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By Brad Gray

11. El Castello scored a determined first up win at Warwick Farm. The margin was only narrow and it was a midweek maiden but there was merit to the performance. He was wide the trip shouldering 61.5kg yet his class saw him scramble home. The 1400m at Warwick Farm is a track and trip where it is no great disadvantage to be posted three deep but it certainly wasn’t ideal. The fourth horse Johnny The Kid has since bolted in. As has Tenbury Wells back in sixth. The runner up Monte Veebee was only three lengths away in Saturday’s Ming Dynasty. The other pointer to El Castello’s chances is how well Powers Of Opal ran in Midway company two weeks ago coming off similar midweek maiden form. El Castello proved to be a handy two-year-old running second to Broadsiding in the Fernhill out to the mile before floundering in the heavy conditions in the Champagne.

Dangers: 7. Flying Bandit is a lightly-raced four-year-old with Kerry Parker. He ran home in fast time to just miss at Hawkesbury first up. The lack of market support late suggested he’d improve with the run. Maps to be closer. It doesn’t look pretty for 2. Gold Pattern on paper having drawn wide. Will need a lot to fall into place given the start she’ll be forced to give away. 9. Cirebon was much better fourth up. Has to drop back in trip but he’ll make his own luck. 14. Kervette is going well this time back and appreciated the step out to the mile last start at Wyong.

How To Play It: El Castello WIN

5. She’s Exotic has won three from three with the winning margins increasing each time she stepped out. The four-year-old made light work of her rivals at Armidale last start back in May, having gone straight to the front. The 4.7 length margin flattered her rivals. She could have won by further. She was sent around $1.70 favourite and justified that. Trainer Cody Morgan tipped her out with an eye on a spot in the Kosciuszko. It’s show off day on Saturday as she needs to make a statement. James McDonald has been booked. Looked great trialling alongside Somerton Sniper at Taree most recently. She is a proven 1000m horse and is versatile. She has won from in front, out the back and somewhere in the middle. The barrier is perfect here, allowing McDonald to sum things up early.

Dangers: 9. Saratoga Power ran good time himself when rushing home over the top at Muswellbrook. It was impressive. He appreciated getting back on top of the ground. 2. Perennial has had two cracks at Highways and come up short but he wasn’t beaten far and you must respect his starting price in both of those starts. 3. Nipotino is a proven Highway performer but might find 1000m a touch sharp.

How To Play It: She’s Exotic WIN

6. Bear On The Loose made a winning start to his Australian career back in June, landing good late bets. The UK import went straight to the front having absorbed early pressure before finding in the straight to beat a subsequent winner in Don Diego De Vega. Second up he found himself wide and working in the early stages. That brought about his undoing and he only managed to box home at the finish beaten four lengths by Aramco. Respect how firm he was in betting, jumping an odds on favourite. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott backed off the five-year-old thereafter giving him a 10 week spell. He’s had two trials since, with the latest the pick of them. He trialled similar to prior to winning first up last time in. Nash Rawiller sticks, still has upside with seven starts to his name and he maps to get control in front.

Dangers: 1. Galeron hasn’t won for just shy of two years now. He loomed to break the drought at Randwick last start over the mile but lacked the killer punch to reel in Major Beel. Back in grade slightly here. Runs well given the make up of this field but doesn’t make a habit of winning. 7. Snowman is the tricky horse to line up. Found himself riding the speed at Caulfield first up before folding up late to be well beaten. The tempo backed off in the middle stages so he wasn’t left with an excuse. There’s good depth to his three-year-old form and he was well backed prior to his first up failure. Might be worth another chance. The market might tell the story with him. 2. St Lawrence worked home well in the Goulburn Cup a month ago.

How To Play It: Bear On The Loose WIN

10. Well Timed was confidently backed at Randwick last start over 1200m. It turned out to be a leader dominated race on a quick surface. Uzziah ran his rivals into the ground with Flying Destiny, who settled second, filling the quinella. Well Times kept finding the line in the manner of a horse looking for 1400m now. He gets that here. There wasn’t a lot between Well Timed and a few of his key rivals that he meets again on Saturday but the improving four-year-old looks to get the best set up. He strikes this fourth up out in trip and maps to get the run of the race. Nash Rawiller has ridden him in all three starts this campaign and he sticks. Suspect we’ll see the son of Nicconi improve again on Saturday. Well found in early betting but rightly so.

