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Brad Gray's Tips For Royal Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 12:20PM ARROWFIELD STUD HIGHWAY (1000 METRES)

15. I’m Not Slew should bounce out to take up the running and prove hard to catch from there. The speedy four-year-old is going to corner like the winner. She confirmed first up that she is a dry tracker. Her form was awful last campaign but she resumed on a heavy track. It’s easy to forget that she’s only had six race starts. Her form on good tracks reads 4:2-2-0. Two weeks ago she worked early to settle outside of the leader over 1100m only for Sussu to run her down. She didn’t shirk her task, holding down second. She strips fitter for that, finds the front and back to 1000m looks a plus if anything. If there isn’t too much pressure being applied in the middle stages, with several other speed horses drawn wide, she’ll be in the finish.

Dangers: 5. Extra Flash kept finding the line in that same Susso Highway last start despite covering ground throughout. That shouldn’t be a concern here. He’s a lightly raced improver himself. 17. Penthouse brings exceptionally strong form lines into this. The three-year-old ran third in the Magic Millions Classic at Ballarat after leading. She has a 2L third to In Secret to her name as a two-year-old. The barrier looks problematic, however. Not sure where she lands. 1. Salire produced a visually stunning win at Randwick five weeks ago. The numbers weren’t quite as impressive but he is flying at the moment.

How To Play It: I’m Not Slew WIN

Race 2 - 12:55PM THE BOB INGHAM AO MIDWAY (1600 METRES)

1. Excelladus finally draws a barrier. The four-year-old has been undone by the gate at his past couple. Brenton Avdulla, who has ridden Excelladus three times for a win and two placings, shouldn’t have any trouble holding a prominent position. Could even settle as close as third on the fence. He was 1500m in the Four Pillars back to 1400m last start when second to Astero, and was coming back at the winner through the line. That was despite being forced to make a wide, sustained run from barrier 14. Fourth up out to the mile parking in behind the speed where all of his main dangers will be in the second half looks a lovely set up for him to bring up win number three. Deserves to be favourite.

Dangers: 3. Floating shouldn’t be dismissed too quickly after failing to back up his 3.5 length Midway romp at Newcastle. More was expected from him at Rosehill but it was a deep BM78 won by Mission Phoenix. Back to the mile and Midway company sees him well placed to bounce back. 8. Prince Aurelius does his best racing from in front and he shouldn’t have a whole heap of competition for that spot in this. The set up is right for him to find his best form again, a dry track, mile and control in front. 4. King Ratel gets the blinkers back on and there was an immediate response to the shades going on last preparation which saw him win a mile Midway. Takes a while to wind up so Nash Rawiller looks a perfect fit for the six-year-old.

How To Play It: Exelladus WIN

Race 3 - 1:30PM THE JACK INGHAM AO HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

14. Operative has been given perfect rides to win two on the bounce this preparation but he maps exactly the same here. Just trailing the speed. Has to cope with a drop back from 1200m to 1100m but can’t see that posing a problem as he is a sharp horse. The improving three-year-old comes through a Rosehill race that has already produced two subsequent winners, one of them being Felix Majestic who smashed the clock to beat Garza Blanca on Saturday. Drops down to the minimum with 54kg on his back and again we’re getting an each way price to find out whether he can make another leap forward. The market keeps overlooking him to some extent. Not sure why. He is a colt with gate speed, good racing manners and a turn of foot.

Dangers: 3. Sacrimony was suited first up by the hectic tempo and the fact that he found the best part of the Kembla track but he clocked the second fastest last 600m split of the meeting in defeat. The 1100m suits better. The knock is the head start he’s going to give away again. It sounds ridiculous saying that a mare that has won three of her six starts is yet to realise her potential but you get the impression we’ve only scraped the surface with 4. Billiondollarbaby. Hard to not be taken by the way she has trialled this time back. Interested to see what 9. Anagain can do at her first outing for Joe Pride. She’s better than her record suggests. 16. Iowna Merc is talented.

How To Play It: Operative WIN

Race 4 - 2:05PM MAX BRENNER CHRISTMAS CUP (2400 METRES)

10. Rondino is a better horse with room to wind up so there’s a case to be made that the wide draw is a positive. He showed last start that he doesn’t have the tactical speed to use a low draw anyways. All it did was cause him trouble. With even luck in the ATC Cup last start he is fighting out the finish with Bonny Ezra. That should top him off perfectly to get back out to 2400m. The last time he raced over this trip he put a gap on his rivals, albeit in BM72 grade. He might be five now but it’s taken a while for the son of Shamus Award to realise his staying potential. We’re only seeing that now. The gamble is the start he’ll give away but on top of the ground he has a turn of foot to make up the necessary late ground.

