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Brad Gray's Tips For Royal Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 12:30PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

2. Chief Conductor is a slippery customer when he is on song. The lightly-raced five-year-old resumed at Warwick Farm and stuck on well at the finish despite being dictated to by the horse on his inside. The quinella cleared out from the rest of the field but had the drop on the leaders and finished too well. There was over a length back to fourth. Anna Roper rode there and she keeps the ride on Saturday, with her 3kg claim offsetting Chief Conductor’s 59kg. The regally bred speedster, by I Am Invincible out of Snitzerland, should be able to clear 8. Annulus to find the fence and the front. That’s the position he loves. He put four lengths on Selous in one of his wins last campaign. Entitled to be a well found favourite given the set up.

Dangers: 5. Vindication has been freshened up since failing at Canterbury where he had the excuse of being posted deep throughout. Has had a Hawkesbury tickover trial since then. A dry track and 1100m is a scenario that should see him bounce back to his best form. He split Mogo Magic and Smashing Eagle only back in July over this track and trip. 9. Eye Pea Oh resumed with an eye catching third at Warwick Farm first up to suggest she has returned as well as ever.

How To Play It: Chief Conductor WIN

Race 2 - 1:05PM CATANACH'S JEWELLERS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

1. Atmosphere must be taken on trust. His first up run was a shocker. Too bad to be true. Perhaps the tempo of the race brought him undone fresh. His record tells you that he improves with a run under his belt. Whatever reason for his failure, James Cummings freshened up the four-year-old with six weeks between runs. He wasn’t asked to do much in a trial since then, coasting to the line at Hawkesbury. Would be more bullish if we had a soft track on Saturday, but that’s not going to eventuate. However, look at the depth of his form lines last campaign. Placings alongside the likes of Hawaii Five Oh, Razeta and Kovalica. You just have to roll the dice that he can bounce back from his poor first up showing but there looks to be enough in the early price to take that leap of faith.

Dangers: His stablemate 2. Capo Strada was also disappointing first up but had the excuse of blundering at the start. That saw him get well back in the run and make no impression late. The form through that race has been franked since in Saturday company. 4. Pioneer River maps to get the run of the race from barrier 1, holding a spot in behind the leaders. Like the way he kept finding the line at Rosehill last start when 1200m back to 1100m. The set up suits better here and he continues to knock on the door in similar races. 5. Sebonack lost touch over 1100m in a BM100 at Caulfield last start but rushed home late to clock the fastest closing splits across the meeting. Has to tick off the 1200m box.

How To Play It: Atmosphere WIN

Race 3 - 1:40PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

10. Bandi’s Boy was 55 weeks between runs at Rosehill first up. He was excellent in defeat, despite running sixth. He was run off his feet over 1100m but hit the line powerfully. His closing splits were among the fastest across the entire meeting. His last 600m was 32.57s. He couldn’t go any faster than that. He’s now three weeks between runs, out to 1200m second up and drops back to class 3 company from a BM78. Doull ran third there and subsequently beat Spacewalk in a Group Two sprint in Melbourne. Bandi’s Boy raced in Highway Handicap company last campaign but travelled deep throughout, sticking on to run third behind Pokerjack and Participator. Draws well and being so lightly-raced, the only prior second up run he had he beat Zougotcha as a two-year-old.

Dangers: 11. Florino is going to attract plenty of interest having won three of her first four starts. Her Newcastle win last campaign where she beat Memoria and Coriolis reads exceptionally well for this. Has looked sharp in two trials ahead of her return and maps to get the run of the race, Aaron Bullock comes to town to ride her. 2. The Dramatist trialled in the same heat as Florino and worked home strongly. He won a Highway out to 1500m last campaign but has proven just as effective over sprint trips in the past. 5. Super Extreme looks perfectly set up for this third up out to 1200m. He had no luck first up behind Derry Grove before finding one too sharp staying at 1000m second up.

How To Play It: Bandi’s Boy WIN

Race 4 - 2:15PM EGROUP PROTECTIVE SERVICES HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

8. Sequestered was suited by a fast tempo up front set by Body Bob at Randwick last start but there was a lot to like about the way she quickened to put her rivals away. The overall time was fast too. The four-year-old rises 3kg off that but this isn’t harder depth-wise. Out to the mile looks to suit now third up. The Godolphin mare was confidently backed at Rosehill first up in midweek company and she delivered there too, beating subsequent winner Fall For Cindy. Being a daughter of Pierro, she was tested over 2000m in the Adrian Knox last campaign, jumping an even money favourite, but the heavy track brought about her undoing. Want to stick with her through the grades, especially with a run of dry tracks.

