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Brad Gray's Tips For Royal Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 11:45AM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

1. Strait Acer only scrambled home in Midway company three weeks ago but he was always in control. It was a confident ride from Jason Collett to give the four-year-old plenty of room in the straight, taking bad luck out of the equation. Strait Acer may have floated a touch once he hit the front but he is a gelding still learning his craft. That was only the eighth start of his career. The drop back to 1400m looks to suit and he draws to find a similar trailing spot to last start on Saturday. He was terrific the start prior in an unsuitably run race while first up her nailed Kangaroo Court right on the line, who beat stablemate Howgoodareyou at his subsequent start. He goes up 2kg from winning last time out but it shouldn’t bother him being a strong horse.

Dangers: 3. Backrower is absolutely worth another chance. It all comes down to price though. He was friendless in betting first up, in Midway company over 1200m. After being posted three deep throughout he was entitled to knock up. Draws better here and beat Wollombi last preparation out to 1400m. 13. Stars And Bars has been up since April but he has never raced better. Should have finished closer to Marquess last start at Warwick Farm and maps to get the run of the race. He is a better hope than his odds suggest. 11. Eyeque is a knockout chance.

How To Play It: Strait Acer WIN

Race 2 - 12:20PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

2. Wizard Of Oz ripped along out in front at Rosehill three weeks ago which saw him picked off late by Overlord, who had stalked him into the straight. It was a brave run from Wizard Of Oz to hold down second. Meldoy Again ran third and has since won a Highway herself to frank the form. That run should top off this five-year-old perfectly third up. Drops slightly back in trip from 1300m to 1200m and he might be looking for 1400m. That’s the only possible knock regarding the set up on Saturday. Jason Collett sticks having ridden the son of Exceed And Excel first and second up. First up Wizard Of Oz had no luck in Highway company and should have been right in the finish. Has his hoof on the till. Should be a matter of when, not if, regarding him winning a Highway Handicap.

Dangers: The market has caught up to 14. Centre Bounce now after rattling home into second behind her stablemate Derry Grove two weeks ago. She was beaten over four lengths but came from last. There is no $17 available now. Matt Dunn. Highways. Enough said at the moment. 15. Rebel Dreamer found one too sharp over 1000m at Muswellbrook first up but did run third in Highway company last campaign as a $3.40 chance. She too looks big odds. 4. Sungblue had no luck first up. Forgive him that. Has been found in early betting though. 2. Smokeshow can finish fast.

How To Play It: Wizard Of Oz WIN

Race 3 - 12:55PM LOCKTON HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

4. Waverider Buoy can find a tight finish. The four-year-old mare has run second in four of her five starts this time back and two weeks ago at Caulfield was the biggest margin. It was 0.75L. She also has a win in amongst those placings and it was by a nostril. She had every possible chance in Melbourne last start but simply found the winner too good, Viviane who led all of the way. Waverider Buoy kept finding the line and that was a BM84 where she started a $3.40 chance. She brings a strong SP profile into this race and only has to hold her form to be fighting out the finish again. Her conviction may be her winning strike rate to this point in her career but its hard to be critical or question her desire given the tiny margins. James McDonald jumps back on.

Dangers: 11. Dancing Alone is the talking point given that she is completely untapped. She made it four from four at Kembla Grange last start after being sent around a $1.22 chance. It wasn’t as comfortable as punters may have liked but the win was better than meets the eye, running sharp time home. 7. Mabel is a rocket first up (4:2-2-0) and her best form fits in well here, despite the market completely overlooking her. Just missed to Dalaalaat in Midway company over this track and trip last preparation. The challenge for 10. Tintookie is replicating last start back to 1100m and presumably on a firmer track. We’ll see what Saturday’s rating throws up, however. 6. Ojai is a classy mare but the map looks problematic first up.

How To Play It: Waverider Buoy WIN

Race 4 - 1:30PM IKON SERVICES HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

Want to give 6. Perfect Thought the chance to bounce back second up. He gets a pass mark for his first up sixth behind Pericles but he had no excuses, beaten three lengths. You have to respect how firm he was in the market late. He was heavily backed. Last preparation he improved sharply with a run under his belt. The heavy track may have been to blame first up last campaign but he built off that to run second to Kovalica out to the mile. The son of So You Think has run twice over 1600m and they’ve been the best two runs of his short career so far. The other performance was winning the Carbine Club at Flemington, blowing his rivals away. The inside gate should see him hold a spot, settling well in front of the flying Tazaral.

