking. 3. Go Troppo is running to a consistent figure/winning standard for this event, and he is rock hard fit with a positive map.
How to play it: Sovereign Express WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Sovereign Express last start at Rosehill on November 4
Race 6 - 8:30PM RANVET HANDICAP (1550 METRES) |
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1. Clear Choice is racing consistently, and although he had every chance when winning at Rosehill nine days ago, he was strong to the line, holding off the late challengers. Further, the time was solid, and he can step off that effort with a positive map.
Dangers: 3. Buillt wasn't suited to the race shape and got into an awkward spot before the turn last start. However, once clear, he picked himself up and closed off well. He has multiple winning figures, and James McDonald rides. 5. Yankee Hussel overraced when leading at a fast pace last start at Flemington, but she was brave battling on. She drops in grade, receives a significant barrier change and finds a winnable race here. Add 8. The Carpet Bagger to wider exotics.
How to play it: Clear Choice WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
Clear Choice wins at Rosehill on November 15
Race 7 - 9:00PM MACARTHUR KIA EVENING STAR (1250 METRES) |
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Leaning towards 2. Cheerful Legend, who represents value and has a positive race setup here. The gelding ran solid time to win first-up last prep and then had excuses in his previous two starts. He was ridden to win a recent heat at Newcastle and has residual fitness leading into this assignment. In addition, he sprints well fresh, maps to have all favours and has multiple winning figures. Each-way.
Dangers: 1. Dynamic Impact is racing well this prep and is coming out of time/sectional merit races. The gelding is a track specialist, winning four out of four attempts, and he drops sharply in grade here. Expect him to be savaging the line late. 6. Rebel Shadow can bounce back here and is racing better than the form guide reads. The blinkers go back on, and he'll appreciate the step back in distance. 12. Lemaire was honest first-up and market watch on 4. Per Inaway, who resumes here.
How to play it: Cheerful Legend E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Cheerful Legend wins a trial at Wyong on November 15
Race 8 - 9:30PM THE AGENCY PROPERTY MANAGEMENT HANDICAP (1100 METRES) |
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5. Terra Mater looks to have returned well after winning two trials at Warwick Farm and has gone through the line full of energy/not extended. The mare is an improving type with a positive race setup in this event. Additionally, she can rate to win and Nash Rawiller rides.
Dangers: 4. Gilmore had excuses last start when checked/blocked at a critical stage, but to her credit, she picked herself up well and closed off strongly. Expect her to roll forward and use her fitness advantage over some key rivals. 8. Euros has trialled well enough and will have all favours from gate 1. Add 6. Tsarina Sophia to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Terra Mater WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Terra Mater wins a trial at Warwick Farm on November 8
Best Bet: Race 3 # 6 - Tulle
Next Best: Race 4 # 2 - Sumo Star
Best Value: Race 5 # 6 - Sovereign Express
All the fields, form and replays for Friday's Canterbury meeting