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By Brad Gray

1. Astero produced the run of the race in defeat in Midway company two weeks ago. That looks the obvious key form reference for this. He’ll need to turn the tables on Lancaster Bomber but wouldn’t think that’d be too much of a problem. Astero drew wide and was forced back, looping the field, falling short at the finish. It’s a very different set up for the five-year-old on Saturday drawn barrier 2. That’ll give Zac Lloyd, fresh off a treble on Wednesday, the chance to punch up to settle lengths closer. He is a versatile horse. He has been up for a while now but a repeat of either of his last two performances would likely see him justify the tag of early favouritism. Hard to be too confident in Midway races but would be surprised if Astero isn’t in the finish again.

Dangers: 3. Lancaster Bomber bounced back from one poor run, reacting favourably to the blinkers going back on. He was given the run of race but put his rivals away when given the chance. A capacity field awaits 5. Byron on Saturday but he there doesn’t look to be the same amount of pressure on paper as what confronted him at Kembla Grange four weeks ago. He has been a constant at this level all campaign. 7. Miss Einstein comes through the same Lancaster Bomber Midway. She was only first up and will be even better suited to a softer track. Speaking of which, 11. Buba loves wet ground. Her last start effort was better than it reads on paper. 14. Border Control next best.

How To Play It: Astero WIN

8. Waverley gives the impression that he’ll relish getting out to 1400m. The John Sargent-trained youngster comes out of two midweek two-year-old races but both were over 1100m, and he was predictably doing his best work through the line. His pedigree also suggests that he’ll come into his own over this journey, and even out to the mile in time. His last start fourth at Warwick Farm, beaten half a length by Amazonian Lass, the early favourite for a two-year-old feature race at Flemington on Saturday, had even more merit than meets the eye. The race turned into a sprint home. The son of No Nay Never did an excellent job to get as close as he did at the finish given the shape of the race. After being left flatfooted Waverley surged to the line late.

Dangers: 3. The Years has obvious claims on the back of a second in the Black Opal, and that was coming back in trip. That was after putting five lengths on his rivals at Kembla Grange to break his maiden. He’ll roll across to offset the wide draw and take catching. 1. Amur offers an alternate Melbourne form line, having run third to Veight over 1400m last start. He covered ground throughout which told at the finish. That was after looming as the winner at one point. 5. Make A Call doesn’t have any tactical speed but he looks to be desperate for 1400m himself.

How To Play It: Waverley EACH WAY

4. Stroke Of Luck was run down by Alamania at Rosehill last start after presenting like the winner. There is no shame in that. Almania has since come out and run well in a Sydney Cup lead up. Dropping back to his own age fourth up out to 2000m looks a perfect set up. His stablemate Benaud used that same BM78 last year before running well in the Tulloch Stakes. He went on to run a narrow second in the Derby. Angel Of Truth also used that same benchmark race and he did the Tulloch-Derby double thereafter. It’s a likeable pattern. Stroke Of Luck has only had six career starts and like the progression he continues to make. Tom Marquand should be able to hold the back of the speed from the inside gate.

Dangers: 3. Major Beel beat Stroke Of Luck at Warwick Farm second up before Stroke Of Luck turned the tables at Rosehill. There was merit to Major Beel’s fourth, however, as he had to drag the field up to Made By Khan who had set a good tempo in the early stages. He should get a much softer time of it in front here. 7. Awesome John’s three length defeat to Zougotcha in the Phar Lap Stakes reads well for this. Wish Brosnan did more in the Rosehill Guineas to frank that form line but he was too bad to be true so inclined to be forgiving of that. 1. Full Of Sincerity ran third in the NZ Derby, relishing the 2400m. He was exposed early too. That was as a $100 chance, however.

How To Play it: Stroke Of Luck WIN

6. Zeyrek has returned in fantastic order this time back, proving his dominant first up victory was no fluke by running second in the Sky High Stakes. His fresh win, running straight past Cross Talk, who subsequently won a feature at Newcastle, was just as impressive on the clock as it was to the eye. He then came from well back to run Protagonist to a narrow margin and was jumping 1400m straight out to 2000m. The winner is Doncaster Mile bound for William Haggas. The barrier doesn’t do Zeyrek any favours again but in a race without too much obvious speed on paper, perhaps he can race closer. The booking of Tim Clark might be a clue towards that logic. The six-year-old only has to hold his form to be in the finish again, as the market suggests.

