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By Brad Gray

The Hawkes-trained debutant 2. Agenda Setter hasn’t done anything wrong in his two trials and at the early price, leaning his way over the odds on favourite The Three Hundred. The son of I Am Invincible, out of Group One winning mare Secret Agenda, ran fast time when second in his most recent Rosehill trial. The quickest of the five 900m heats. He was asked to find the line but there was a response late. That was after showing plenty of natural speed to lead all of the way to win his first trial. The barrier gives Tommy Berry, who rode in both trials, a couple of options. Sit outside of the leader or take cover. Suspect he’ll just drop in behind the leaders. The pressure should be on throughout over 1000m, with the two-year-olds running on adrenaline.

Dangers: 8. The Three Hundred will bounce out to find the fence and the front from barrier 1. That is a big advantage, being guided by the rail, for an unraced youngster. The Waterhouse and Bott stable are flying too. The Three Hundred’s stablemate 6. Shangri La Express only had one trial over 740m at Randwick but the time was sharp enough and liked the big margin back to third. Showed natural speed throughout too. The barrier doesn’t make it as straightforward for him though. Godolphin’s 3. Blue Illusion is hard to assess. He drifted late but still jumped a short price at Flemington first up. He subsequently was found to have pulled up slow to recover, which explains his disappointing performance. Could bounce back without surprising.

How To Play It: Agenda Setter WIN

2. Amarantz is already a Highway Handicap winner over this track and trip. That was back in February where she came with a rush to surge past her rivals down the middle of the track. The five-year-old mare did something similar at Rosehill first up behind Chase My Crown, rattling home into second. That was despite being big odds and seven weeks between runs. The preparation makes sense now though with Goulburn-based trainer Danielle Seib presumably eyeing off this race all along. Prior to last start, Amarantz stuck on well behind one of the most impressive Highway winners we’ve seen recently in Holstein. With due respect to her rivals on Saturday, there doesn’t look to be any gallopers here in his class. Hence why she finds herself at the top of betting. That looks justified.

Dangers: 4. Whodat has been met with support in early betting, with the market so respectful of Matt Dunn trained horses in Highways now. Deservedly do. The ‘Highway King’ is back. The gelding has been well held in his past two but Dunn knows exactly the right profile of horse to bring down and this isn’t a deep race. 7. Believe So went straight to the front at Murwillumbah and ran his rivals into the ground. He jumped a $101 chance in a Highway first up but got a long way back. Could lead this too. 15. Fil has knockout claims too.

How To Play It: Amarantz WIN

10. Epicus should have been fighting out the finish first up at Warwick Farm. The four-year-old has proved to be an astute pick up for Kristen Buchanan, having won three of his six starts for the stable. He charged through the grades last campaign, culminating with a dominant midweek win at Canterbury. That was out to 1550m. The knock first up was whether he would find the sprint trip too sharp but he disproved that. The four-year-old got tangled up in traffic in the straight, having to switch off heels to find clear galloping room. The damage had already been done at that point. He flashed home into fifth. That was a deep BM72. This is no harder. He looks well set up off that out to 1400m second, drawn in barrier 1, which he can use as he has tactical speed.

Dangers: 5. Peace Officer sprinted home in a slick last 400m split when fourth at Rosehill behind Felix Majestic. The wide barrier proved costly. He draws closer here and can atone in an identical race. Loses Nash Rawiller, who has been with him in all three runs this time back, but finds Aaron Bullock. 15. Satness led and gave a sight two weeks ago, holding down second. Expect a similar run here from on top of the speed. 2. Oakfield Waratah profiles as a sharp improver but the early market cottoned onto that too.

