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Brad Gray's Tips For Rosehill Gardens (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 12:30PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

2. Mogwai has held his form in three runs for Robert and Luke Price after being transferred from Godolphin. The son of Epaulette was a first up winner at his home track Kembla Grange having led in a field of eight runners with 61kg on his back. He then wasn’t beaten far by Zondee in a BM78 before boxing on fairly when midfield behind Bunker Hut. Again, that was in BM78 company. He was back to 1350m there which counted against him. This isn’t a deep Midway so that last start form reference still reads well despite being beaten 4.5 lengths. The four-year-old has won out to 1550m in the past and his tactical speed looks significant given the lack of pressure on paper. Anything goes in this but happy to have Mogwai on top.

Dangers: The wide barrier doesn’t help 7. Hell’s Itch but the patience of the owners started to pay off last campaign with the lightly-raced five-year-old winning two of his three starts. The second of those was out to 1500m. He resumed with an eye-catching sixth at Kembla Grange. The run was better than it reads on paper, finding 1200m too sharp. Gets out quickly to 1500m second up. Some knock that he might be half a run short. 10. Rush Attack has finished top two in his past five starts. He’s genuine and makes his own luck. Should be thereabouts again given his consistency and racing pattern. 8. It’s A Wonder gets blinkers first time. That could spark improvement. She raced flat last start in Midway company as a $7 chance. 12. Pretty Tavi is close to another win. 13. Inferencia blowout claims.

How To Play It: Mogwai WIN

Race 2 - 1:05PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

11. Exit Fee looks to have the right Highway form lines. The three-year-old was only beaten two lengths by Clear Thinking and Highway Strip two starts ago at Randwick before being narrowly beaten by Lisztomania two weeks ago. He found a four wide running line in a compacting field and after presenting like the winner, he was nailed on the line. This isn’t any harder. The market has recognised that but he only has to hold his form to be in the finish again. The draw can see him potentially settle a pair or two closer and Zac Lloyd stays aboard having been on at his past two starts. The Danny Williams-trained galloper is learning his craft on the job so will continue to improve with racing.

Dangers: 6. Wal’s Angels was expected to win at the Sapphire Coast last start when sent around an odds on favourite. Maybe he resented racing tight between runners. Not sure what to make of that run but he was disappointing. Prior to that he chased home Swift Charm when second in a Highway over 1400m. He jumped $5. Maps well and gets his chance to bounce back. 9. Off The Press kept closing in the same Highway as Exit Fee. His run had just as much merit given he had to settle last from the wide draw. The knock on Saturday is that he again draws wide. 3. Point Basse looked talent in his first preparation before losing his way in two runs last campaign. Returns a gelding and trialled well at Scone recently. 12. Kayz Time is a lightly-raced filly building a great record while 2. Kreon could be worth another chance.

How To Play It: Exit Fee WIN

Race 3 - 1:40PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

This looks an important race to get the speed map right. Banking on 7. Winston Hills settling much closer than his past two starts given the make up of this field. The five-year-old does have some early toe. He hasn’t been done any favours by wide gates in bigger fields recently. Three starts ago he found himself outside of the leader. Four starts back he box seated and ran a luckless fourth. The five-year-old is deep into his preparation but continues to hold his form. Creeps back out to 1300m which looks ideal and Jason Collett knows the son of Invader well having ridden him at his past four starts. It’s all about positional speed in this and can see Winston Hills one-out-one back with early intent to hold the back of Lady Boss.

Dangers: 10. Lady Boss kept chasing behind Bunker Hut three weeks ago. Her tactical speed looks an asset on Saturday. There was little between the closing splits of Lady Boss and 5. Step Aside last time out. That makes them hard to separate on Saturday but Step Aside risks being buried away on the fence from barrier 1 in what could be a sprint home. The case for Step Aside is that he gets the blinkers back on and should derive good improvement from that last start third. He lost his rider first up. 8. French Ruler brings a different form line. The three-year-old stepped off a luckless Midway second to not be beaten far in two Group races against his own age. Three trials should have him ready to go fresh. Maps to be out the back with 3. Peace Officer, who is also the next best.

How To Play It: Winston Hills WIN

Race 4 - 2:15PM RANVET HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

1. Bonita Queen looks tailor-made for the Rosehill 1100m. It’ll be the first time that the speedy four-year-old races at the track. Trainer Bjorn Baker tested her in Group Three company last week at Randwick and despite running along in the early and middle stages, she only faded late to run fourth beaten less than two lengths. The daughter of I Am Invincible has been found out slightly at the end of 1200m at her past two starts. Love the set up here back to 1100m, on the seven day turnaround and back to BM78 company. She should own this race from in front without any other noted leaders. That’s not to say that she’ll go slow, her speed is her asset, but she’ll run the race to suit herself. It looks an astute three kilo claim too with Ben Osmond riding.

