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By Brad Gray

2. Astero has been racing well for a while now, without reward. It’s been 76 weeks since he last won. Go back through his form from last preparation, with seconds to Rustic Steel and Norwegian Bliss reading well for this. The five-year-old resumed at Randwick in Midway company and he was pinned away on the fence before making steady late ground in restricted room. That should bring him on nicely for a similar assignment second up. Dylan Gibbons takes the ride and he should be able to take advantage of the lack of speed on paper to slide forward to settle down in the first four. He’ll need to turn the tables on Either Oar and Eye See Things from a fortnight ago but they both had a fitness edge. It looks the right form reference, with the winner Liberty Sun subsequently running well on Tuesday at Randwick.

Dangers: It’s hard to knock the form 8. Either Oar finds herself in at the moment. She has run placings in Midways at her past two outings and prior to that had no luck again in Midway company over this same track and trip. Prefer her on a good track too. 4. Black Duke comes out of a farcicially run race behind Cotehele seven days ago. He’s hard to catch with just two wins from 26 starts but this sets up for him to run up to his best with the blinkers back on. 6. Danish Prince didn’t get the clearest passage home in the Four Pillars last Saturday and was beaten less than three lengths. Just has to cope with a drop back from 1500m to 1300m. 10. Eye See Things has the right form lines while the same can be said for 9. Verbek.

How To Play It: Astero WIN

5. Sir Ravanelli has been a work in progress for Terry Evans but despite still learning on the job the lightly-raced grey is still producing on the track. He’s a proven Highway Handicap performer having placed in three of them, and run fourth in his only other try. The latest of those was just seven days ago where he finished third having come from well back in the field. It added the string to his bow of being able to settle down in the second half and still rattle to the line. He handles all track conditions too. Jockey Regan Bayliss got familiar with Sir Ravanelli and his quirks on that occasion so will be better for the experience. Stretches to 1400m for the first time but he profiles like he’ll relish it. The only knock is the price.

Dangers: 8. Brazen Impact was sent around big odds in the same Highway as Sir Ravanelli last start and he didn’t get much room. The barrier looks problematic but he deserves his place in the market. 4. Lockdown Gamble maps to get favours in run. He just found 1000m too sharp first up. 6. Zadig was a Highway winner back in June but he too has to overcome a tricky draw.

How To Play It: Sir Ravanelli WIN

3. King Frankel has hit the ground running in his first Australian preparation. The Mark Newnham-trained import has won two of his three starts for Mark Newnham and there’s a case to be made that only the track pattern denied him victory at Randwick in between the two victories. Last start the five-year-old dropped back to midweek company and justified his odds on quote. Although the margin was only narrow at the finish he was always in control having taken up the running. There was four lengths back to third. The improving stayer has to stretch out to 2400m now and transfer his wet form onto a dry track but he won his maiden on a good track in the UK by 32 lengths! Albeit in a field of three runners as a $1.80 pop. Still, he has more upside than anything else here.

Dangers: The dry track is key for 6. Pale King. That became even more evident seven days ago where he improved sharply to win at Rosehill over 1900m having been beaten 20 lengths the start prior on a heavy 10 at Randwick. He landed some good bets too. Keen to see him back out to 2400m but on a bone dry deck. It might prove the opposite for 9. Essential Sky. Her recent run of form may be due to a run of wet tracks. In her defence, however, she has never raced better so we’ll know once and for all after Saturday if she’s simply a wet tracker. 2. Our Candidate has the winning feeling again, claiming two of his past four. Both 8. Suppression and 10. Sound Of Cannons have big margins to turnaround on King Frankel but are trending the right way.

How To Play It: King Frankel WIN

4. Willinga Rufio still went too fast last start which saw him picked off over the last 100. He was still only beaten a length. It all comes down to the first couple of hundred metres for the front-running four-year-old. If Tyler Schiller can establish control early, we’ve seen already in his six start career how dynamic he can be. Forget his failure prior to last start where he was carved up in front. White Marlin beat Manzoice in that BM72 too. Naval Seal has beaten home Willinga Rufio in their two previous clashes, granted, but Naval Seal had every possible favour on both occasions jumping straight onto his back. Doesn’t have the same luxury from the barrier this time. Perhaps Willinga Rufio is finding his level a little quicker than we thought he might but he still looks capable of working through the benchmarks.