How To Play It: Epicus WIN

6. Marquess is a stayer going places. The lightly-raced five-year-old just keeps stepping up to the mark this time back, having resumed after a 44 week spell. His last start win, four weeks ago now, was the best of his career. He was afforded every possible chance in the run but gapped his rivals late. Pierossa has since franked that form line by beating 1. Mission Phoenix since. That ties everything together quite neatly. Marquess has gate speed and should get a cart across from Mission Phoenix who is likely to be ridden with intent to take up the running. Marquess has been back to the trials since last start and the son of Tavistock was keen, sharp and went to the line full of running. It’s a formula James Cummings uses with great success, the tickover trial.

Dangers: Joe Pride’s galloper 1. Mission Phoenix gets a 4kg swing on 8. Pierossa from Rosehill last start and if he didn’t roll off the fence in the straight, he probably holds on. He presented the winner with a dream split. Mission Phoenix doesn’t have a change of gears. He’s hard fit, let him roll. 4. Stroke Of Luck was poking home well first up over the mile finishing alongside a subsequent winner in Renaissance Woman. He improves off that out to 2000m and finds a suitable race. Draws well. Pierossa has form all around the right horses for this but looks to have a task in turning the tables on Marquess. Draws an inside gate again, which helps though.

How To Play It: Marquess WIN

12. Commemorative is completely untapped. We’ll get more of a guide as to where she fits in after Saturday but the way she won at Canterbury on debut earmarked her as a three-year-old filly that should skip through the grades. She put near five lengths on her rivals despite being green throughout. Now, the overall time was comparable to the other three 1100m races on the card and the subsequent form through the race hasn’t stood up. However, seeing is believing sometimes. The other talking point about this daughter of I Am Invincible is her enormous frame. She’s a monster. With that in mind, barrier 12 could turn out to be a blessing. You wouldn’t want her cluttered up. Carries just 52kg. This race is no gimme, however, and almost a black type mares race.

Dangers: 5. Overriding maps to get the run of the race, which could be decisive in the finish. Has trialled up nicely ahead of her return and won three from four last campaign. 3. Kazou is also lightly raced, with a great record. She’ll bounce out, putting herself in the first couple. Then there’s 7. Junqueira, and 2. Rainbiel. Can’t include them all! Good race.

How To Play It: Commemorative WIN

7. Smashing Eagle is six weeks between runs having charged home into second behind Red Card. Airman ran third. That was in BM88 company. Forget what Red Card has done since. She hasn’t been able to replicate that in two runs thereafter. Here he is in BM78 company once more. The five-year-old is airborne and keeps laying down the fastest closing splits of the meeting. That’s been one constant throughout the campaign. With his racing style, that doesn’t always guarantee victory. It’s never an easy watch, the way he is allowed to balance up over 1100m before flying late. However, there is enough in the early price to take that gamble. He is running sectionals superior to that of a horse at this level. He’d have been kept up to the mark since last running.

Dangers: 1. Dashing Legend was at her most dynamic on soft tracks last campaign. Her class sees her warrant a lot of respect in this grade regardless of the track conditions though. Her Fireball win over this same track and trip was explosive. Looked sharp winning a recent Warwick Farm trial ahead of her first run for Joe Pride. 8. Contemporary has trialled up well and has been around the mark in similar races to this before.

How To Play It: Smashing Eagle WIN

11. Unspoken’s winning margin flattered his rivals last start. The leaders walked in front. It turned into a sprint home and the import did a big job make it two from two this time back. His closing splits were slick. This looks a nice progression for the five-year-old now third up, tackling better company. That sees him in with just 52kg. Unspoken teased talent in his first Australian preparation but as we so often see with the imports, they improve after a campaign under their belt. He looks well adjusted now. He is also tractable enough now to take advantage of good draws. That should see him camp midfield in this. From there it’s just a matter of angling into the clear and letting his turn of foot take care of the rest.

Dangers: 14. Political Debate was never a factor in the Epsom. On class and given how the race was run. Much better placed here. 12. Knight’s Choice will improve sharply on what he did first up over an unsuitable 1200m trip behind Airman. He was doing his best work late and looks well set up out to the mile now from the low gate.

