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Brad Gray's Tips For Royal Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 12:20PM NJT SUPPORTS KATE NIPPERESS (1100 METRES)

Not thrilled about the early price being served up for 3. Snapback but he gets a lot in his favour to make a winning debut. Trained by the Snowdens, ridden by James McDonald, two nice trials and he could find himself in front. The son of Snitzel was the first horse backed when markets went up too, despite bookmakers taking no risks with his opening quote. His full sister Wee Nessy won a Listed race at Flemington on debut earlier this year. Snapback was the first into stride in his most recent Canterbury trial before landing outside of the leader. From there he settled and travelled sweetly to the line under no urgings. The one two-year-old taking ground off him late in the heat was his stablemate Godfather who was sent around $1.45 on debut at Eagle Farm last Saturday and won by two lengths.

Dangers: Can see how the market has missed 6. Dorothy Gail. Her heat clocked a slow overall time at Kembla Grange over 790m and she only had one trial. However, she was kidding to her rivals in the straight giving the impression she’d have dashed past if she was asked to. It’s significant that 4. Achlys is one of only two youngsters here with race experience. That was in the Gimcrack where she ran on into fourth from well back in the field. Only the winner Platinum Jubilee had faster closing splits. Gets the winkers on. 7. Lazzago has trialled sweetly on two occasions. 2. Crucible looks to be a big strong two-year-old, the same as his sire Exosphere. His breeding suggests he could find a couple too sharp.

How To Play It: Snapback WIN

Race 2 - 12:55PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

7. Master Of Rewards was the only on speed survivor from a Highway Handicap last start behind The Dramatist. The four-year-old was brave in defeat finishing fourth given that first, second and fourth all settled in the second half of the field. There doesn’t promise to be the same frantic early tempo in this week’s running. He also drops back to Class 2 company and finds Zac Lloyd again. Given where he is drawn, Master Of Rewards should lob into a perfect trailing position with the only other speed horses drawn wider. Given two weeks ago was only his sixth career start he’s still got scope to improve into this fourth up. The only knock is that he was sent around $41 and we’re being asked to take considerably less now. Still worth an each way ticket.

Dangers: 4. Indicative was caught off the track first up at Mudgee as a $2.60 favourite. Forget he ever went around over the 1200m. He still only has a maiden win to his name but like the form reference through Bootscooter prior to that. 1. Zaru won a Highway back in August before being beaten by narrow margins at his next two. He resumed with a fast-finishing second at Newcastle first up suggesting that he has returned better than ever. He’d be on top if not for the barrier. 3. Super Extreme also faces a problematic draw forcing him to give away a huge head start. 15. Lady Tabloid boxed on well through the same Master Of Rewards race while 10. Southern Appeal has knockout claims getting straight out to 1400m second up.

How To Play It: Master Of Rewards EACH WAY

Race 3 - 1:30PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

1. Liberty Sun should be able to spear forward and take up the running, offsetting the wide draw. He looks the logical leader. From there it comes down to the amount of work he’s forced to do in the middle stages. If Zac Lloyd manages to pinch a breather he is going to hard to catch, even with 60.5kg after the claim. Like the depth to his form lines. He won a Midway over this same track and trip three starts ago despite covering ground throughout, holding off Either Oar. He then tackled BM84 company and was run down by Norwegian Bliss before being beaten for speed back to 1100m in a fast run race behind Dehorned Unicorn. He would’ve finished closer if not for running out of room late. Only has to hold his form to be thereabouts again.

Dangers: 2. Broken Arrows might be a seven-year-old but he has returned as well as ever. He was cruelly denied by a bob of the heads at Kembla Grange before finishing half a length away behind Vreneli at Rosehill. Comes back in grade for this, maps well and another dry track suits. 14. Mr Rock It looks dangerous with 52.5kg on his back again and given how well he ran in Midway company four weeks ago. 5. With Your Blessing had the edge knocked off him second up and wasn’t sharp enough for 1000m. He’s much better placed out to 1200m now third up and he finds James McDonald. 13. Silk Tie is going better than the form guide suggests while the extra journey looks suitable for 7. Espirito now.

How To Play It: Liberty Sun EACH WAY

Race 4 - 2:05PM NJT SUPPORTS INJURED AND ILL JOCKEYS (2000 METRES)

6. Worthily gets the perfect set up to turn the tables on 4. Mission Phoenix from last start. The six-year-old travelled like he was going to go straight past him last start at Rosehill over 1800m but looked to peak on his run. He was only second up so should improve again off that performance and he drops from 59kg to 55kg, getting a 2kg weight swing. More significantly than the weights is the amount of pressure Mission Phoenix will be forced to absorb via Waterhouse and Bott-trained pair Zoumon and Military Mission. On paper it looks set up for a horse to stalk what promises to be a genuinely run 2000m and pounce late. Worthily looks to be that horse. Peaking third up, maps beautifully and shouldn’t be left with any excuses.

Dangers: 9. Secret Glamour jumps from a BM72 against three and four-year-olds into harder grade but the way she attacked the line in a moderately run race last start was that of a mare capable of making the leap. The margin flattered her rivals. She clocked the ninth fastest last 200m split of the meeting. Not bad at the end of 1800m. Plummets to 51kg and she should relish a more genuinely run race. 4. Mission Phoenix draws to get the first crack at the front. Sustained speed is his asset but the pressure in the middle stages with decide his fate. He is flying with a run of dry tracks. 2. Zoumon is also a control freak. He has been dominant in his last two starts but he got complete control. This is a very different set up. 12. Bacio Del Mist fits in well through that Mission Phoenix form line. Not sure where 1. Military Mission gets to in the run but a staying test plays to his stamina.

How To Play It: Worthily WIN

Race 5 - 2:40PM MERRY CHRISTMAS MEMBERS HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

6. Alpha One began last preparation winning a 900m Newcastle maiden before three starts later starting favourite against Giga Kick in the G2 Vain Stakes. Giga Kick nailed him on the line and the rest is history now. We saw Alpha One just once thereafter but he badly underperformed. Nothing was highlighted in the stewards report but it was too bad to be true. The speedy colt was sent for a spell thereafter. Just the one trial ahead of his return but he’s only ever had one hitout in his two previous campaigns. We saw everything we needed to see from Alpha One there, showing his customary gate speed before cruising to the line. He was always in control. For a 1000m scamper on Saturday, you’d expect more speed but Alpha One shouldn’t have any trouble finding the front.

Dangers: 12. Shadow Vampire is chasing four straight wins. The Iowna Merc form line from three weeks ago at Warwick Farm reads well now. He’ll see most of his rivals turning for home but look out late with just 51.5kg on his back, 7kg less than last start. 2. Invincible Kiss is forever underestimated by the market. She maps to camp on the back of Alpha One and get her chance to fill a placing adding plenty to trifectas and first fours. 1. Quick Tempo finally had everything fall into place last start at Kembla Grange and he delivered. 9. Depth That Varies has won five from 11 over 1000m and Kristen Buchanan has got him going as well as ever. Respect any market confidence for 11. Vowmaster. He’s better than he showed last campaign.

How To Play It: Alpha One WIN

Race 6 - 3:20PM YES YES YES FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

The gamble is whether 1. Arnold can rediscover his best form. His form tapered off slightly at the backend of last campaign but he was ridden outside of the leader on both occasions and didn’t look comfortable on the two wettest tracks he had ever raced on. He did start $1.70 in BM78 company in one of those defeats and then $4.60 in a BM88 when fourth to Hosier and Casino Kid. The four-year-old was given an easy time in his one trial ahead of his return. Barrier two doesn’t look ideal given how he built through the gears to win first and second up so impressively last preparation but we’ll leave that to Brenton Avdulla. Back onto a dry track and in this grade, with the trade off being 59kg, he's well set up to bounce back. He was being spoken about in the same breath as Waterford six months ago.

Dangers: 8. Green Shadows has to cope with a drop back to 1400m but he is three and a half weeks between runs and looked particularly sharp in a tickover trial since, with the blinkers on. They stay on for race day. Was grabbed on the line by the promising Kovalica last start at Warwick Farm. 9. Lekvarte will be another one thundering home at the finish, just as she did first up over an unsuitable 1250m. It was an outstanding return and she gets another dry track to showcase her turn of foot again.

How To Play It: Arnold WIN

Race 7 - 4:00PM NJT HONOURS PAM O'NEILL OAM (1600 METRES)

16. Manderboss is flying without reward this preparation. He never saw daylight second up, in what has proven to be a handy race, before striking two races where the leaders crawled, and dually won. The bigger field here promises a truer tempo and the soft gate should see regular rider Quayde Krogh be able to settle in the first dozen. The four-year-old showed sufficient tactical speed two weeks ago to think he’d find himself in a similar spot out to the mile now. His form line through subsequent Mudgee Cup winner Camaguey ties in well given there was nothing between them at Kembla Grange behind Tamerlane. The run of good tracks we’re having at the moment is bringing the best out of the son of Vadamos and there is enough in the early price to attack him confidently each way.

Dangers: 1. French Bonnet has now won seven from 19 and just keeps fronting up. It was the same last start in the Nowra Cup when scoring a narrow, but typically determined win. There’s no hiding from the big weights she is forced to lump now but she’s a proven weight carrier. 6. Spangler launched late at Canterbury to win at a track that really shouldn’t suit him. The placegetters Media Starguest and Prince Aurelius have since franked the form. The knock is how far back in the run he’ll be. 8. Camaguey has obvious claims again. 17. Naval Seal is dangerous back in trip to the mile with four weeks between runs. He was said to have not run out 2000m last start. 4. Deficit’s last start run suggests that another win is close.

How To Play It: Manderboss EACH WAY

Race 8 - 4:40PM RANVET HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

9. Cotehele only has to hold his form to be fighting out the finish again. He was left in front a fair way from home at Rosehill last start and was picked off in the final strides by Cavalier Charles. Likely to find himself in a similar stalking position in this.

Dangers: 1. Coal Crusher jumped favourite in the G3 Festival Stakes last start but didn’t appear to run out the 1500m. The inclusion of 8. Constant Flight in this field looks problematic for him here. If the leaders cut at each other, look for a trademark close from 12. Night Of Power first up at odds. 10. Shaquero sets up well, improving off his last start sixth. 4. Superium came back onto the radar after catching the eye late last Saturday while 3. Amish Boy brings a different Melbourne form line.

How To Play It: Cotehele WIN

Race 9 - 5:20PM ATC TREE PLANTING FOR QUEEN'S JUBILEE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

15. Dehorned Unicorn was only a narrow winner first up but the margin was deceptive. It was an outstanding win. A race fit duo looked to have given their rivals the slip over the Rosehill 1100m turning for home with a showing of sustained speed but Dehorned Unicorn picked off Authentic Jewel in the final stride. He was only first up. It was only the third time he’d seen a good track and he’s now two from three, showing a brilliant turn of foot on top of the ground. He clocked the fourth fastest last 200m split all meeting and ran faster overall time than the Listed Starlight Stakes, albeit off a faster lead speed. With just 51.5kg on his back after the claim, getting out to 1200m and a soft gate, he’s been given the perfect platform to improve again.

Dangers: There is enough against 5. I Am Me to tread a little warily in the context of taking an odds on quote. She has been in two softly run 1100m races in her two runs back that have turned into a sprint home. Granted, she couldn’t have won either any easier but this is a different set up having to extend to 1200m. Not loving barrier 1 but James McDonald probably offsets that. Lesser cases have to be made for 6. On The Lead and 12. Super Pursuit through that same I Am Me race. Super Pursuit in particular profiles like a big improver given he spent 28 weeks on the sidelines prior and went to the line largely untested first up. The knock is the start he’ll be forced to give away from the barrier.

How To Play It: Dehorned Unicorn WIN

Race 10 - 5:55PM FURPHY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Sweet Ruby has been fantastic in her two runs back this time in. She found 1100m too sharp first up in what talked into a sprint home before backing that up with a similar run behind Huon. Another couple of strides and she wins. The four-year-old clocked the fastest last 600m split of the meeting in defeat. The daughter of Rubick steps back into Saturday company but love that she swaps Canterbury for Randwick and gets out to 1400m now third up. She should be able to park up much closer in the run from the soft draw. Go back to last preparation and over this trip she finished 1.5 lengths third behind Flying Crazy and Military Expert. Forget her two runs either side of that on heavy tracks. Underrated mare that has returned as well as ever.

Dangers: James McDonald gets his first race day sit on 6. Frumos. The five-year-old reappears second up looking for redemption after what happened two weeks ago at Rosehill. We know she is a classy mare capable of charging through the grades. The only knock is the price. 2. Bella Rouge could improve with more positive tactics. She is trending the right way this time back and looks ready now fourth up. 1. Nothinsweetaboutme is likely to be at her top for a lot this race but she’ll give a sight, even with 62kg on her back. She resumed a winner over 1400m last preparation on a heavy track, albeit with 5kg less. 9. Our Modena comes through the right races and looks to peak herself now.

How To Play It: Sweet Ruby EACH WAY

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting

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