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By Brad Gray

Have liked what we’ve seen from 5. Armed Forces in his two trials. Chris Waller already has eyes for Queensland with this colt as he also accepted at Eagle Farm in a Listed race, despite still being unraced. Waller, of course, swept the two-year-old Group Ones over the Sydney autumn but ominously for his rival trainers, this is typically when his second wave of gun two-year-olds emerge. Surer than the sun rising, he has a team of late maturing youngsters ready to put their hand up ahead of a JJ Atkins campaign. Armed Forces has shown good natural speed in his heats before taking cover, and hitting the line. The barrier looks perfect giving Joao Moreira the chance to park in the first dozen. You don’t want to be too far away over the Rosehill 1100m.

Dangers: 1. Sovereign Fund has the benefit of race experience and he has already won two races. That saw him jump a $6.50 chance in the 2YO Magic Millions Classic. It didn’t work out for him there, covering ground from the wide draw. He has trialled nicely since then, winning a Randwick heat. He’ll settle in the first couple. 11. Dipsy Doodle ran third in a deep Kensington midweeker before dominating her rivals at Warwick Farm. It simply comes down to how much work she is forced to do to cross. 4. Tumbling would appreciate a frantically run race. He clocked the fastest closing splits of the meeting when winning at Ballarat on debut before boxing on well to run fourth in the Kindergarten Stakes in testing conditions. 3. Thunderlips deserves a mention.

How To Play It: Armed Forces WIN

2. Preemptory was given a perfect ride to win at Randwick last start but he was dominant at the finish. If anything, he was going away again on the line. That was despite being eight weeks between runs. The four-year-old is even better set up out to 1400m with that run under his belt. From the same gate, Hannah Williams, who takes over from Zac Lloyd, will endeavour to give Preemptory the same run in transit. Hold a spot in the early stages before saving him up for his customary big finale. He had been dogged by bad luck prior to last start, which he brings upon himself with his racing style, but few here can match his finish, as we saw last start, when he gets clear running. Can win again in the same grade.

Dangers: 1. Bianco Vilano made up a stack of late ground in the Country Championships Final last start, ploughing through the heavy conditions. He matched motors with I’ve Bean Tryin’ in the concluding stages and we’ve seen that horse come out and win a benchmark race since while the winner Sizzle Minizzle ran fourth in the Hawkesbury Guineas. Has the full 63.5kg to lump. 7. Lisztomania was closing off hard behind Preemptory and meets the winner 2kg better. Has always been a talent but he too is a backmarker. 23. Smooth Esprit wasn’t entitled to run as well as he did in the Country Championships Final given it was a heavy track. He is a dead set dry tracker. 3. Russley Crown will take catching if he can cross while 10. Chase My Crown and 12. Jalmari have knockout claims.

How To Play It: Preemptory WIN

You simply have to overlook the last start performance of 10. Miracle Spin. It was too bad to be true. The four-year-old was beaten a long way from home, eased out of the finish. That was despite being hard in the market. The Matthew Smith-trained gelding was forced to trial after that performance and looks to be back on track, cruising to the line at Warwick Farm. He has been given four weeks to cope with the drop back from 2200m to 1500m. It was over this same track and trip first up that he should have won a Midway, if not for bombing the start. He then went to Queensland and was beaten narrowly out to 1830m. He has started no longer than $6.50 in any three of those starts. Happy to take the punt that he can reproduce his best form in a race with a dozen genuine winning chances.

Dangers: The Four Pillars winner 1. Oakfield Arrow can float in and out of form but she’s well set up to surprise at odds once more. She won a Midway third up last preparation coming off a similar second up run. The only difference this time in is that it was in Group race. 13. Wrathful charged late to run fourth at Warwick Farm first up which sets up his preparation nicely. Trainer Sam Kavanagh is of the opinion that we won’t see the best of the four-year-old until he gets out to a staying trip. 5. Decadent Tale went to the line with Miracle Spin at Eagle Farm three starts ago and has run well twice since then, including a last start win at Newcastle. Last start Midway winner 6. Mayrose only has to hold her form now but she was potentially flattered by the heavy track.

