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Brad Gray's Tips For Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 11:15AM ELITE SAND & SOIL HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

3. Stonecoat comes off a maiden win at Scone but he did it good style from outside of the leader. That was on heavy ground too. He’s well placed to take the step into town.

Dangers: 9. Spiritchaser looks a likely type for John Sargent off her trials. She only trialled on the synthetic over 780m most recently but she beat home Mumbai Jewel and Sweet Ride. Gets in with just 51kg after the claim of Ellen Hennessy too. 6. Mutafiq was too bad to be true on debut when beaten 10 lengths by Contemporary. The brother to Enthaar has been back to the trials since and did it nicely. Respect that Team Hawkes front up again. At least we know 7. Tintookie will handle the conditions. 2. True Crime hasn’t done much wrong in his two starts, defying his starting prices.

How To Play It: Stonecoat WIN

Race 2 - 11:50AM TAB HIGHWAY (1600 METRES)

10. Brainzes caught the eye late at Moruya three weeks ago over the mile on heavy ground. Would be surprised if the four-year-old isn’t somewhere in the finish in this Highway Handicap given the set up. The son of Bullet Train just missed in a blanket finish at Goulburn the start prior. He is now fourth up, draws to settle much closer and has shown recently that the heavy track won’t be an excuse. Senior jockey Kody Nestor takes over too. Brainzes is no stranger to Highway company having tackled one at the backend of last campaign over 1800m where he was beaten three lengths by Highlights. Suspect he is going even better this time back and last start he should have gone straight past Stratum Pride, who has won since.

Dangers: 11. Running Bear is the percentage play. She’s a very fit mare, rolls forward to make her own luck and hasn’t finished outside of the top two in her three most recent runs, two of those being in Highway company. It’s an easy case to make that she’ll be in the finish again. Just has to run a strong mile out. 3. Zadig is also a proven performer in this company. He got complete control in front to win at Randwick six weeks ago and won’t get that here. 15. Zarafah could sneak into the minors at big odds. The barrier doesn’t help but she is a very capable wet tracker and her close up third to Flower Moon and Eberlee first up reads well for this. 8. Lord Desanimaux and rates a mention.

How To Play It: Brainzes EACH WAY

Race 3 - 12:25PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

3. Elusive Jewel is beautifully placed back to BM72 Midway company. The four-year-old jumped $3.80 second favourite in a Listed race in Queensland last start. She was stretched out to a staying trip in an attempt to earn some black type, running fourth, probably failing to see out the journey. Couple that with the dry track whereas she had been doing all of her racing prior to that in Sydney on wet tracks. Go back to start two of the preparation and she ran second to Quintello at Randwick on a Heavy 10 over 1400m. She’s held that form all through her campaign around horses that are superior to anything she faces in this. The only query is that she has been up for a while now but if she holds her form, she just about wins.

Dangers: 10. Sprout Wings loves heavy tracks and beat Yggdrasil two starts back. She has returned particularly well this preparation. Has to cope with a drop back from 1900m to the mile but she is four and half weeks between runs, with a tickover trial at Hawkesbury keeping her up to the mark. 5. Contributingfactor comes through a race that has subsequently produced six winners. The blinkers go on for the first time and he was a heavy track winner prior to that. Inclined to take on the form through the Midway at Randwick two weeks ago where there was 2.5 lengths from first to fifth. Hard to deny the winner there, however, 8. Monfelicity given she was first up and came from behind to beat them fair and square.

How To Play It: Elusive Jewel WIN

Race 4 - 1:00PM ASX REFINITIV CHARITY JULY SPRINT (1100 METRES)

3. Enchanted Heart sets up well back to 1100m on a heavy track after contesting the Group One Tastt’s Tiara four weeks ago at Eagle Farm over 1400m. That was on a good track too. The rising six-year-old finished second last and was sent around a $101 chance but she was only beaten seven lengths by Startantes and Snapdancer, which reads well for this in the context of what her main dangers offer up as far as recent form goes. Easy Single, for example, comes off a last start third in BM78 company. Enchanted Heart can drift in and out of form and it’s been over a year since she last won so it’s not a gamble that doesn’t come without risks but she sets up to run up to her best and that’s good enough to win this.