Danger: 12. Theblade raced too keen in one run before spelling last campaign. He is better than that. Respect that he jumped $2.70 in a race won by Private Harry. The three-year-old colt made a huge impression on debut at the midweeks, putting 5.5 lengths on his five rivals. Won a recent trial and gets in with just 52.5kg. The Hawkes stable have also accepted at Canterbury with the son of Toronado. 5. Enriched is another talented three-year-old colt but with Michael Freedman. He raced his way through the Coolmore over the spring. Maps well and he too comes here on the back of a trial win. That was in Open company and a strong heat. 6. Wallenda made good late ground at Warwick Farm first up giving away an impossible start.

How To Play It: Bonita Queen WIN

Race 5 - 2:50PM BISLEY WORKWEAR MILLIE FOX STAKES (1300 METRES)

1. Makarena should beat these. The Hawkes-trained mare is beautifully placed under the conditions of this Group Two against the mares. Her benchmark rating towers over most of her rivals. The four-year-old was brilliant over the spring. She resumed with a brave fourth in the Sheraco over 1200m having to cart the field up to tearaway leader Belclare. Sunshine In Paris won the race with Joliestar in third. She then won the Golden Pendant out to 1400m, controlling the race from outside of the leader. Amelia’s Jewel ran second. She contested the Alan Brown and Invitation before battling on courageously to run fourth in the Golden Eagle despite being set around a $61 chance. The 1300m looks a perfect kick off point having won a recent trial. Profiles like a coming Group One winner. Follow her this autumn, starting on Saturday.

Dangers: 2. Hinged went to the paddock a last start winner having mowed down her rivals in the Matriarch out to 2000m. She is more of a miler, middle distance style mare now that she is a six-year-old but she is no stranger to running well fresh. She too is well placed under set weights plus penalties. 3. Scarlet Oak pulled up lame after failing in the Bill Ritchie last campaign. All was clearly not right there given the savage late drift and she ran accordingly. The wash up post race was that she is better on wet tracks. That poses a query on Saturday but she has trialled too well to ignore. Big watch on late betting. Chris Waller is well represented and 4. Firestorm rounds out his trio. Raced her way through the benchmark system to run in an Epsom last time in.

How To Play It: Makarena WIN

Race 6 - 3:25PM TAB SILVER SLIPPER STAKES (1100 METRES)

The knock isn’t on the talent of 3. Wodeton. It’s the set up. He draws 10 of 10 and can’t imagine there will be any desire to fire him out to settle on speed given it’s only a semi final. That has to make him a betting risk given his price, regardless of what he did on debut. No denying that he has produced the best two-year-old performance of the season so far but he’ll need to be every bit as good as the raps suggest for him to overcome Saturday’s obstacles. He also faces a dry track and loses James McDonald.

Dangers: 2. West Of Swindon fell just short when attempting to mow down North England in the Golden Gift. The barrier saw him have to circle the field from back and wide. Could have trialled a little better if being super critical. 10. Bel Merci did everything right when winning the Gimcrack. Maps perfectly here. 8. Gambler’s trials suggest that he can improve.

How To Play It: Wodeton WIN

Race 7 - 4:00PM PARRAMATTA CUP (1900 METRES)

11. Our Anchorage is the percentage play. Whether or not he is the best stayer here is another argument but he looks the best suited. Do concede that he looks short enough in early betting but he tackles this Group Three with three runs under his belt. It’s just a stepping stone for a lot of his rivals who have bigger fish to fry over the autumn carnival. Think Tancreds and Sydney Cups. Our Anchorage looks to catch them on the hop. The six-year-old has gone to a new level this time back. Last start he stalked the speed before swinging into the straight. It was a matter of how far a long way from home. It was a tick over three lengths in the end, producing the best run of his career. He now has to transition into better company but he gets the perfect set up, and drops 6.5kg.

Dangers: 8. Redstone Well isn’t a noted fresh horse but he has never resumed over 1900m. He raced his way back into form last campaign, winning fourth up out to 2400m. He led on that occasion. Looked sharp when winning a recent Warwick Farm trial. Market confidence would be significant. It’s no easy task picking through the open mile handicap at Randwick two weeks ago, looking for the best runs from Chris Waller’s army of stayers. The hidden one was the return of one time NZ Derby winner 3. Asterix. He gave away weight to most, had an interrupted run in the straight and was 45 weeks between runs. A late drift saw him start $101. 10. Kinesiology was only warming up through the line. His sectionals told the story there.

