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Brad Gray's Tips For Royal Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 12:30PM DRINKWISE PLATE (1100 METRES)

3. Straight Charge was brave on debut. He had to work in the early stages to get outside of the leader. The pressure came out mid-race, granted, so he wasn’t riding a fast speed but to still find a kick was admirable. He fought but got out bobbed on the line by a swooper. He refused to lie down. Training duo Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have already trained six two-year-old winners this season and are five from 11 in non-black type races with their juveniles. Straight Charge was tipped out after the Breeders’ Plate. He has trialled twice since and looks to have improved again. He’s looked particularly sharp, running very fast time in winning his most recent Randwick heat. Like the wide draw allowing Tim Clark to slide across in his own time before assuming control. Well found in early betting but that looks justified.

Dangers: Godolphin’s debutant 4. Tarpaulin looks the wildcard. The son of Harry Angel has only had the one trial, and it was on Monday, so getting him to the races does appear a little rushed, but he was impressive hitting the line from last. He jumped on terms but was dragged back. Wouldn’t expect that to be the case from barrier 1 on Saturday. He’s a half brother to Aft Cabin. 7. Erno’s Cube made a big impression in the way she won the Max Lees Classic. She was given a lovely stalking ride but ran out a dominant winner. Has to stretch that brilliance to 1100m now but her strength through the line there suggests she’ll cope. 1. Pisces was only a narrow winner on debut but liked the way he kept chasing to knock off the odds on favourite.

How To Play It: Straight Charge WIN

Race 2 - 1:05PM KIA ORA PRAGUE HANDICAP (2400 METRES)

1. I’m A Dirty Rascal has plenty of weight but he is better than a BM78 level of stayer. The six-year-old has settled out the back in his first and second up runs, dictated to by wide draws and speed drawn underneath him. It’s a very different set up on Saturday from an inside gate. Suspect Tim Clark will be happy to get the back of likely leader Father’s Day who should take him everywhere he needs to go. Three weeks ago I’m A Dirty Rascal chased home Stockman in the Christmas Cup at Listed level. His past form in Melbourne was against some of the better stayers going around. Remember, he was 50 weeks on the sidelines prior to resuming for Waterhouse and Bott so should improve again now third up. His class sees him hard to beat, coming up against, with due respect, rivals coming through the midweeks.

Dangers: 2. Father’s Day comes here full of confidence having really turned a corner recently. Loses his association with Rachel King but Dylan Gibbons will be issued the same instructions, let him roll in front, keep him happy and he’ll keep grinding away at the finish. It’s been four weeks since he was an all the way winner at Warwick Farm with 60kg but he has had a tickover trial since. 3. Cruz Missile was left flatfooted when the sprint went on at Randwick last start but the way he picked himself up to still run through the line suggests he could be a sharp improver out to 2400m now. Suspect he is going better than the form guide suggests. 4. First Light broke a long run of outs on the back of a quieter ride last start but he was well held by Father’s Day the start prior.

How To Play It: I’m A Dirty Rascal WIN

Race 3 - 1:40PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

4. Sharp Shock has been narrowly beaten in Highway Handicap company at his past two starts. He should have no excuses now back out to mile in terms of going one better. The four-year-old son of Bull Point ticked off the 1600m box two starts ago at Newcastle when rattling home behind Rematch, missing in a photo finish. He then kept chasing behind Mosgold art Randwick a fortnight ago when coming to 1400m. Making his past two efforts even more meritorious is the fact that the leader has won both races. This doesn’t look to be a deep Highway on paper and there looks enough speed on paper for him to get his chance. Reece Jones knows the gelding inside-out and he sticks, unsurprisingly. He is a firm early favourite. Rightly so too.

Dangers: Scone-based trainer Lyle Chandler brings his lightly-raced gelding 5. Mazita to town for the first time. The timing looks right, coming here on the back of two wins. His Gosford win last start out to the mile was even better than his Muswellbrook win second up, giving the indication that he could step off that again now fourth up. Can ride the speed, so Tim Clark looks an astute booking. 1. Imatruestar is a place chance on what he has done most recently in Highway company. He wasn’t all that far off Sharp Shock two starts ago before holding that form when fourth at Randwick. 12. Mckeon comes through that same Golden Decade form reference. He may have been flattered settling outside of the leader in an on speed dominated race, however.

How To Play It: Sharp Shock WIN

Race 4 - 2:15PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

7. Ningaloo Star lines up for the 11th run of her preparation on Saturday but she has never raced better. All she has to do is hold her form to be in the finish again. In her past four starts, she has picked up a win and been beaten no further than 0.7 lengths. Two of those narrow defeats came in Midway company. One of those was two weeks ago when second to Terra Mater. There is no shame in that as the winner is flying this time back and looks destined to skip through the grades. Ningaloo Star sat outside of the leader there and kicked like she would hold on. It wasn’t to be but she held off third comfortably enough and this assignment is certainly no harder. She’s the early favourite in a typically competitive Midway but thought she was entitled to be shorter still.

Dangers: 13. Romeo’s Choice resumed a winner at Hawkesbury first up. His strike rate doesn’t inspire confidence but look at the depth of his form lines from the backend of last campaign. Beaten less than a length by Bunker Hut and a fourth to Chorlton Lane. He is just going to need a clever ride from Tommy Berry to navigate the wide draw. 1. Conrad was perhaps better than it appears first up. He was made to look plain by the winner who went straight past him in the straight. Back in grade and fitter for that. Has fired second up in the past. 6. Dodi wasn’t far away from Ningaloo Star at Randwick last start. He’ll be thereabouts again on what he has done in four runs for Mick Attard. 12. Mr Rock It rates a mention.

How To Play It: Ningaloo Star WIN

Race 5 - 2:50PM DOYLE'S BREEDING AND RACING HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

The penny started to drop for 12. Matusalem last campaign. Not sure what happened at Kembla Grange between his two wins but his most recent victory at the midweeks stamped him as a three-year-old with still more to come. He was given a perfect ride but he was dominant at the finish, defying a market drift, running out a strong 1800m. That race has produced four subsequent winners. He’ll have some residual fitness tackling this eight weeks between runs but like the intent in running over the mile despite the freshen. The Chris Waller-trained colt has trialled since to bridge the gap. He steps back into Saturday company for the first time since teasing talent as a two-year-old but this is a very winnable race, lacking depth.

Dangers: 10. Zenmaster has a little knockout claim. The gelding trained by Craig Carmody found 1400m a touch too sharp first up at Warwick Farm but liked the way he ran through the line. He improved sharply out to 1550m last campaign to break his maiden, beating Futtaim and Kapakiri. That was on the back of a luckless 12th in a deep race at Kembla Grange behind King Colorado. There was little between 2. Clear Choice and 4. Buillt at Canterbury back in late November. Clear Choice has since placed in the Nowra Cup while Buillt has been freshened. The timing is right to find out where 9. Mistress fits in at this level.

How To Play It: Matusalem WIN

Race 6 - 3:25PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

Don’t want to drop off 1. Miss Hellfire. Thought the four-year-old was terrific first up behind Eagle Nest, clocking the fastest closing splits of the entire meeting. That saw her well backed at Warwick Farm second up but she never got cover and the winner Luvior got those chasing out of their comfort zone from the outset. There was simply no catching the leader. Back to her own sex now third up looks perfect. She is up at the top of the weights but that’s a nod to her class. The daughter of Hellbent brings a strong SP profile into this and there looks to be enough speed either side for Tyler Schiller to be positive early before looking for cover. Convinced that another win is just around the corner.

Dangers: 8. Valiancy will be hoping the track comes up soft on Saturday as she loves getting her toe into the ground. Swapping a good track for a soft track saw her improve sharply second up at Rosehill, boxing on to run third behind Legio Ten in what should prove a strong form reference for this. Dollar Magic has raced well since from that race. It was a blanket finish with 10. Tsarina Sophia on her heels but hard to knock a mare in such good form. 2. Principessa and 6. Speak Up are perhaps more prospects for second and third up but look for them both late.

How To Play It: Miss Hellfire WIN

Race 7 - 4:00PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

2. Meritable got under our guards first up at Rosehill. He got out to triple figure odds, having his first start for Mark Minervini, but he didn’t run like that. Slicing and dicing his way through the field late he picked off Malkovich and looked the winner only for Dragonstone to produce a blistering finish to beat them all. Perhaps we were naïve to give this five-year-old no respect given he started odds on against Freedom Rally at Eagle Farm just back in June. When trained in New Zealand he placed in Group One company out to the mile and was also Group Two placed over 1400m. The trade off now is he’s nowhere near the price he was sent around three weeks ago. Still happy to be in his corner.