Dangers: 9. Cinque Torri was waiting around for nobody at Warwick Farm last start. He presented a very fit horse back from a narrow defeat over 1800m in the Bathurst Cup, and was ridden accordingly by Josh Parr. Straight to the front and the result was never in doubt. Parr sticks here and could adopt similar tactics. There was little between Cinque Torri and his stablemate 7. Hollywood Hero in the Bathurst Cup where the latter jumped a well backed favourite. Since then Hollywood Hero has won the Coonamble Cup, coming from the tail of the field. 10. Super Chilled was poking home late behind Sequestered first up. She’ll improve off that second up out to the mile from the better draw.

How To Play It: Sequestered WIN

Race 5 - 2:50PM TAB BRIAN CROWLEY STAKES (1200 METRES)

The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained speedster 6. Keenan is on the 10 day turnaround having won his maiden at the midweeks. It was a showing of sustained speed on the Kensington track. The son of Capitalist was sent around $1.55 and may have been flattered by an on speed pattern but it was the win of a colt capable of taking the next step. It’s a leap now into a Listed race but he sets up well fourth up back from 1300m and he should find the front. That’s arguably the best profile of any horse coming into this race. Would have liked to have seen a touch more from Dark Halo in the Gothic Stakes in Melbourne to frank his Wyong debut but Keenan is still sure to run well from in front, even if he doesn’t get it all his own way.

Dangers: It’s all about the map for filly 10. Mumbai Muse. She might be a maiden but is yet to race out of Group company in her five career start. Has been freshened up since disappointing in the Tea Rose Stakes, but her trial win since suggests she’s stayed sharp. Looks to get the run of the race. 3. Armed Forces will settle out the back but the form though his two Melbourne runs has been franked since with Brave Mead winning at Caulfield. 2. General Salute also freshens up from a disappointing run over 1400m, his in the Golden Rose. In his run prior, over 1200m, he was beaten less than a length in a blanket finish behind Cylinder. Has the right sprinting form lines to win this.

How To Play It: Keenan WIN

Race 6 - 3:25PM TOYOTA FORKLIFTS CRAVEN PLATE (1800 METRES)

2. Numerian was ridden conservatively first up from the wide gate in the Hill Stakes. He finished ninth behind Montefilia but was only 3.5L away at the finish in what turned into a sprint home. That’s not the right set up for this eight-year-old. He tends to be more effective riding the speed. Second up he draws barrier 1 and finds Adam Hyeronimus. The lead is there for the taking if he shows early intent from the outset. There doesn’t look to be a lot of pressure on paper and there doesn’t look to be a lot between the top dozen in betting. All their form ties in. It could come down to run of the race and at least we know Numerian will give himself every chance. Second up last campaign he ran second to Cascadian in the Australia Cup having led.

Dangers: Forget 5. Zeyrek’s run in the King Charles. He was posted deep throughout and 1900m back to the mile fourth up. The knock is where he’ll be in the run having drawn wide again but his runs prior have him right in the mix here. 9. Fireburn would love a wetter track, the dry spring isn’t suiting this mare. 3. No Compromise was the eye catcher in the Hill Stakes but was sent around $61 and suspecting that he could flatten out now third up back slightly in trip. Might be looking for further.

How To Play It: Numerian WIN

Race 7 - 4:00PM MOËT & CHANDON SPRING CHAMPION STAKES (2000 METRES)

2. Tom Kitten won first up in the Up And Coming giving Encap 5kg. That flagged that he had returned in great order. Unfortunately, it’s all gone pear shaped in his three subsequent runs, through no fault of his own. The wide gate beat him in the Ming Dynasty before he was flushed wide a long way from home in the Dulcify out to the mile. Yet he still kept finding the line. Being shuffled back in the run and getting into a bumping duel when angling for galloping room then brought about his undoing in the Gloaming Stakes. The one constant in his defeats is the sectionals home he continues to run. Adam Hyeronimus won’t be giving up barrier 1 out to 2000m now. Expecting him to settle much closer and from there he gets the chance to atone on grand final day.

Dangers: With even luck this time, Tom Kitten should account for his rivals in the Gloaming. That leaves the lone filly 12. Tutta La Vita as the wildcard. The way she flattened out in the Flight Stakes suggested that he is looking for 2000m now. Fillies have won three of the past seven runnings of this race, and provided a further two placings in the past two years. 1. Raf Attack made the running in the Gloaming and just kept on griding away at the finish. He profiles to relish 2000m. The wide draw suits, allowing Regan Bayliss time to roll across in his own time. 5. Glad You Think So was sent around an outsider in the Gloaming yet was beaten less than a length. His last 50m suggests he’ll relish 2000m too. He maps to get the run of the race too.