How To Play It: Our Anchorage WIN

Race 8 - 4:35PM KIA ORA HOBARTVILLE STAKES (1400 METRES)

1. Broadsiding’s spring didn’t play out like many thought after he won the Golden Rose first up but it all starts again over the autumn. He returns to the Rosehill 1400m and punters will be hoping for the same result. The margin was only narrow on that occasion, scrambling home to beat his stablemate Traffic Warden, but that doesn’t do the win justice. He picked up sharply from the 400m to sprint quickly late. The speed slackened in the middle stages making it hard for him to get into the race. He potentially faces that same obstacle on Saturday but his class can see him overcome that. The Too Darn Hot colt looked particularly sharp when winning a recent Warwick Farm trial, under a hold. Zac Lloyd jumps aboard in place of the absent James McDonald.

Dangers: 8. Swiftfalcon might prove to be the wildcard runner. He won the Dulcify in dominant fashion last campaign which saw him targeted at the Spring Champion. Perhaps he was too brilliant to get a strong 2000m. He has a turn of foot to overcome any race shape. Has trialled well too. The Eskimo Prince Stakes should prove a logical form reference for this a fortnight ago over 1200m but was left a little underwhelmed by the overall time of that race. 4. Public Attention ran out a length winner over 3. Linebacker with his late strength backed up on the clock. It’s hard to make a case for anything to turn the tables off that win. He should be able to slide across to sit outside of the leader. 2. Mayfair looks that leader. Not sure what happened to him two weeks ago but he’s better than that. The lone filly 11. Aeliana creates interest.

How To Play It: Broadsiding WIN

Race 9 - 5:15PM ASAHI SUPER DRY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

How the Rosehill track is playing towards the backend of the meeting will have a big role to play when it comes to the chances of 3. West Of Africa. He’s likely to settle last. The five-year-old is a backmaker so the barrier doesn’t make a great deal of difference to be fair. What he does have though is a powerful finish. That was on display first up when chasing home smart duo Accredited and Yorkshire. The former won his subsequent start by four lengths while the latter hasn’t been beaten in his subsequent three starts. West Of Africa pulled off a successful hit and run mission second up at the Gold Coast, sweeping home from the tail to run down Charm Stone. Has been back to the trials since to bridge the five weeks between runs.

Dangers: 6. Wategos did enough first up over 1200m at Rosehill in a race that turned into a sprint home. That was behind Willaidow. The runner up Iowna Merc has since franked the form with a second in the Expressway Stakes splitting Magic Time and Joliestar. Wategos has won two from four second up and gets out to a more suitable 1400m. 11. Headley Grange gets a 2.5kg weight swing on Highlights from last start. He was left without any excuses but gets the blinkers on for the first time. 1. Coastwatch broke a run of outs at Sandown, having settled handy. 5. Sibaaq is a capable horse on his day. Would respect any market confidence.

How To Play It: West of Africa WIN

Race 10 - 5:55PM CHANDON HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

7. Time To Boogie was only fair when beaten two lengths at Rosehill last start but he is capable of better. He was a month between runs tackling 1200m and perhaps that found him out. The five-year-old finished sixth behind Grand Impact. In fourth was With Your Blessing and fifth Inhibitions. They have both won their subsequent starts. Like the set up for Time To Boogie on Saturday getting the blinkers first time and coming back to 1100m. Might be the right time to push the button and ride him for speed again. First up he was nosed out on the line by Iowna Merc before he was luckless when favourite in the Canterbury Sprint. Drops 3.5kg slightly up in grade. Well placed to atone for the disappointing run three weeks ago.

Dangers: 5. Shezanalister landed confident bets when winning at Randwick first up. She quickened to run down 10. The Black Cloud from the second half of the field. Her fresh form reads better than her second up form but that is a little deceptive. For instance, second up last time in she raced on the inferior ground closer to the fence. Out to 1100m looks perfect now. The Black Cloud gets a 1kg weight swing on Shezanalister. She fought on bravely in a race where first and third closed from the back. Her well-bred stablemate 11. Cosmonova comes into this a last start winner in lesser grade. She didn’t handle the wet track prior to that. Should hold that form now. She is a month between runs but has trialled well since.

How To Play It: Time To Boogie WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill meeting

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