Dangers: 1. Huetor loomed like the winner in the Australian Cup Prelude two weeks but his run came to an end late. That should top him off perfectly third up and he found winning form at this stage of his campaign last time in. In fact, his third up record reads 4:3-0-1. The drier the better. 5. Sunshine Rising fought out the finish with Zeyrek last start so he commands plenty of respect again. Nash Rawiller sticks from last start. 8. Third Realm is a two time Listed winner overseas and has run in Group one company out to 2400m in France and the UK. Has had three jumpouts ahead of his return, the latest over 1600m. 10. Cadre Du Noir could be the sharp improver at odds. There doesn’t look to be a designated leader. Forget his Canberra Mile run as he bungled the start.

How To Play It: Zeyrek WIN

9. Coal Crusher was horribly suited first up at Rosehill. He trailed the speed over 1100m in what turned into a sprint home. The five-year-old did a brilliant job to get into fourth. He clocked a sub 33s split for his last 600m. In the context of Coal Crusher being a front-running type that busts his rivals up, he couldn’t have done much more in defeat. He appears to be a quirky customer to ride so it’s significant that Chad Schofield has had a couple of sits on the gelding now. The prospect of a soft track only enhances Coal Crusher’s claims as it blunts the sprint of his rivals. Whether he is quite ready to rip his rivals out of their comfort zone only second up, we’ll see, but he’s sure to give a huge sight regardless.

Dangers: A soft track would be a huge bonus for 10. Waihaha Falls. He resumed last campaign with a luckless fourth in the Sydney Stakes. Two preparations he belted his rivals on a soft track first up. A repeat of either of those performances wins this. 14. Clemenceau comes through the same Cannonball race as Coal Crusher, with the winner since franking the form in the Galaxy, with his run also much better than it reads on paper. He clocked the second quickest closing spits across the meeting. Respect the class of 1. Weona Smartone. He was only beaten two lengths by Private Eye and Mazu when last seen at the races. 5. Dajraan holds some appeal, even over 1200m.

How To Play It: Coal Crusher WIN

4. Atishu looks well set up to tackle 1500m fresh. Nash Rawiller is booked. The prospect of a soft track suits. The rest is up to Atishu. Touch wood, she looks to have put the slow getaways behind her now. Willing to ignore her Rosehill record too. It’s deceptive. She bombed the start in two of those while her two other runs at the track were good. One of those was first up last preparation in the Theo Marks Stakes. Ultimately she found the 1300m a touch too sharp but was only beaten 1.6L by Mr Mozart. The five-year-old ended the campaign in terrific form, culminating in a slashing third in the Ingham. Like the way she has trialled on two occasions ahead of her return.

Dangers: International raider 6. Statement adds plenty of interest. The Joseph O’Brien-trained mare comes off a 5.5L demolition of her rivals over 1500m in Ireland, beating up on the boys. That was 24 weeks ago now. The only knock is how well found she is in betting. A soft track looks perfect for her. 3. Promise Of Success could improve sharply second up, just as she did last campaign when winning The Invitation. She won this race 12 months ago. 5. Argentia will find this mares race much more to her liking, having contested the G1 Canterbury Stakes at WFA three weeks ago. Out to 1500m looks a nice progression for her now too.

How To Play It: Atishu EACH WAY

Gun Kiwi filly 1. Prowess has won her past four starts and comes off a brave win against the older horses in a Group One race at weight for age. She paired off with Campionessa in the straight and was pulling away on the line. Back in a well beaten third was La Crique who the start prior had run Levante to a narrow margin. Levante has subsequently run a beauty in the George Ryder behind Anamoe. That’s an ominous form reference for Prowess’s rivals on Saturday. The perfect barrier gives Mark Zahra the chance to find the back of his obvious threat Pavitra from the get-go and she should take Prowess everywhere she needs to go. The prospect of a soft track is another tick for Prowess, especially with Pavitra preferring a firmer surface.