Dangers: 1. Prime Candidate couldn’t muster the speed to cross in the Ramornie and travelled deep throughout. Forgive him that. Would be much more confident about his chances on a firmer track, however. Respect that he is the class runner here. 2. Rocketing By has some wet form but is 40 weeks between runs. He’s a capable sprinter and like the way he has trialled ahead of his return. 5. Easy Single drops 5.5kg from last start, up in grade. 8. Centro Storico also plummets in weight, carrying just 49kg after the claim of Ellen Hennessy. She does come off a Midway third at BM72 level but might have been half a run short there second up out to 1200m. Could sneak into the placings.

How To Play It: Enchanted Heart WIN

Race 5 - 1:35PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (2400 METRES)

Not sure what has suddenly clicked for 6. Marakopa but have to trust that he is going to continue to hold his career best form. He has been freshened for four weeks after last running second to Shameless Miss in the Stayers Cup at Randwick out to 2600m. His only previous run at Randwick was a six length romp over this same trip, leaving Bonny Ezra and Our Candidate in his wake. The luxury of light weights at this level is now gone but he does come back to BM78 company. Wedged in between those two aforementioned runs was a fifth in the Brisbane Cup out to two miles at Group Two level. That gives him a terrific grounding for a slogging 2400m event where stamina, and ability to handle the track, are everything. Would be surprised if he missed each way.

Dangers: Beware the improving stayer that charges through the grades and 8. The Milkybar Kid potentially fits that mould having won three on the bounce. Not willing to dive into even money just yet given this is by far his stiffest test to date. 7. Yggdrasil was racing out of her grade last start at Rosehill but she handled the taxing heavy conditions best to hold off 3. Oceanic Flash. The mare deserves plenty of respect on that basis alone - the prospect of what Randwick will throw up come Saturday holds absolutely no fears. 2. Philipsburg is a curious prospect out to this staying trip for the first time but it’s worth a try given how he finished off at the end of 1800m last start.

How To Play It: Marakopa EACH WAY

Race 6 - 2:10PM TPG HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

3. Kalino always travelled like the winner at Randwick last start, getting out to the mile for the first time. That was four weeks ago now but it was encouraging to see the rising four-year-old deliver on the promise he has always teased. He was well beaten first up on a heavy track but reluctant to use that as too much of a guide given that not a lot went right. He then held his own in a race that has produced six subsequent winners when fifth behind Jojo Was A Man. A bottomless heavy 10 presents a new challenge for the son of Pierro but if Chris Waller is happy to run him, that’s enough to be confident about his chances of handling the going. James McDonald is booked too.

Dangers: 1. Per Inaway shouldn’t have any trouble scooting through whatever Randwick throws up on Saturday. The filly chased home Cross Talk last start on heavy ground over 1400m. She sets up well back to her own age and out to 1500m fourth up. Shouldn’t have any excuses. 4. Deep Romance has produced her best this preparation when she has been allowed to balance up in the second half of the field and find the line. Steps out beyond 1300m for the first time but she ran right through the line last start. 11. Flying Step is proven in the going.

How To Play It: Kalino WIN

Race 7 - 2:45PM ATC THANK YOU STABLE STAFF HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

2. Waihaha Falls has come back in scintillating form. The lightly-raced four-year-old gave his rivals a touch up first up at Randwick before reappearing over the same track and trip four weeks later where he won by an even bigger margin. His combined winning margin has been just shy of eight lengths. The son of Sacred Falls rises 4kg from that but he’s entitled to be a $1.50 favourite. He is now two from two on heavy tracks too, clearly taking after his old man who loved the mud. Creeping out in trip to 1300m looks to suit now and if he wins by a similar margin again here, trainer John O’Shea is entitled to start looking at better races with the spring carnival just around the corner.