Dangers: 12. Tazaral is five weeks between runs but he has come back in fine form, producing fast closing splits to get home over the top of his rivals. Saturday’s task isn’t made easy by the barrier. 4. Mission Phoenix hasn’t been suited over 1400m in his two runs back. He backs up having been outsprinted last Saturday. Out to the mile, third up and the promise of a rolling tempo should see him run well. 9. Mach Schnell gets the blinkers again and comes back in journey.

How To Play It: Perfect Thought WIN

Race 5 - 2:05PM SYDNEY CITY LEXUS CTC CUP (2400 METRES)

10. Verona had her first try at 2400m last start and to state that she jumped out of ground feels like an understatement. The five-year-old mare made a mess of her six rivals despite being sent around as one of the outsiders in the field. She did it with 59kg on her back, coming from last in the run and with her ears pricked. Her challenge on Saturday lies in repeating that given that it by far bettered anything she had done prior. The former Kiwi jumps a few grades from a BM78 into Listed company but drops 5kg because of that. Going into last start it was easy to get the impression that she preferred wet ground. Turns out it doesn’t matter. The stable elected to freshen her up for four weeks since last start, presumably with an eye on targets in the spring.

Dangers: 4. Serpentine resumed a winner first up last campaign over 2200m, leading all of the way. It was only in a field of four but he held Kalapour at the finish. Like the way he speared to the line in a recent Randwick trial over 1200m suggesting that he has returned well. 5. Military Mission looks well set up out to 2400m now third up having run well behind Hosier two weeks ago in what looks a key form reference for this. Rachel King knows the stayer well. 8. Bonny Ezra has a perfect platform to attack 2400m himself.

How To Play It: Verona WIN

Race 6 - 2:40PM DARLEY FURIOUS STAKES (1200 METRES)

8. Cigar Flick was horribly suited in the Rosebud three weeks ago. She was out the back in a race where they walked in front. To get within half a length at the finish was a big run. She clocked the fastest last 200m split of the meeting and the second quickest last 600m sectional, bettered only by the flying Smashing Eagle. Have got a lean to that race as opposed to the Silver Shadow Stakes given there was just two lengths from first to eighth. Mixing it with the colts is also a positive, even allowing for the fact that the form didn’t stand up in the San Domenico Stakes. Cigar Flick will need to turn the tables on Tiz Invincible, and meets her 3kg worse off given the set weights, but a truer run race will play to her strength. Can settle closer from the draw too.

Dangers: 3. Tiz Invincible had the race play out perfectly in the Rosebud but she delivered when it counted. Looks nicely set up out to 1200m now second up, joining up in the Princess Series. 5. Kimochi charged to the line in the Silver Shadow to run 2. Autumn Ballet to a narrow margin. The kinder draw on Saturday can see Kimochi turn the tables. Staying at 1200m looks fine for her. The same can’t be said for 9. Amazonian Lass who might be looking for 1400m already. She was left flatfooted first up but was hitting the line harder than anything. It was a lovely Flight Stakes trial. 11. Summer Loving also caught the eye late, having to sustain a long looping run from the tail. A similar task confronts her Saturday.

How To Play It: Cigar Flick WIN

Race 7 - 3:15PM SOUTHERN CROSS GROUP CONCORDE STAKES (1000 METRES)

1. Nature Strip returns with a point to prove. As does his trainer Chris Waller. The nine-year-old has largely been written off after a disappointing spring that saw him beaten in the Lightning Stakes first up and then the TAB Everest six weeks later. Sure, he’s unlikely to reach the heights of Royal Ascot ever again but if there is one thing we’ve learnt from Nature Strip over the years, it’s his ability to bounce back. All indications are that the sprinter feels like the Nature Strip of old. James McDonald has been very positive in his appraisal after two trials and he’d know, having ridden him 25 times. The wide draw suits as it’ll allow McDonald to ride his own race, keep him wide, in his rhythm and he’ll have a bunny to chase in his old sparring partner Eduardo.