How To Play It: Unspoken WIN

It’s been 84 weeks since 1. Converge last won a race. That’s outrageous for a horse of his talent. That latest victory? The Randwick Guineas where he beat Anamoe. The five-year-old ran out of condition first up when fourth in the Bill Ritchie behind Rediener. That saw him jump in the market for the G1 Epsom second up. He was chopped out for a run in the straight and it was game over. The lack of tempo in the race means that it would’ve been unlikely that he’d have been fighting out the finish but he looked to have plenty to offer. The last time Converge raced over the Rosehill 1500m was last spring when a close up third in the G1 George Ryder Stakes behind Anamoe and Fangirl. In his 13 starts since last winning, 10 have been in Group Ones. And that’s not accounting for a Golden Eagle.

Dangers: 2. Democracy Manifest is starting to climb in the ratings now. That’s on the back of a dominant Cameron Handicap win. He then ran a luckless fifth in the G1 Epsom. Isn’t as well weighted here, and the draw isn’t as soft, but he’s going so well this time back. On the subject of luck, it was all bad for 5. Cotehele last start too. He should have beaten Cepheus in the Alan Brown. Riding him quietly seems to be working a treat as he’s unleased a devastating turn of foot when ridden that way. 11. Wategos will spear forward and make his own luck. Finds himself in career best form. He was 1550m back to 1200m last start and five weeks between runs yet there he still was fighting out the finish.

How To Play It: Converge WIN

Two of 2. Lion’s Roar’s best performances have come over the Randwick mile. His win over Mo’unga in the Randwick Guineas and his narrow second in the Ingham last year. His last win was in the Randwick Guineas, in fact. That was 136 weeks ago now. That’s concerning but we’re getting double figure odds to see if he can break that drought. The six-year-old looks well paired with Jason Collett too. Lion’s Roar will need all of Collett’s ingenuity to get him home from the wide gate. Love the way he flattened out over 1500m first up in the Shannon Stakes before he was crowded in the straight in the Alan Brown last start. The drop back to 1400m was against there too. Another dry track suits.

Dangers: Zac Lloyd will be hoping to park up closer on 1. Flying Crazy but that comes down to the gelding’s willingness to jump on terms. He can be slow out. That’s proved costly in the past. He looks to have returned particularly well though, and scooted home up the fence to get into third in the Alan Brown last start. Just has to tick off the box of getting a strong mile. The last time 7. Spangler raced at Randwick he torched his rivals in the Provincial Midway Championships Final. That was on a heavy track but he’s also effective on firmer ground. Five weeks since he ran well in the Cameron. 4. Steely is a last start winner, coming from well back at Eagle Farm. He was a touch too good for those.

How To Play It: Lion’s Roar EACH WAY

This looks the most suitable race 5. Extremely Lucky has contested since being transferred to Chris Waller. He’s had three runs in Sydney and despite finishing no closer than fifth, all of his runs have had merit. First up on a soft track he met the likes of Buenos Noches. He was then tasked with making ground on Red Card at Rosehill over 1100m. His performance there was just about on par with Smashing Eagle and Airman. The five-year-old then dropped back to 1000m third up at Warwick Farm. The winner Spacewalk dropped him at the top of the straight before Extremely Lucky was coming again through the line. The sectionals home in that race were lightning fast. The way he raced there suggests that back out to 1200m suits now.

Dangers: Forget 3. Much Much Better’s last start run. He found himself outside of the leader in a race set up for the backmarkers. He was also six weeks between runs. His three runs prior to that were all terrific. His fate will be dictated by tempo again with the likes of 13. Tristate, who is a little risk running out a strong 1200m, drawing wide but if he pinches a breather at any point, he’s a tough horse to get past. 16. Ka Bling is up in grade but he sets up well to cope with that. Just missed at the midweeks last start. Maps to get a soft run throughout. 9. Dynamic Impact and 7. Pizzaro matched motors through that same Airman race as Much Much Better and there was little between the pair at the finish.

How To Play It: Extremely Lucky WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting