By Brad Gray
Race 1 - 11:20AM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES) |
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19. Molly Nails warrants plenty of respect. She’s one of the class runners here and boasts an imposing first up record (4:2-1-1). Was given a quiet trial ahead of her return. Wasn’t beaten far by Juan Diva last preparation and gets James McDonald to ride.
Dangers: 8. Iconic Dame has a tricky gate to overcome but he put 3.5 lengths on his rivals in Highway company four weeks ago. That’s now three from five overall and two from two this campaign. 15. Rebel Dreamer gets a weight swing of 2.5kg on 3. So Country. 13. Sir Ravanelli comes through that same Highway and threw the race away. 14. Smooth Esprit will likely find 1200m too sharp but few will be stronger late. The penny really dropped with him at the backend of last preparation.
How To Play It: Molly Nails WIN
Race 2 - 11:55AM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1100 METRES) |
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4. Fire And Ice resumed a dominant winner at Wyong first up delivering on the promise he teased in his first campaign. He can go right on with it now.
Dangers: 2. Voldemort will get a long way back from the draw but he has a big motor, as he proved on debut before backing that up in the G3 Kindergarten. 12. Waverider Buoy has upside. 1. Sweet Ride is very speedy and well suited to the Rosehill 1100m. He was full of running in his recent trial romp while respect 13. Opal Ridge.
How To Play It: Fire And Ice EACH WAY
Race 3 - 12:30PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1300 METRES) |
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4. Contributingfactor brings the strongest form reference into this. He was beaten 4.8 lengths at Randwick but it’s a race that has produced six subsequent winners, with Jojo Was A Man and Cross Talk fighting out the finish. The was seven weeks ago now which is a little query in itself but being kept fresh between runs has been working for the rising four-year-old most recently. Prior to his boxing ninth he won at Newcastle having parked outside of the leader on heavy ground. Trainer David Atkins elects to throw the blinkers on for the first time here too, just to sharpen him up a touch more. The other thing in his favour is his versatility. Drawn where he is, Kerrin McEvoy has the option of rolling forward to be a handy with a clean getaway or ride him on the conservative side.
Dangers: 14. Kennedy Choice was plain in Midway company first up before bouncing back at Kembla Grange. Love the way he maps in this and he strikes it third up. 8. Belle Espoir is another runner that maps perfectly. Can mix her form, however. 7. Bartoselli rates a mention too.
How To Play It: Contributingfactor WIN
Race 4 - 1:05PM ATC THANK YOU OWNERS HANDICAP (1800 METRES) |
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1. Lovely Esteem has a sense of timing about her third up out to 1800m, with James McDonald booked. The import caught the eye running a luckless eighth first up over 1300m, finding the journey a touch too sharp, before reappearing four weeks later out to 1500m. She was forced back to the tail of the field from the draw and kept finding the line to run third. She comes back to her own sex for this, hence the 60kg, and draws a gate that can see her park up closer. Given her main danger looks the likely leader Narrated, McDonald will be mindful of keeping her within his sights. Lovely Esteem has just the one win from her ten starts but six of her eight runs when trained overseas were in black type races. Looks ready to win and the early price sees her on top.
Dangers: 2. Narrated is the obvious threat. She is flying this preparation and looks to control this race from in front. The daughter of Snitzel did a power of early work at Doomben last start in Group Three company and wasn’t entitled to be coming again through the line. She too looks nicely set up out to 1800m. 3. Elusive Jewel is a super consistent mare and was probably found out over a staying journey in Queensland last start. Back in trip, in grade and onto a wetter track can see her run up to her best again. Why is 10. Sprout Wings the rank outsider? She beat 5. Yggdrasil fair and square two starts ago and meets her 4kg better off! 8. Notions is ready for this trip and 9. Monfelicity has clearly returned well.
How To Play It: Lovely Esteem WIN
Race 5 - 1:40PM NSWROA TROPHY (1100 METRES) |
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7. Shades Of Rose is due a change of fortune. She brought about her own undoing first up putting on a bucking display in the early stages which put her out of play. Then second up, after being forced back to the trials, she copped a bump out of the gates which saw her to sit three deep the trip. After dashing clear like she was going to win regardless, The Big Easy peeled off her back to grab her late. It was an outstanding effort from her given the run she was forced to endure. Prior to this campaign she had won three on the bounce and the way she trialled ahead of her return this time back suggested that she would tear through the grades. It hasn’t gone to plan yet but expecting her to right the ship on Saturday before Bjorn Baker can aim her up at more lucrative targets.
Dangers: 15. Twilight Affair is very lightly raced given she is soon to be five. Did start hard in the market when third behind Rule Of Law in her first preparation and the way she has trialled this time back suggests that she can go right on with it now. 16. Transformation is a sneaky hope at odds of running into the money stepping out for Melanie O’Gorman for the first time.
How To Play It: Shades Of Rose WIN
Race 6 - 2:15PM ATC THANK YOU STABLE STAFF HANDICAP (1300 METRES) |
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Of the main chances in this, 6. Pizarro looks the best suited by the 1300m. The barrier isn’t ideal but there are six emergencies to come out. The son of All Too Hard will need a few things to fall into place for him to win but he backed up an eye catching return with a close up second to Pretty Wild at Rosehill over 1200m. If it was more truly run in the early stages, he probably wins. In defeat the John O’Shea-trained gelding clocked some of the quickest closing splits of the meeting. He has his hoof firmly on the till and creeping out slightly again in trip is ideal now. He has now has five starts and is yet to finish outside of the top two. It’s not a gamble that comes without risks given his likely settling position but at the early price, happy to take the chance that he has the turn of foot to overcome it.
