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Brad Gray's Tips For Royal Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 11:00AM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

2. Cigar Flick started hard in the market in three Group races in her first preparation and wasn’t beaten far by the lines of Learning To Fly and Facile. She was on the second tier of two-year-olds. After winning on debut back in January at Canterbury, James McDonald was gushing in his appraisal of the Churchill filly. Chris Waller brings her back in the winter presumably to build her confidence and her record, with the knowledge that wet tracks won’t stop her. She won her maiden on a heavy track. Cigar Flick has trialled twice ahead of her return and looked good on both occasions, not being asked to do much. She also possesses gate speed which looks significant in this small field. Can see her finding a spot outside of the likely leader Epic Proportions.

Dangers: 1. Epic Proportions profiles as the main danger, as his short quote suggests. He sped along in the early and middle stages on debut at Canterbury, which broke his rivals. He was stopping late but was entitled to. The time was comparable to impressive five length winner Commemorative on the same day. The placegetters Zouprince and King Of Dubai have franked the form. 3. Misty Legend justified being sent around at $1.40 at Newcastle first up. The placegetters have been well beaten at Scone and Taree since.

How To Play It: Cigar Flick WIN

Race 2 - 11:35AM FURPHY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

5. West Of Africa is one of the few horses here that has already proven to be a genuine Saturday class horse. The colt had no luck first up at Randwick over 1300m when sixth behind Overriding. He settled last from the wide gate, was ridden for luck in the straight and didn’t see daylight until it was too late. He probably should have been fighting out the finish. It was an encouraging return from the three-year-old. The son of Not A Single Doubt matched it with Soothsayer in Queensland last campaign. That reads as a strong reference in the context of his rivals here. He isn’t blessed with early speed which isn’t ideal given the make up of the race. It could be a battle of tactics. Happy to back that his talent will overcome settling down in the second half of the field.

Dangers: Have still got trust issues to work through with 7. Noble Conqueror but there is no denying that there is a talented racehorse in there somewhere. What has stood out from his two trials back ahead of his return is that he jumped on terms. It was an issue that plagued him last campaign, slow getaways. 3. Little Beginnings was brave at Canterbury last start given the work he was made to do in the early stages to get outside of the leader. Has to step off that again but he’s charging through the grades now that he has found his form. 4. Step Aside faces a tricky draw but he is versatile in terms of where he can settle. He too comes through the Overriding race at Randwick. 2. Token Capitalist ran there too but was very disappointing. Almost too bad to be true.

How To Play It: West Of Africa WIN

Race 3 - 12:10PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

It was hard to miss the first up run of 2. Burrandana. The four-year-old rattled home at the finish to run fourth. No horse was finishing harder than him, backed up by his closing splits, and this is a very similar race. Same track, same trip, same Highway company. It’s just that this is a Class 3 and not a Class 2. He’ll need to turn the tables on Salute Again but confident that he will. Go back to last preparation and the Wagga-based gelding was mixing it with some of the better country trained gallopers around when competitive in the Country Championships qualifiers. He took ground off Bianco Vilano at Albury, where the winner broke the track record, before starting hard in the market in the Goulburn Wild Card boxing on okay to be beaten 2.6L by I’ve Been Tryin’. The booking of Jason Collett looks an astute one too.

Dangers: 3. Miracle Day lost his way which saw him transferred to Dar Lunn at Dubbo. Having had the three runs for his new stable he is now eligible for Highways, so this looks to have been a targeted race. Has had circumstances against at his past couple of runs. Has won a trial since at Mudgee. 7. Cavaup won a maiden and Class 2 in succession before she ran out of her grade at Ipswich, where she wasn’t beaten far by Mumbai Jewel. She looks to be starting to put it all together now. 5. Salute Again had everything fall into place for him two weeks ago from a low gate, causing an upset but he took advantage. It doesn’t look as straightforward from the draw on Saturday. 6. Chase My Crown couldn’t quite chase down Salute Again last start. Little query staying at 1400m.

How To Play It: Burrandana WIN

Race 4 - 12:45PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

11. Star Impact has hit a purple patch of form. The Mark Minervini-trained mare was only beaten two lengths by Overriding three starts ago at Newcastle before backing that up with a Wyong win and a second to Allasandra at the midweeks. She led last start and gave a sight. There is enough depth to her form lines to suggest that she’ll more than hold her own in this. Gets some weight relief dropping down to 55kg and she maps to get a soft run from the inside draw. Wouldn’t think she’d lead this, having found herself in front by default three weeks ago, instead just tucking in behind. In a race with 10 or more genuine winning hopes she has as much of a chance as anything else here given the set up. Each way.