How To Play It: Miracle Spin EACH WAY

18. Anagain’s strike rate warns that she is a mare you need to approach with caution. However, there is enough in her early price to take the leap of faith that she can bring up a second career win that has proven so elusive for her. It’s not due to a lack of talent, that’s for sure. Her racing style just requires a lot to go her way. Like the scenario on Saturday where she can be cuddled up for much of the race from the low draw before being ridden for luck late. If she gets the splits at the right time, her rivals will know she is there as she possesses a brilliant turn of foot. We saw that at her last run before spelling behind Sonora in a handy mares race. She was given an easy time in her one trial ahead of her return.

Dangers: 10. Flag Of Honour is entitled to be favourite on the depth of his three year old form over the spring with fourths behind the likes of Golden Mile, Williamsburg and Communist. Finds James McDonald first up and has trialled well, winning his latest heat at Gosford. 14. Lavish Empire has more upside than any of his rivals with just three starts to his name. He was turned sideways at Warwick Farm first up and it cost him victory. 19. Contemporary was also an eye catcher at Warwick Farm first up over 1100m, suggesting that another win is close. 15. Nipotino has knockout claims.

How To Play It: Anagain EACH WAY

The track condition is significant for 9. Spiranac. The drier the better. The lightly-raced six-year-old hasn’t been given much respect in the early market, posted as the race outsider. Her first up run last preparation was outstanding at Rosehill. That was over 1100m from last in the run and after a 44 week lay off. Her run was equal to that of the winner 3. Fox Fighter on merit. Spiranac ran sixth in the Kosciuszko thereafter but wasn’t suited by the soft track. The Scone-based mare trialled at Muswellbrook to tune up for her return but that was hard to get a line on in the field of three. She put her two rivals to the sword for what it’s worth. This race is wide open and Spiranac’s chances are as good as any in the field.

Dangers: Fox Fighter is a sectional star every time he runs. That was no different first up at Hawkesbury, savaging the line behind Malkovich in near track record time. His Rosehill record reads 7:2-1-3. 4. Conscript is 35 weeks between runs with no official trial but he maps to get a lovely drag into the race via 8. Kipsbay. He doesn’t grab any headlines but his record of 17:7-2-3 says he should never be underestimated. 6. Hellfest should be able to recover a decent position from barrier 1 even with a slow getaway. She too would appreciate a dry track. Like the way she has trialled. Found 5. Dashing Legend hard to assess. She is back in grade but has had a busy preparation.

How To Play It: Spiranac WIN

Keen to play in this race as not convinced that the two early favourites are entitled to be as well found as they are. 10. Solar Apex got too far back in the Muswellbrook Cup first up but he worked to the line to finish midfield. The five-year-old has been much more dynamic on top of the ground in his past couple of preparations. Like the four weeks between runs as the son of Deep Impact has raced well fresh in the past. Throw into the mix of Joao Moreira jumping on and the low gate, and it looks to be a scenario where Solar Apex can figure in the finish. Solar Apex isn’t the quickest into stride but looking at the make up of this race, he still should be able to hold a position. There isn’t a lot of pressure on paper so that looks significant.

Dangers: 9. Shameless Miss can show up first up over 1800m. She was excellent first up last preparation over 1400m taking ground off Superium and Coal Crusher. Has trialled well on two occasions. 3. Quality Time has a fitness advantage over his two aforementioned stablemates. Would’ve liked to have seen a touch more from him in the JRA Plate but perhaps we blame the brutal lead speed. 6. Mystery Shot didn’t see much daylight at Hawkesbury last Saturday. He’s on the seven day back up and can slide forward from the wide gate. 7. Najavo Peak has needed wet tracks to produce his best in the past, while the same can be said for 8. Honeycreeper. 2. Lackeen is better than what he has produced at his last two starts but wouldn’t need to improve.

How To Play It: Solar Apex EACH WAY

Can’t find a lot speed in this race so the wide gate mightn’t be as daunting as it looks on paper for 2. Kayobi. He has offset wide draws in the past with positive rides. The four-year-old jumped a firm favourite in the Provincial Midway Championships Final three weeks ago and despite travelling sweetly in the run, he didn’t let down on the heavy track. He didn’t shirk his task, boxing on to run fourth. Want to give him another chance back on firmer footing. He had won on a heavy track prior to last start but you only had to look across the beaten margins in every race on Day 2 of The Championships as an indication of how testing the track was. Suspect that we’ve still only scraped the surface regarding what this gelding is capable of. He can bounce back.