Dangers: 7. Naval Seal mightn’t get the map favours this time but he was only first up two weeks ago, tackling the mile. He can only improve off that which obviously makes him a big player in this, as the market suggests. 9. Just A Jedi never got clear behind Pale King last Saturday. He has backed up quickly before and run well. 2. Greek Hero justified his odds on quote to win at Taree last start, carrying 62.5kg. The margin flattered his rivals as he always travelled like the winner. Was competitive at this level over this trip last preparation and doubt that changes here. 5. Colour Sergeant comes through the same race as Naval Seal last start and he’s trending the right way.

How To Play It: Willinga Rufio WIN

A lot of similar profiled horses make up this field. All capable on their day, it’s just hard to forecast what day that will be with any confidence. Leaning heavily on the map to find the winner given there is little between them. There doesn’t look to be a lot of pressure on paper so there’s every chance that 9. He’s A Hotshot leads. He’s no easy beat from there at double figure odds. The seven-year-old is an out-and-out dry tracker so that’s the first box ticked. Despite that he hasn’t won first up in the past, he has run three seconds from his seven fresh runs so he tends to come to hand quickly and Tyler Schiller knows him well. Had to go back a couple of preparations to find a race where he caried just 54kg.

Dangers: 4. Soami sets up to sprint well fresh over 1200m. The way he won a recent Warwick Farm trial suggests that he has returned as well as ever and five of his six career wins have come on good tracks. The knock on 2. Fox Fighter is seeing out a strong 1200m. He’s come up just short in the past. He is brilliant on top of the ground, however, so he still deserves plenty of respect. A sprint home probably suits his short, sharp sprint. 8. Broken Arrows always has knockout claims. 3. Bend The Knee resumes as a gelding while 1. Ventura Ocean does have some tactical speed.

How To Play It: He’s A Hotshot EACH WAY

The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained youngster 2. Coincide was narrowly beaten in the Kirkham Plate by Barber but he sets up to turn the tables. Both have drawn wide but Coincide has the tactical speed to offset the gate by spearing forward. Coincide, a half brother to Converge, mustered very quickly on debut to cross easily. He did everything right in the run only for Barber to peel off his back and grab him late. It was an on speed dominated race given the lack of pressure up front, and although this promises to be more truly run, his pedigree suggests he’s even better suited out to 1100m. He still clocked the third quickest last 200m in the race so he wasn’t exactly crawling to the line. His rivals will be doing well to catch him.

Dangers: The second quickest closing splits in the Kirkham belonged to 14. Shine Your Light, who was well supported at big odds. She didn’t get the clearest passage in the straight either. With due respect to trainer Cassandra Stummer, it’s the only justifiable reason we’re getting double figure odds. 3. Disneck chased down a stablemate to win his one 740m trial in what was comfortably the fastest heat of the morning. He was confidently backed when markets first went up too. 1. Barber goes from barrier 1 where he had all favours to the widest gate of the field which doesn’t make the task an easy one over the Rosehill 1100m. 9. Razors has the most scope to improve out of the Kirkham while 16. Maharba looks the best long shot. 15. Summer Loving is very well found.

How To Play It: Coincide WIN

You have to use your imagination to conclude where 12. Sheeza Belter would’ve finished in the Invitation first up had she got a clear at any stage. I dare suggest that it would have been first. She was travelling better than Electric Girl and she fought out the finish, albeit with a slightly interrupted run herself. That was on a soft track too. If her two-year-old form is any guide, Sheeza Belter is lengths better on top of the ground boasting a record of 5:4-1-0. The three-year-old allowance her sees her get in with 53kg. The draw looks perfect for the Peter and Paul Snowden-trained filly too. She should camp just forward of midfield behind what promises to be a genuine enough tempo for her to get her chance. We’re not getting double figure odds second up but she’s perfectly set up to atone.