Dangers: It’s a similar case for 3. Eduardo. He returns as a ten-year-old but he too could be one failure away from retirement. His runs in The Galaxy and Kingsford Smith were poor by his standards but he was beaten a lip over 1000m at Randwick first up. His record over the Randwick 1000m is 4:3-1-0. He is a short course specialist, not something many of his rivals here can claim. 5. In Secret isn’t a proven 1000m horse. She could be run off her feet early. She also has bigger targets down the line. Tipping she’ll have more improvement than most coming out of this run. 6. Bella Nipotina can be hit and miss at the start but if he can jump on terms she maps to find a lovely spot, ready to pounce if the leaders tip toe late.

How To Play It: Nature Strip WIN

Race 8 - 3:55PM DAILY PRESS CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES)

1. Think It Over is back. The eight-year-old resumed from a tendon injury in the Winx Stakes a fortnight ago as a $21 chance. He was beaten only a length and half by Fangirl and was chopped out for a run late. He wasn’t going to win but the margin is unfair. Nash Rawiller said post race that Think It Over travelled like the winner coming into the straight but was feeling the pinch late. As he was entitled to given he was 65 weeks between runs. He won this race two years ago, wearing down Riodini, with a gap back to Montefilia in third. His Randwick form is exceptional. Second up after a lengthy lay off is some query, and he is well found in early betting, but he’s the horse to beat. Particularly looking at how well he maps.

Dangers: 11. Montefilia has been second up out to 2000m in her most recent preparations. It will be interesting to see how she reacts to the mile this time in. She savaged the line in the Winx Stakes. Will be better again next time over a touch further. 10. Duais produced a similar performance to Montefilia but she too might be looking for 2000m. The Ed Cummings-trained mare looks set to play a role in some big spring features though. 2. Mo’unga was awful first up. He offered nothing late. It was too bad to be true. He is so much better than that and is one of the true WFA milers in the field. Forgive a good horse one bad run as the saying goes.

How To Play It: Think It Over WIN

Race 9 - 4:35PM AMD MEDICAL TRAMWAY STAKES (1400 METRES)

16. Olentia returned with a bang first up. It was only a BM88 but the manner in which she put her rivals away suggested more Group wins await. The four-year-old showed a sparkling turn of foot to put two lengths on the field. The runner up led and she came from last. She gave away race experience, race fitness and a head start and clocked a last 600m split five lengths faster than the next best in the race. That’s now five wins from six starts. Chris Waller was gushing in his appraisal for the mare post race too suggesting she is of Group One quality. Hard to argue off that and there’s still more to come. Saturday’s test is her toughest yet, a capacity field of hardened older horses but she deserves to be at the top of betting and a short priced favourite at that.

Dangers: 9. Zeyrek should get his desired dry track. The seven-year-old was in career best form last preparation which all kicked off with a first up win over 1400m. His form warranted a start in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The wet track brought him undone but he bounced back next start to run Zaaki to half a length. 4. Pericles got the job done first up at Rosehill three weeks ago, with natural improvement to come. 12. Hope In Your Heart simply never runs a bad race. There aren’t many more genuine racehorses than her going around at the moment. Did run fourth in the Doncaster over the autumn. 14. Sky Lab savaged the line first up behind Buenos Noches and is even better suited out to 1400m now.

How To Play It: Olentia WIN

Race 10 - 5:10PM WORLD GYM CASTLEREAGH HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

8. Garza Blanca had no luck at all first up behind Smashing Eagle when an odds on favourite. It doesn’t take too much imagination to conclude that he should have, at the very least, been fighting out the finish. He is a four-year-old loaded with talent. We’ve seen that in glimpses so far throughout his short career. There is more depth to this BM78 but he looks much better suited out to 1200m. He hasn’t quite been able to replicate the level of performance which saw him put three lengths on Greece at Cranbourne last campaign but he has that in his locker. It’s easy to forget that he is only seven starts into his career. James McDonald will balance up worse than midfield but the speed on paper will give him his chance.

Dangers: 6. Our Last Cash resumed with a career best win first up in Melbourne. The challenge for the six-year-old is now transitioning that straight track form at Flemington to Randwick around a bend. A win here and all off a sudden he is a Kosciuszko player. 3. Stromboli resumed as a gelding first up at the midweeks and always travelled like the winner. Can build further on what is already an impressive record with four wins from 10 starts. 4. Time To Boogie is holding his form well at the moment and will spear forward to make his own luck again. It just comes down to early pressure. New recruit to the Chris Waller yard 15. Saltcoats adds interest.

How To Play It: Garza Blanca WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting

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