Dangers: 1. Dr Drill is now 133 weeks without a win but he continues to prove competitive. He wasn’t beaten far in the ATC Cup himself and keen to see him back out to 2400m. Draws to do no early work in the run, flopping out into a prominent position. 4. Bonny Ezra was given a peach of a ride to win at $31 two weeks ago. He’s considerably shorter now that he’s on everybody’s radar again but you’d think he’s even better suited out to this trip now. Last start was just a bonus on the way through. Nash Rawiller has ridden 2. Warning three times for two wins. He is a stayer that need a jockey to standover him. 5. Regal Lion gets his preferred dry track and comes through the same Bonny Ezra form reference.

How To Play it: Rondino WIN

Race 5 - 2:40PM INGLIS NURSERY (1000 METRES)

8. Facile has been a standout from the trials. The filly clocked fast time when winning her first trial at Warwick Farm by more than four lengths. She then proved that was no fluke with an equally dominant display at Canterbury where she left Gimcrack Stake winner Platinum Jubliee under pressure and three lengths behind her. The market hasn’t missed her due to the nature of her trial wins but if she transfers that trial form to the track on debut, they won’t see which way she went. Brenton Avdulla has been aboard in both of those heats and it’s no surprise to see him stick on debut. The daughter of Trapeze Artist still has to do it on race day but she’s well poised to add her name to an impressive Inglis Nursery honour roll.

Dangers: 4. The Little Pumper’s latest trial win at Warwick Farm was significantly slower than Facile’s two heats later but liked the way he responded when ask to find the line. He doesn’t look a jump and run style two year old. He profiles to be strong late for the in form stable of Waterhouse and Bott. 12. Saltaire went very close to rolling $1.12 favourite 6. Blanc De Blanc on debut at Newcastle. Saltaire draws a much kinder gate to potentially turn the tables. Don’t understand the price discrepancy. That’s no knock on Blanc De Blanc. There’s obviously a rap on the son of I Am Invincible. That pair’s race experience is invaluable here. The same can be said for 3. Disneck but he maps to see most of his rivals turning for home.

How To Play It: Facile WIN

Race 6 - 3:20PM WESTS GROUP MACARTHUR HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

3. Authentic Jewel was beaten a lip at Rosehill over 1100m last start by Dehorned Unicorn. The speedy four-year-old has found her form again. She got an easy enough time in the early stages having parked outside of a moderate tempo but suspect she gets control looking at Saturday’s map. The obvious query for most is her running out a strong 1200m but the only other previous time she tackled the trip she was run down late by Bacchanalia in the Listed Gosford Guineas where King Of Sparta ran third. Fourth up, she rolls straight to the front and reunites with Jay Ford who has been aboard in three of her four career wins. With the other speed horse her stablemate 3. Queen Bellisimo, she should get every chance to go one better than two weeks ago.

Dangers: 1. Brookspire is a very smart mare at her best and with a different set up she’d perhaps be too good for this field. She still might be, especially given how well she has trialled. However, first up over 1200m, she’s yet to win below 1400m, and from the wide draw, there’s a lot against her. She’ll peak come the Magic Millions carnival. 6. Twice As Special was only beaten three lengths by Authentic Jewel last start and ran out of room late. She’s entitled to be long odds given her strike rate but like the booking of Tim Clark. Always has knockout claims. 7. Kir Royale has obstacles to overcome herself. She is typically a speed horse. Perhaps she can get outside of the leader with early intent. 2. Barossa Rosa best of the rest.

How To Play It: Authentic Jewel WIN

Race 7 - 4:00PM RACING & SPORTS RAZOR SHARP HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

10. Brigantine is eight weeks between runs but the ease of a tickover trial win since at Hawkesbury suggests he can pick up where he left off. That was a third in the Silver Eagle behind Vilana and Mr Mozart. That reads well for this Listed assignment. Brigantine tackled this same track and trip first up and came from last to round up his rivals. The map looks much kinder for him here, parking up just forward of midfield with Tim Clark doing the steering. It doesn’t seem to matter what the track rating is for this four-year-old either. He ran second to Fangirl the last time he raced on a good track, albeit out to the mile. Drops to 53kg and if he holds his form, he’ll be right in the finish. At the odds, have to be with him over Waihaha Falls.

Dangers: 4. Waihaha Falls plummets 7kg from last start at Newcastle, which may have anchored him late when second to Coal Crusher. Want to trust that form reference as it was a deep BM88. Would be on top if the track was rain affected. That’s the only knock, whether he’s a touch more dynamic with the sting out. 8. Much Much Better has won his past three first up, the latest two at double figure odds. He shouldn’t be underestimated here mapping well and on the back of a stylish trial win. 5. Sky Command is in fantastic form and will bounce out to make her own luck again. She proved the 1200m isn’t an issue when winning the G3 Nivison. 6. Najmaty looks the best of the closers. She still clocked very fast closing splits despite going to the line with the hand break on.