Dangers: 5. Diamond Diesel has run five consecutive placings this preparation, the latest three of those in Midway company. The blinkers go on for the first time here which might squeeze out that extra length required for him to turn his run of form into a win. Entitled to be the early favourite as he has to be the starting point for the race just due to his consistency. 4. Nosey Parker was too bad to be true at Randwick last start. He didn’t fire a shot. Inclined to forgive him one bad run given what he had done in his three starts prior. Four weeks between runs and has had a trial. 7. Twice As Special rattled home to win a Midway first up. Needs things to fall into place again from the draw but Tom Sherry sticks. 8. Amathuba could improve with the blinkers again but the gate doesn’t help.

How To Play It: Star Impact WIN

Race 5 - 1:20PM GIPPS ST SOCIAL HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

This isn’t any harder than the race 3. Resonator won last Saturday at Rosehill, even with it being a BM78. It was a BM72 he won. That’s now two on the bounce for the front-running three-year-old. He is no superstar but has been well placed this time back with the stable again finding a race that Resonator can completely own from in front. The form around him looks handy too, fighting out the finish with Semana two starts ago over this same track and trip. A hard-fit Waterhouse and Bott-trained gelding, on the back up, in winning form and could dictate. Throw into the mix the determination he has found recently. Apprentice Amy McLucas has had 12 rides for the stable she is now on loan to, for four winners and four placings.

Dangers: 2. Excelladus looked sure to run straight past Stonecoat two weeks ago at Randwick but had to settle for second. This is a comparable race. Like that there was 1.7L back to third, that third horse being 1. Battleton, who looks to have a task in turning the tables. Excelladus draws soft and should be able to follow Resonator everywhere he goes in the straight, getting his chance to peel off his back. 11. Mirra View should also get a cosy run from an inside draw. She stuck on okay behind Vienna Princess last start. She’s a very genuine mare. Would love the track to be wetter though. 8. Silent Agenda is the other runner worth mentioning given he was making late ground behind Stonecoat and was only first up.

How To Play It: Resonator WIN

Race 6 - 1:55PM RACING FOR GOOD ON JULY 29 HANDICAP (2000 METRES)

3. Manbehindthemoney has enough speed to offset the draw if he is aggressively ridden to settle handy. That looks significant in this field given the lack of pressure on paper. A wide gate over 2000m at Randwick with the rail out a long way typically spells disaster so Regan Bayliss will need to show intent. It’s trouble otherwise. Manbehindthemoney was a touch unlucky in defeat behind Grebini three weeks ago when trapped in behind the speed, and a dawdling one at that. Coming back from 1900m to 1800m played against him too. Keen to see the import out to 2000m for the first time in Australia. Annabel Neasham holds a strong hand in the race but the tactical speed that this four-year-old possesses looks all important. Leaning his way.

Dangers: 7. Touristic sizzled home behind Manbehindthemoney, horribly suited by the lack of pressure, before backing that up with a smart win at Rosehill last Saturday. He fronts up seven days later and he too looks suited out to 2000m now. 8. McGeehan could be the sleeper in the field. He could find himself the default leader and he should have finished closer to Manbehindthemoney four weeks ago. 5. Mutamanni and 9. Intuitu are another two imports with more to offer.

How To Play It: Manbehindthemoney WIN

Race 7 - 2:35PM VALE RAY SELKRIG HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

When kept to this distance range 1. Insurrection has shown the ability to do it at both ends. Where he has drawn makes things interesting given his main danger Brudenell has the potential to punch up and make him work in the early stages. The three-year-old made light work of a similar gate two weeks ago in this same grade, spearing across to lead before running away on the line. His first up defeat to Omni Man doesn’t look so bad now either, as he lowered the colours of Passeggiata on Wednesday. Insurrection and Brudenell have met in the past, clashing at Flemington down the straight and Insurrection finished three lengths ahead of him. That was at level weights. It’s an intriguing battle of speed but as it stands, Insurrection looks the one to beat. The market looks to have that right.