Dangers: 1. Kanazawa comes back from 1400m to 1300m but he is flying this time back and was rewarded at Randwick three weeks ago, scoring a dominant win. The extra weight is offset by the claim of Reece Jones. 3. Kalino was set to run over 1500m last Saturday. Plan B sees him drop back to 1300m. In his favour, however, is how well he maps and that he finds James McDonald. There’s a case to be made that the positives outweigh the negatives for a horse still on the up. 4. Deep Romance ran out an impressive winner over this same track and trip four weeks ago. There is more depth here but the strength of that win makes her a player. 15. The Himalayas rates a mention.
How To Play It: Pizarro WIN
Race 7 - 2:50PM SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT SHELBY SIXTYSIX HANDICAP (1800 METRES) |
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1. Wicklow should be too classy for these. The import maybe hasn’t quite made the impression we thought he might this preparation but he did show a lovely turn of foot to win second up before being outsprinted in the South Grafton Cup last start when the $2.90 favourite. He looked to have every chance there but raced like he wanted a touch further. Coming back to BM78 company and out to 1800m should see him rediscover his best again. He won over this track and trip last campaign as an $1.40 pop where he beat talented stablemate Crystal Pegasus. He was 46 weeks on the sidelines before resuming this time back so he was always going to take a couple of runs to hit his straps. No excuses now. Time for Wicklow to stand up.
Dangers: 11. Karlstad led last start and kept battling away at the finish. He has the right form lines to prove competitive in this but it’s hard to see him turning the tables on Fjordland. 14. Aramis has more upside than any of his rivals and gets in very light after the claim. 2. Philipsburg has been up since February but he continues to turn up. Just have a query over the depth of the race he comes out of won by 3. Caesars Palace. 10. Tudor Prince is chasing five straight.
How To Play It: Wicklow WIN
Race 8 - 3:30PM ATC FOUNDATION WINTER CHALLENGE (1500 METRES) |
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12. Cross Talk has to turn the tables on 9. Jojo Was A Man from Randwick two starts ago but he was only second up there and he has since cantered in. The gelding has won four of his six starts and is still spiralling upwards. He was forced to take a trail at Randwick three weeks ago but it mattered little, trouncing his rivals by nearly four lengths eased down. It was arrogant. He wasn’t originally in this race last Saturday but the timing is now perfect after it was postponed a week for him to be tested at this level. He does jump in grade from BM78 to Listed company but he drops 6kg because of it. Like the wide draw allowing Jean Van Overmeire to take his time to cross the field before taking up the running. The step out to 1500m looks perfect now too.
Dangers: 9. Jojo Was A Man is in career best form. He has won three from five this preparation and comes off a narrow defeat to Taksu. He raced like he wants the mile now. Imagine that his regular Reece Jones will look to keep Cross Talk within his sights, parking on his back. 1. Gold Trip is a genuine Group One horse. He has spent 56 weeks on the sidelines, however, and is months away from his spring grand finals. 13. Snippy Fox was no match for Waihaha Falls last start but there is no shame in that. It’s an opportunistic throw at the stumps to land some black type but she sets up to get into the money as she loves heavy ground too. The Waller brigade of 6. Oscar Zulu and 11. Toomuchtobear have some claims.
How To Play It: Cross Talk WIN
Race 9 - 4:10PM BILL PICKEN OAM HANDICAP (1100 METRES) |
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3. Enchanted Heart sets up well back to 1100m on a heavy track after contesting the Group One Tastt’s Tiara four weeks ago at Eagle Farm over 1400m. That was on a good track too. The rising six-year-old finished second last and was sent around a $101 chance but she was only beaten seven lengths by Startantes and Snapdancer, which reads well for this in the context of what her main dangers offer up as far as recent form goes. Enchanted Heart can drift in and out of form and it’s been over a year since she last won so it’s not a gamble that doesn’t come without risks but she sets up to run up to her best and that’s good enough to win this. The wetter the better as she is the best credentialed wet tracker here.
Dangers: 1. Prime Candidate couldn’t muster the speed to cross in the Ramornie and travelled deep throughout. Forgive him that. Would be much more confident about his chances on a firmer track, however. Respect that he is the class runner and like the pairing with Nash Rawiller. 7. Easy Single drops 4.5kg from last start, up in grade. The timing is right for him to measure up in something better and he maps to get every chance in the run. 2. Rocketing By has some wet form but is 41 weeks between runs. He’s a capable sprinter though and like the way he has trialled ahead of his return. Godolphin have plenty of success racing horses out of their grade, plummeting in weight. It’s 10. Seige here.
How To Play It: Enchanted Heart WIN
Race 10 - 4:50PM ATC THANK YOU TRAINERS HANDICAP (1300 METRES) |
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10. Sur La Mer had her chance last start but bumped into talented stablemate Frumos. She is flying this preparation and gets the speed on to suit.
Dangers: 1. Titanium Power won’t get it all his own way in front which makes him vulnerable late, particularly with 62.5kg, but he is such a strong, tenacious horse. His form through Cross Talk last start should measure up in this. 13. Tawfiq Lass deserves a crack in Saturday company having been so impressive at the midweeks recently. She has been up forever but continues to race well on wet tracks. 9. Nerone is another wet tracker well suited to the conditions. 4. Opacity is capable of sharp improvement second up and while 6. Canasta will be better for the run, he is too consistent to discount.
How To Play It: Sur La Mer WIN
All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill meeting