Dangers: 8. Floating had his chance at Randwick in Midway company last start be he too produced a grinding finish to work home into third without ever really threatening. Out to 1500m and onto a drier track can see him bounce back too. James McDonald sticks. The blinkers go back on 10. Miss Madison and she won second up last preparation, beating Short Shorts off a similar set up. First up, tickover trial, bang. She is dangerous at big odds. 11. Money From The Sky peaked on his run first up, as he was entitled to, given the task he was set in circling the field. Will require a clever ride from Tyler Schiller as he isn’t the type of horse you want to be buried away on. Respect any market confidence for imports 1. Podium Queen and 7. Peshmerga.

How To Play It: Kayobi WIN

10. Sonora maps to get the perfect run. That’s largely why she finds herself on top in a very competitive mares race. The four-year-old was brilliant when winning over 1300m at Randwick last preparation, in what was a near identical race to this. That performance was fourth up. She is first up here but is only nine weeks between runs so should hold some residual fitness. The daughter of So You Think has trialled since then and although beaten near seven lengths, liked how she coasted to the line in a fast heat behind two of the quickest sprinters in Sydney in Malkovich and Spaceboy. Dylan Gibbons shouldn’t have too much trouble camping on the back of the leaders from the barrier. He’ll get his chance to get home over the top of 2. Short Shorts late.

Dangers: Short Shorts was undone by a heavy track at Randwick last start. That saw her fail to replicate her blistering first up win at Kembla Grange. One of her career best performances came at Rosehill last preparation, over 1400m. She went straight to the front and just kept on running. It’ll be catch me if you can from barrier 1. Would’ve been keen on 11. Air To Air if not for the gate. Just don’t know where she finds herself in the run. In a three wide running line is the best possible outcome. She covered ground first up but still won and her trial since was a beauty. 7. Lekvarte has an electric turn of foot on top of the ground and will be closing off hard. 4. Frumos will also be rattling home while 13. Notions looks the best blowout.

How To Play It: Sonora WIN

The market has been quick to dismiss the chances of 3. Military Expert. He had so much against him first up and was entitled to fade out of the finish. He was posted deep throughout and it was on a track closer to heavy than soft. He doesn’t like wet tracks. The better side of soft he can get away with. As for his chances on Saturday, he has drawn to settle in the first couple, taking a trail in behind 1. Coal Crusher, and he has improved sharply second up in his past two campaigns. Second up last preparation he gapped Uncle Bryn and So Si Bon before being narrowly beaten by Gentleman Roy and then running third in the G1 Toorak. Long story short, he is better than a benchmark level horse but wasn’t given the chance to show that first up.

Dangers: 7. Democracy Manifest put a couple of lengths on his rivals first up. The progress that he continues to make suggests that he’ll find himself in Group races shortly too. That has been built into his price here, however. Hard to beat but this is harder. 1. Coal Crusher is the type of horse that needs to be hard fit to win races in the manner he does. It was fourth up last preparation that he found winning form. Would be more confident if this was 1300m. 10. Cotehele had every possible chance first up, peaking on his run late. He can only improve off that and he comfortably beat Democracy Manifest second up last preparation, albeit in race he completely dictated from in front. 4. Wild Planet and 6. Flying Crazy are also winning chances on their best form.

How To Play It: Military Expert WIN

We’ll have nine races to assess how the track is playing to this point so if it’s advantage leaders 11. Huesca will be very hard to beat. If he had mustered quicker last start, he’d have won. The four-year-old just couldn’t get going in the early stages to find the front. That saw him settle in an awkward spot just worse than midfield without any cover. Thought his effort to still only be beaten by a narrow margin was courageous. We are talking midweek form but the same can be said for most of his rivals here and Huesca has only had six starts so he still has the upside to make the transition into better company. All eyes on the start now third up. He shouldn’t have too much trouble clearing the two horses to his immediate inside and has plenty of scope to keep improving.

Dangers: 10. Robusto’s two career wins have been over 1300m. Should get the chance to camp midfield and blend into the race at the right time. He looks dangerous fresh given the set up. 3. Excelladus attacked the line to win over an unsuitable 1100m journey first up at Warwick Farm which flags that he has returned as well as ever. This is more in his sweet spot as far as distance ranges go. The knock is that he does have a history of underperforming second up. 4. Danish Prince is very genuine, handles all track conditions and he loves Rosehill. The barrier looks problematic for 9. Capo Strada while expecting 7. Redwood Shadow and 2. Tony Be to be finishing hard.

How To Play It: Huesca WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill meeting