How To Play It: Brigantine WIN

Race 8 - 4:40PM THE INGHAM (1600 METRES)

4. Diamil continues to trend upwards this preparation. The Gong and the Festival Stakes may be the more recent lead ins to this year’s Ingham but have got the Five Diamonds pegged as the strongest. That fourth to Ellsberg, where the track record was broken, reads well for this with Uncle Bryn and Milford already franking the form. Diamil has been freshened up since then with five weeks between runs and he couldn’t have been more impressive in his tickover trial since then, coasting through the line at Canterbury. The five-year-old looks ready to explode with 54.5kg on his back and tackling his pet trip of the mile (9:4-2-0). He isn’t the type of horse that’ll bustle forward to use the low draw but even being allowed to find his feet he should settle down somewhere midfield. Gets his chance in a terribly open race.

Dangers: 6. Riodini has an extra 2.5kg after his win in The Gong, which broke a run of outs. Another dry track over the mile is right up his alley. We’ll leave it to Tim Clark to find a spot from the wide draw but he covered ground three weeks ago and it didn’t matter. Don’t love barrier 1 for 9. Sky Lab but he has been terrific in The Hunter and The Gong in his two runs back. In the latest of those at Kembla Grange he was nailed to the inside, the worst ground. The five-year-old is sneaky flying and finds Josh Parr now. Was desperate for 10. Skyman to draw a gate in this. He’s flown right under the radar and clocked the fastest closing splits in the Festival behind 16. Dajraan last start. This has been grand final day all campaign. 17. Brutality is airborne, 20. Wild Planet was brave in The Gong while 1. Huetor and 2. Sunshine Rising are the class.

How To Play It: Diamil EACH WAY

Race 9 - 5:20PM THANKS BOB & JACK INGHAM HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

1. Nugget should take care of this field, even with the 61kg after the claim of Zac Lloyd. The lightly-raced six-year-old was brilliant when winning at Kembla Grange last start and he’s favourite for the Ingham despite being second emergency. Hence why he is an odds on favourite staying in benchmark company. The icing on the cake is where he is likely to get to in the run. Can get him as close as third upon settling given the lack of on speed horses. Expecting him to jump on the back of Fun Fact before peeling out in the straight to justify his short price. Only has to repeat what he did three weeks ago to win just as comfortably and given he was only second up there after a 46 weeks break, it’s likely that he’ll improve again.

Dangers: 4. Cisco Bay continues to race well. He brings up the half century of starts on Saturday but he has never raced better and he continues to hold his form. His Festival Stakes fifth beaten just 2.25L by Dajraan reads well for this grade. You have to take 7. Jojo Was A Man on trust but he was only beaten 3.2L in that same race. It was an improvement on what he did first up. It’s still a long way off his best but he is 5:2-2-0 at Randwick. 10. Bullfinch didn’t get a lot of luck behind Nugget last start and should have finished second. 13. Irish Legend was outsprinted over 1400m first up in a slowly run race, despite settling handy. 5. Steely can bounce back after a fair run in the ATC Cup out to 2000m.

How To Play It: Nugget WIN

Race 10 - 5:55PM PFD HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

14. Banju was posted wide the trip last start at Rosehill when fourth to Mensa Missile. He was brave to box on to be beaten just 2.6 lengths at the finish. Want to trust that form reference as the winner did it at both ends and ran fast overall time. It’s also the race that provides the favourite here in Democracy Manifest. There was only 1.5L between them at the finish despite Banju only being second up and covering ground. First up he ran well behind Fender and Cavalier Charles. Banju maps beautifully third up particularly given the lack of speed on paper and he gets in with 53.5kg after the claim of Amy McLucas. Have got him grabbing the back of the likely leader Bergen in the run and that tactical advantage could see him pinch a winning break on Democracy Manifest to turn the tables.

Dangers: 2. Democracy Manifest is obviously hard to beat. He doesn’t help himself with his racing pattern but like the booking of Nash Rawiller. He’ll balance up and be allowed to savage the line in his customary style. Bergen could give some cheek from up front if he’s left alone. He was ripped out of his comfort zone first up behind all-the-way winner Spaceboy. It’s a much more favourable set up on Saturday and the good track suits. 13. Kanazawa isn’t blessed with much early speed but he does have a big finish. Hopefully Zac Lloyd can use the draw to be no worse than midfield. His first up run was better than it reads on paper. 12. Arnaqueur rates a mention.

How To Play It: Banju EACH WAY

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting

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