Dangers: There’s an easy case to make that 17. Congregation has the most improvement coming through the Uzziah race given he was 49 weeks between runs. The four-year-old was rock solid in betting himself. Hit a flat spot when asked to quicken but his last 200m was equal to that of Well Timed. 18. Sharp Shock has a sneaky knockout hope. Like him out to 1400m having run well behind World Alliance first up, switching back to the inferior inside. 1. Hollywood Hero and 6. Thunderlips have claims but the barriers look problematic.

How To Play It: Well Timed WIN

Could go a number of different ways in a stacked Kingstown Town this year but have to be with 12. Golden Path at the price. The five-year-old has been exceptional in winning his past two by margins. The first of those he put 3.5 lengths on Touristic which ties the form in with Eliyass before he backed that up with another dominant win in the Premiers Cup Prelude beating Manzoice, luckless in a Wyong Cup and Redstone Well, a runaway winner of the Tatts Cup. Getting out to 2000m has seen the gelding go to a whole new level. He comes into this off a career peak. That was six weeks ago now but he was five weeks between runs when winning the McKell Cup. His recent trial alongside 11. Ceolwulf was also eye catching. Has tactical speed to offset the gate and settle in the first half dozen. Just needs a few things to fall into place early.

Dangers: 11. Ceolwulf has returned a gelding and he’s found a turn of foot. In his three-year-old autumn campaign he looked a genuine 2400m horse, which was vindicated with a narrow second to Riff Rocket in the Derby. His last start win at Rosehill over 1500m was sharp. He showed acceleration from the 400-200m to put the race away in a few strides. Have admire the tenacity of 6. Eliyass. He shrugged off Touristic at Randwick last start to make it eight wins from 10 starts. Also proved himself capable on top of the ground there too, being his first run away from wet and synthetic tracks. 18. Zardozi looks well placed out to 2000m third up. Disappointing last start but she’s better than that. Respect her starting price. 7. Serpentine will take running down.

How To Play It: Golden Path WIN

Chris Waller has had an endless list of gun four-year-old mares in his stable over the years. 14. Scarlet Oak could be the latest. We’ll learn more after Saturday but there was a lot to like about what she did in her first Australian campaign over the autumn into the winter. She produced a brilliant turn of foot to win at Newcastle before winning The Roses out to 2000m. Forgive her run in the Queensland Oaks where she pulled up with a respiratory issue. Has been given two quiet trials to tune up for her return. Drops to 53kg, finds an in form Kerrin McEvoy and maps to do no early work from barrier 1 tagging what should be a fast pace set up by Felix Majestic and Phearson. Market support could be telling.

Dangers: 1. Amenable mixed his form a touch last campaign but he ran a narrow second in the G1 All Aged Stakes at WFA. He may have been flattered by the testing heavy conditions but it’s a reminder of his talent. Has trialled well. 4. Tom Kitten resumed a gelding at Rosehill five weeks ago and proved too classy for that field. He put them to the sword. Has been freshened since then with James Cummings eyeing off the Epsom. James McDonald is the right man for the job but it’s a nasty looking gate on paper. 16. Mchale is one of the best $81 shots you’ll see on a Saturday. He profiles similar to last year’s winner Rediener and loves dry tracks. Waller has won six of the past 11 runnings of this race which offers Epsom exemption. 8. Gringotts put three together last campaign and gives the impression there is still more to come.

How To Play It: Scarlet Oak WIN

6. Autumn Glow is the standout filly in Sydney so far. She has dominated her rivals to make it two from two to kick off her career and she has been emphatic on both occasions. On debut she beat Dawn Service and he subsequently won a Listed race at Flemington. She backed that up by winning the Up And Coming Stakes beating Wanaruah, the current favourite for Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas Prelude and Snack Bar who ran third in the Ming Dynasty thereafter. The Autumn Sun filly drops back to her own sex and steps out to 1400m. The only knock is the lack of pressure in the race and where she has drawn. Still backing her to be good enough to overcome that with James McDonald jumping aboard for the first time on race day.

Dangers: 10. Snow In May shouldered into the clear to win well at Newcastle first up. She doesn’t have the depth of form of Autumn Glow but she remains unbeaten and has upside. Also has the benefit of barrier 1. That can see her settle close up by default. Still not sure what to make of the Silver Shadow and Furious Stakes. 1. Manaal and 2. Ameena have fought out the finish on both occasions but have hardly stamped their dominance. They also face tricky maps without much speed engaged. Could Ameena be given a dig early? Hasn’t been the cleanest into stride this time back, however. 4. El Morzillo was first up in the Furious and should have finished closer. Should relish 1400m. She too isn’t suited by a potentially slow run race though.

How To Play It: Autumn Glow WIN

6. Fangirl lost little in defeat when third behind Via Sistina in the Winx Stakes first up. The winner went through them while Fangirl was forced to circle the field. That was perhaps the difference in the end. She’ll need to turn the tables on underrated stablemate Zougotcha, who has the advantage of tactical speed, but the step out to the mile and another good track sets up for Fangirl to atone for a month ago. The barrier makes things a touch tricky for James McDonald and in the context of her price, her settling position is of some concern but a smaller field helps and if she can find a back to follow at the right time, she should have too much firepower late. Her career best victory came over the Randwick mile last campaign.

Dangers: 7. Zougotcha looked the winner first up only to be grabbed in the final stride. She too boasts a great Randwick record. Will bounce out and track the speed, likely tagging 5. Major Beel. Hard mare to knock being a three-time Group One winner. 8. Hinged hasn’t won for a long time but she went agonisingly close to breaking through in the Chelmsford. It was only a bob of the heads that denied her. Draws barrier 1 again and Nash sticks. 2. Detonator Jack deserves respect also coming through the Winx Stakes while 3. Royal Patronage impressed first up.

How To Play It: Fangirl WIN

Can’t find any reason as to why 6. I Am Me won’t win again. The Ciaron Maher-trained six-year-old returned with a bang when winning the Concorde Stakes. It was a career best victory which bodes well for her upcoming spring campaign. Another win here and she may force her way into the Everest picture. The step out to 1100m suits now and she again maps to get the run of the race. A drop in weight to 55kg sees Nash Rawiller unable to stay with her but James McDonald jumps on. It’s a near identical set up in terms of where she should find herself in the run, stalking the speed. Loved the way she accelerated to win two weeks ago to hold off Bella Nipotina. Her Randwick record reads 4:3-0-0 while her 1100m record is 6:4-0-0.

Dangers: Can see why the early money has trimmed up the price of 12. Mumbai Muse. Se too comes into this of a peak performance in the Sheraco Stakes. It was a hot race won by Sunshine In Paris and she made the winner work late, with Joliestar back in third. Strikes this on the seven day back up and should be trucking in behind the speed herself from the draw. It’s a trickier map that confronts 1. Private Eye. However, he is a horse that has won when ridden ‘ugly’ in the past. Three wide wouldn’t hold any fears for him. It’s how he won this very race 12 months ago. 2. Aft Cabin didn’t get the breaks fall his way in the Concorde. Winkers go on for the first time but the barrier ensures he’ll be out the back, likely ridden for luck. 7. Lady Of Camelot next best.

How To Play It: I Am Me WIN

2. Kibou stuck on bravely at Rosehill second up in a race set up for the closers. It was a busy finish but his run has as much merit as any going forward. This is no harder. Might be looking for 1400m now third up but he’ll be riding the speed.

Dangers: It was hard to miss the first up run of 3. Moravia in the Concorde. He savaged the line alongside some of the country’s best sprinters. That reads well coming back to a BM88 second up. Has to jump 1000m to 1200m, which is never an easy transition. 14. Atmospheric Rock plummets 10kg from contesting Highway Handicap company in two runs back. Looks to be going as well as ever having won well first up before running a luckless third last start behind 12. Melody Again.

How To Play It: Kibou WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Randwick meeting