Dangers: 2. Brudenell has won five of his eight career starts, adding to that tally first up at Rosehill. Was surprised how easily he ambled across to lead before holding on late, to beat a subsequent winner in Waverider Buoy. Dylan Gibbons holds the tactical ace regarding barriers and early positions. 9. Custodian hasn’t gone on with it despite showing glimpses of talent. He returns a gelding and has had two trials ahead of his return. The latest of those was eye catching, only asked to find the line late. 8. Wategos also impressed in a recent trial. He won out to 1550m last campaign but resumed with a win over 1000m. 7. Curtis Island has run second to Iowna Merc and Insurrection at his past two.

How To Play It: Insurrection WIN

Race 8 - 3:15PM ROBRICK LODGE WINTER STAKES (1400 METRES)

3. Tamahere may have just taken a preparation to acclimatise to Australian conditions. The mare, who raced in France and the USA prior to finding a home with Annabel Neasham, should have been fighting out the finish in the Civic Stakes first up. She ran into dead ends all the way up the straight. That was despite being first up for 46 weeks. There has never been a doubt over her class already being a Group Two winner in America. It’s hard to make much sense of the Civic Stakes given the busy finish and messy nature of the race but it does again look the logical reference coming into this, providing the majority of runners. The market hasn’t missed Tamahere but she maps to get every chance again and four of the past five winners of the race have carried 57kg or more so class has risen to the top recently.

Dangers: Reluctant to overlook the obvious in the Civic Stakes winner 2. Ucalledit. He had everything fall into place but its not like he is going around short odds on the back of that. In fact, he was bigger odds than a fortnight ago in first markets! He has won eight of his 15 starts over 1400m. 16. Lady Of Luxury found the line better than most in the Civic Stakes, finishing midfield.

How To Play It: Tamahere EACH WAY

Race 9 - 3:55PM BOWERMANS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

It was a disaster from start to finish for 11. Iowna Merc last start. Everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong. He shifted off fore plate in the tie up stalls. Reared in the gates which saw Amy McLucas smack her head on the barrier partition. Iowna Merc then began awkwardly, was shuffled back and never got into the race. He did an enormous job to be beaten just three lengths. His two wins prior to that flagged him as a sprinter that would charge through the grades, beating Kibou over this same track and trip the start prior. The three-year-old has to take on BM88 company on Saturday but he drops to 54.5kg on the back of that, after the claim of Dylan Gibbons. Gibbons was on when Iowna Merc won two starts ago. Suspect we’ll get better on the day compared to what is being bet in early markets.

Dangers: 4. Wewillrock was 1200m back to 1100m last start and that told at the finish. He was outsprinted by a couple of his rivals before coming again through the line. The former Kiwi is better placed back out to 1200m and was hard held in a trial since then, to bridge the four week gap. 1. Conscript comes through the same race where he was $3.40 favourite. Never got the chance to let down, stuck in behind runners at a vital stage. Forgive him that. 3. Fox Fighter hasn’t had much go right himself at his past two starts. His get back style welcomes that but don’t be too quick to dismiss him. 2. Much Much Better looks suited drawing wide, allowing him to stride across in his own time. He typically races well fresh.

How To Play It: Iowna Merc WIN

Race 10 - 4:30PM ATC MEMBERS LEANNE SANZARI HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

1. Kir Royale is the classiest mare engaged and looks well placed first up over 1100m from the middle draw against her own sex. The Chris Waller-trained sprinter is already 11 starts into her career but it’s easy to get the impression that there’s still more to come. The trick is getting her to settle in her races and that’s been an ongoing project. She’s always been a mare that has commanded plenty of market respect. She jumped $5.50 in a Group Three last preparation, albeit a weak one. The last time she raced in this company she won, it also happened to be her only previous run over this trip too, beating Forzanini and a luckless Snapped. Kir Royale won a trial at Rosehill recently in good style to suggest that she has returned as well as ever and the claim of Zac Lloyd offsets the 61.5kg she was originally asked to carry.

Dangers: 2. Forzanini wasn’t beaten far in Listed company first up against the boys. She’s also well placed back to her own sex for the first time since that clash with Kir Royale where there was little between them at the finish. All four of her career wins have come over 1100m. 13. Petulant beat Star Spirit four weeks ago at Canterbury and has been freshened up since. A long overdue third career win coincided with the blinkers going on for the first time. The gate is a big negative for 5. Diamond Dealer but she charged through the grades last preparation and like how she hunted down the line in a recent trial.

How To Play It: Kir Royale WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting

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