Dangers: 7. Sneaky Paige also comes through the Starlight Stakes and she boasts a much more palatable SP profile having jumped a well backed $6.50 chance. She too travelled like the winner but looked to peak on her run. Fitter second up. The draw isn’t kind for 8. Va Via first up but liked what she did in Melbourne last campaign and she caught the eye in a recent Hawkesbury trial. More was expected from 5. With Your Blessing in the Razor Sharp a fortnight ago given he jumped favourite. Perhaps he was flattered by the circumstances at Kembla Grange prior to that, leading on a wet track. 10. Waverider Buoy draws awkwardly too but expect her to be attacking the line late too.

How To Play It: Meritable WIN

Race 8 - 4:40PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

10. Cavalier Charles hit the front in the Community Chest at Canberra last start but was softened up by the leader, which saw the Matt Dale-trained galloper picked off late by the closers. It was a better run than the beaten margin suggests. Like his form prior to that through the Barn Dance and Kosciuszko, behind Front Page and Opal Ridge. Cavalier Charles ran fourth there. The lightly-raced seven-year-old looks perfectly set up for this, dropping to 53kg and four weeks between runs. His most recent three runs off month freshens have been amongst the best of his career. He is more dynamic ridden with cover but the barrier mightn’t give Dylan Gibbons that luxury. A soft gate would have sealed the deal. That’s the only knock. Where he gets to in the run.

Dangers: 4. Waihaha Falls has drawn even wider. He tends to get back regardless though. Would have liked to have seen a touch more speed on paper for him, and more rain around. Comes off an eye catching third in the Razor Sharp two weeks ago. Looks ready to win. 2. Sinawann comes through the Razor Sharp too, producing his best run in some time. Have got a little query over that form line given two lengths separated first to eighth. 6. Conscript was flat first up. He is better than that. Has been backed to the trials since and went well.

How To Play It: Cavalier Charles WIN

Race 9 - 5:20PM VALE MR ALAN 'JOCK' GOLLOGLY (1800 METRES)

4. Aristonous needs to win this if he is to put his hand up as a progressive horse. The Annabel Neasham stable hold the import in high regard, and rightly so given what he did in his first Australian preparation. He hit the ground running, winning twice, before it went a little pear shaped. Respect how well found he was in the market in both of those defeat though. The five-year-old resumed at Randwick over the mile two weeks ago, working home strongly into third and a race where the first two turning for home ran the quinella. He wasn’t well suited by the shape of the race. It does lay a perfect platform for his preparation though. Second up out to 1800m looks perfect now. Shouldn’t have any excuses.

Dangers: The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained pair 6. Too Much Caviar and 5. So United both have claims. Mainly on the basis of where they’ll be in the run, making their own luck. That looks advantageous given how evenly matched this field is on paper. Like the intent of tackling the mile first up with Too Much Caviar, with three trials under his belt. So United was boxing on okay at Canterbury first up. This trip is more his go and he’ll improve with the run under his belt. 11. Bowery Breeze becomes a player if the rain stays around. She has a big win to her name over this track and trip, albeit against the mares. Comes into this a last start winner. 3. Rogue Bear gets the blinkers first time and continues to race well.

How To Play It: Aristonous WIN

Race 10 - 5:55PM TAB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

10. Ceolwulf is untapped. The three-year-old went from winning a midweek maiden to running second in the G3 Ming Dynasty at just his third career start. He split Encap and Tom Kitten there. The former was subsequently touched off in the Golden Rose while Tom Kitten three starts later blitzed his rivals in the Spring Champion. Don’t really know where Ceolwulf fits in but trainer Joe Pride holds the son of Tavistock on high regard. Has had just the one trial ahead of his return, where Tyler Schiller for a feel for the colt, and he wasn’t asked to do much in the heat. He’s sure to improve with the run but he looks a talented horse. Curious placement from the stable to kick off here. Would like to see a late market push.

Dangers: His stablemate 6. Testator Silens has more runs on the board and should be able to build off an encouraging return at Warwick Farm two weeks ago. That was his first run for Pride. Has always been a talented horse. 3. Robusto kept closing last start in Melbourne. Five weeks between runs and coming back in trip doesn’t look ideal but he’ll be strong late. Maybe next time out to the mile. 2. Danaustar will give a sight while 11. Master Showman looks ready to win.

How To Play It: Ceolwulf WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting

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