Dangers: 1. Electric Girl won this race 12 months ago and she strikes this in better form. Last year she won it with a benchmark rating of 83. She’s now rated 105 so is the best suited by the set weights conditions. 4. Lavish Girl will punch up from barrier 1 and likely find the front. The Silver Eagle form has been franked via Waterford and Cotehele already and she split that pair. Want to be very forgiving of 6. Charleise’s first up effort where she floundered in the heavy conditions. Her stablemate Promise Of Success rebounded from a similar first up run to win at big odds second up. 7. Cliff’s Art could surprise at odds back onto a dry track. 10. Samoot is flying but she might need it wetter at this level. New import 5. Night Of Romance is the big unknown.

How To Play It: Sheeza Belter WIN

The only query with 1. Ellsberg is running out a strong 1800m. If he does, he should win the first running of the Five Diamonds putting a cherry on top of what has been a brilliant spring for the five-year-old. He dead heated for first in the Epsom with Top Ranked before putting a gap on his rivals in the Five Diamonds Prelude three weeks ago. He got control in front and was never losing. The map is very similar in this. Tommy Berry takes the ride this week and should have no trouble dictating from the outset give the low draw and with no other obvious speed horses engaged other than Rebel Rama. How strong Ellsberg was through the line last start suggests that he should get the extra journey and happy, in this instance, to take the short price to find out.

Dangers: 4. Ayrton, 9. Diamil and 10. Sibaaq were all well held by Ellsberg in the Prelude, it’s a stretch to make a case for them to turn the tables, even allowing for the fact that the latter three have all run well since with two of them winning. Rebel Rama was brave through that same race, covering ground, and she’s better set up out to 1800m second up. Can definitely sneak into the money off that effort and with likely on speed favours. 2. Laws Of Indices was only beaten 2.7L in the Cox Plate last start! Prior to that he produced a huge run to get into second in the G1 Toorak. He’s going to need a similar finish from the gate here. 7. Uncle Bryn’s form lines read well too.

How To Play It: Ellsberg WIN

4. I Am Me charged through the grades last preparation winning three on the bounce before running fourth in a Listed race at Scone behind Zapateo. Respect that she jumped $3.70 and a clear favourite. She’ll bounce out from the low draw, park in behind the speed and get her chance. Resumes off one soft 760m trial.

Dangers: 1. Coco Rox was slow away first up at Warwick Farm and that was her race over. Her form ties in neatly to both Winning Verse and I Am Me. 8. Devils Triangle was forced to loop the field at Warwick Farm first up when it was an advantage to be closer to the fence that meeting. Hugh Bowman sticks.

How To Play It: I Am Me WIN

Taking the leap of faith that 7. Arnaqueur can repeat what he did at Randwick back in August. That was off an 11 weeks break first up over 1400m. Here he is off a 13 week break over 1400m on the back of a very similar trial. It’s no coincidence that all three of the four-year-old’s wins have been first up. His only fresh failure was in a Country Championships qualifier where he was sent around as a $2.40 chance. He wasn’t himself for the entire preparation, however. Looking back through the 14 start career of Arnaqueur, it appears that trainer Jean Dubios has been learning about the son of Astern as he goes. He was stretched out to 2000m but wasn’t as effective. Fresh over shorter tips looks to be his go. The prospect of a dry track and a small field are also ticks.

Dangers: 4. Bella Rouge just has to overcome a tricky draw. The four-year-old just found 1200m a touch too sharp first up, doing her best work through the line after being shuffled back in the run. Back in grade, out in trip onto a dry track is a lovely set up. It’s easy to forget that she’s still only had nine starts. Her best is still ahead of her. 6. I Am Lethal has had circumstances against him in his three runs back this time in, the latest of those just last Saturday where his stablemate Cotehele just got it too easy in front. He was still entitled to hit the line with more gusto but the blinkers go back on now and two of his three career wins have been in shades. 2. Starman looks ready to improve third up.

How To Play It: Arnaqueur EACH WAY

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill meeting