Dangers: 3. Pavitra was dominant in every sense of the word last start in the Kembla Grange Classic. It’s hard to make a case for anything behind her to turn the tables given the four length margin. She’ll bowl along out in front and take catching. The market has the top two chances well cornered. Don’t be too quick to dismiss 8. Call Di. She did jump $2.40 in the Kembla Grange Classic and had genuine excuses. She was exposed a long way from home and was entitled to feel the pinch late. 9. So Dazzling bounced back in a big way second up in that same race. If she improves the same amount third up out to 2000m, she’s right there in the finish. Want to see fellow Kiwi 4. Polygon again. She’s better than what we saw last start.

How To Play It: Prowess WIN

Class has a history of rising to the top in this race. Find the genuine weight for age horses and you can’t go too far wrong. You have to go back to 2011 to find a winner that paid more than $5.50. Enter 14. Montefilia. The Tancred has been a target race for David Payne all preparation, intending on backing up from the Ranvet where she ran second to Dubai Honour. In the five-year-old’s three most recent runs over 2400m she has won the Metrop and run fourth in two Caulfield Cups. The latest of those was a luckless fourth too. She looks to have returned as well as ever this time back having taken ground off Anamoe first up in the Chipping Norton Stakes. The prospect of a soft track and a genuinely run race, with four go-forward horses engaged, looks the perfect set up for her.

Dangers: 1. Gold Trip looked disappointing on face value in the Ranvet but he wasn’t suited by the lack of early pressure and was always going to flatten off a touch second up having sprinted so well fresh. He too looks suited to a more genuinely run race and he’ll love getting his toe into the ground again. The Sydney Cup is the grand final for international raider 9. Cleveland but we’ve already been reminded of the quality of the foreign stayers this autumn. 2. Knights Order stuck on well having led the Sky High second up giving 3kg to Protagonist. That tops him off perfectly third up out to 2400m and he’ll appreciate a soft track too. 4. Stockman ran second in his race last year behind Duais while 5. Arapaho has claims too.

How To Play It: Montefilia WIN

Low draws are the key to 2. Skyman. The seven-year-old has won three of his past six starts, all three from barriers four or lower. It gives his rider the chance to hold a prominent position before still reeling off his powerful finish. The wider draws see him give away impossible starts. It was interesting that Chris Waller kept Skyman to the mile at the backend of last campaign. He was sharp enough to cope and was only beaten four lengths in The Hunter behind Vilana and In The Congo over 1300m. Go back to August last year and he camped on the back of Cross Talk in the Rowley Mile and went past him in the straight. Whether he can settle that close here is debatable but he finds Nash Rawiller and with the right breaks, is sure to have a say in the finish.

Dangers: 5. Cross Talk atoned for his first up defeat as an odds on favourite with an all-the-way win at Newcastle last start. That was his first win on a good track. He’ll be even more comfortable on a track with more give. Catch me if you can, especially now being hard fit third up. The Ajax Stakes looks a key form reference for this and 4. Bandersnatch should have just about won that race. He tackles the same track and trip two weeks later. 18. Cuban Royale has finished on the hammer of Cross Talk in his past two starts and finds himself holding his career best form. A soft track could see 12. Waterford rediscover his best form while big watch on import 14. Times Square, who is also better on wet tracks.

How To Play It: Skyman EACH WAY

6. Maotai was tested beyond 1200m for the first time two weeks ago and didn’t he pass with flying colours! The four-year-old settled in behind a moderate tempo and despite having to bustle out of a pocket, he exploded when clear. He not only clocked slick closing splits but also a fast overall time. This race is no harder with the horse he beat a fortnight ago in 7. Tamerlane being the early favourite. Wouldn’t think that he’d have to do much more than repeat that performance to go back-to-back. The son of Not A Single Doubt has always been a talent but has been his own worst enemy. Perhaps the penny has dropped now. Want to see him do it again before we can trust him implicitly but at the price, more than happy to take the leap of faith.

Dangers: Terrified of the import 11. Substantial. He finds a home with Peter and Paul Snowden and he really caught the eye in his one barrier trial at Randwick, matching motors with In The Congo. The early money trail is already there too. It’s been a while since we’ve seen the best of 10. Katalin but the freshen up gives her the chance to bounce back. 16. Attractable was well held by Maotai first up but respect the confident market support there. Should be able to settle closer. 7. Tamerlane has a frightfully bad second up record which is a concern. 13. Ita rarely runs poorly and has knockout claims at double figure odds.

How To Play It: Maotai WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill meeting