How To Play It: Tom Kitten WIN

Race 8 - 4:45PM THE INVITATION (1400 METRES)

2. Espiona was beaten less than three lengths in the TAB Everest. That’s by far the strongest form reference any of these mares offer. Prior to that she smashed the clock when second to Sunshine In Paris in the Sheraco Stakes before backing that up with a demolition of her rivals in the Golden Pendant out to 1400m. Her form warranted a shot at the $20 million carrot two weeks ago but the gamble was always going to be whether she’d be able to match it with the best sprinters in the country over 1200m. The short answer is no but she more than held her own. The way she worked through the line sets her up well for 1400m again now fourth up. Will just need Kerrin McEvoy to angle her into the clear at the right time.

Dangers: The market looks to have the key chances well pegged. 7. Magic Time was brilliant when winning the Nivison first up. She was kidding to those. Sat handy but loved the way she quickened from in front. She’s versatile but expecting another positive ride here. 6. Roots tends to fire early in her campaigns and she looks well set up herself second up here. Got a long way back in the Alan Brown first up before rattling home into fifth behind Cepheus. Can settle closer in this from another low draw. The risk with 5. Opal Ridge is that she flattens off second up after such a tough first up run in the Kosciuszko which was her grand final. Very talented mare, however.

How To Play It: Espiona WIN

Race 9 - 5:30PM CINCOTTA CHEMIST CALLANDER-PRESNELL (1600 METRES)

11. Arctic Glamour has been brilliant in winning both starts this time back. Her late strength has been the key takeaway which should see her improve again third up out to the mile. That’s a scary thought for her rivals. The filly ripped clear to break her maiden in emphatic fashion before justifying being sent around as an odds on favourite in the Reginald Allen last start. She takes a few strides to get herself organised but once she hits top gear, she asserts her dominance. The clock backs up what we’ve seen to the eye too. Barrier 1 could pose a problem for Kerrin McEvoy but she does have enough speed to settle midfield. From there she just needs clear running. Looking to make it three on the bounce and although she takes on the boys again, there’s nothing here she shouldn’t take care of.

Dangers: 1. Namesake shouldn’t really be doing what he is over the sprint trips. He is a full brother to Bank Maur, a winner out to 2000m. It’s not the most conventional set up for this colt jumping from 1100m, 1200m and now third up out to the mile but he comes through strong sprint races. There was little between Namesake and 3. Heman when the pair met in Queensland as two-year-olds. Heman had no luck in the Tapp-Craig three weeks ago and probably should have been fighting out the finish with Makarena. Gives the impression he too will relish the mile. Chris Waller pulled the pin on a Spring Champion tilt with 7. Snowman, favouring a drop back to 1600m. Maps well and wasn’t beaten far in the Gloaming. 8. Ostraka is a talent but comes off a minor setback.

How To Play It: Arctic Glamour WIN

Race 10 - 6:10PM NATIONAL JOCKEYS TRUST HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

4. Gringotts produced the best run of his campaign last start at Rosehill. The race didn’t work out for him at all. He found a three wide running line only for that to disappear which left him exposed and working a long way from home. The two that fought out the finish had the luxury of ducking up the inside. Gringotts came down the middle of the track. It was the run of the race. His splits home were sharp too. He couldn’t have done much more. Thought he was only fair in his two runs prior, at least compared to what he showed last campaign as a three-year-old. No excuses now fourth up in a very winnable race drawn to jump straight onto the back of the leaders. Everything looks to have fallen into place. The only negative is that the market agrees with that assessment.

Dangers: 10. Fall For Cindy went toe-to-toe with Sequestered first up, making up a stack of ground from the back of the field. That saw her jump an odds on favourite in a near identical race two weeks later. She justified the price and always travelled like the winner. Drops 4kg up in grade. Will spot Gringotts a start from the barrier but be ready to pounce late. 2. Felix Majestic was a dominant winner of a Midway last start. Has to transfer his Rosehill form to Randwick but he should find the same spot upon settling outside of the lead. That leader is likely to be 5. Portray. Had to work hard early to cross into a prominent spot last start. That told at the finish. Doesn’t have that same concern here.

How To Play It: Gringotts WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting

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