Dangers: 3. Titanium Power was taken on in front two weeks ago and boxed on bravely with 62.5kg to run a distant second to Cross Talk. Gets some weight relief and should find the front uncontested here. He’s always a tough nut to crack. 7. Niffler was poor by her very consistent standards last start at Randwick out to 1800m. It was the first time in her 10 start career that she didn’t finish in the top three. She has been freshened since with four weeks between runs and drops back to 1300m. 1. Poetic Charmer has six lengths to turn around on Waihaha Falls but he strips fitter second up and gets a 4kg swing. He should be able to east into that margin. 4. Arctic Thunder is undefeated fresh.

How To Play It: Waihaha Falls WIN

Race 8 - 3:25PM ATC FOUNDATION WINTER CHALLENGE (1500 METRES)

12. Jojo Was A Man is flying this preparation. He has won three from five this preparation and comes off a narrow defeat to Taksu last start in the Listed Winter Stakes. Despite the handicappers giving him a little hike at the ratings, the four-year-old still gets in on the 53kg minimum. The extra journey is perfect now and we know that the heavy track won’t be an excuse. The other huge factor in his favour, besides from fitness, his wet track prowess and form, is the lack of speed in the race on paper. It’s the cherry on top. Imagine that his regular Reece Jones will look to dominate the race from the first couple. If he doesn’t lead, he likely settles outside of the leader. There is too much in his favour to tip against him.

Dangers: 14. Snippy Fox looks to be the other big beneficiary from the lack of speed. The mare was no match for Waihaha Falls last start but there is no shame in that. It’s an opportunistic throw at the stumps to land some black type but she sets up to get into the money as she loves heavy ground too. What do we do with 1. Gold Trip? A Group One horse. However, he has spent over a year on the sidelines, strikes a testing track first up with 61kg and find a race that could turn into a sprint home. Too classy to dismiss but hard to have with any confidence. 9. Oscar Zulu drops 4kg from the Winter Challenge while expecting 7. Casino Kid to measure up.

How To Play It: Jojo Was A Man WIN

Race 9 - 4:05PM CITY TATTERSALLS GROUP HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

1. Conscript has built an imposing record of 15:6-2-3 and he added to that win tally at Randwick last start over the 1100m, leading all of the way. He is a sprinter that has just gradually raised the bar each preparation after his first two wins came in country company. This time back he has proven himself a genuine Saturday class horse. He only carries 0.5kg more than last start in this same grade, like the step out to 1200m now and he’s now two from two on heavy tracks. Outside of Faretti, there doesn’t look to be a lot of other speed engaged so he can roll across into another controlling position. Just has to hold his form to win again.

Dangers: 8. Monte Ditto appears to be relishing the heavy tracks now he has a good fitness base. He scored a determined win in Midway company at Rosehill two back before just missing in an identical race two weeks later. That ability to plough through the conditions will see him run well again. Cranbourne-based trainer Richard Laming is obviously storm chasing with 3. Nerone given his record on heavy tracks (4:3-0-1). He ran right through the line at the end of 1400m just 10 days ago to score at the Melbourne midweeks. 6. Faretti was nailed in the final stride at Swan Hill first up. That was six weeks ago now but like the way he has trialled since in front of Maotai. Barrier 1 looks tricky for 9. Jal Lei.

How To Play It: Conscript WIN

Race 10 - 4:40PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

It was hard to miss the return of 9. Sunrise Ruby at Randwick two weeks ago. That looks the obvious form reference for this race. The Mitch Beer-trained mare balanced up in the second half of the field but attacked the line to run second to Lady Brook. Out to 1200m second up on another heavy track, she can turn the tables. The barrier might look problematic on paper as far as how big of a start she’ll be forced to give away but come the last at Randwick on Saturday, it’s more likely than not that wider draws will be an advantage. It’s an educated guess, but expecting the winners to come from wider and wider on the track as the meeting goes on. Sunrise Ruby is 5:3-2-0 on heavy tracks, all four of her career wins have come over this trip and she wasn’t beaten all that far in a Kosciuszko last preparation.

Dangers: 8. Marchioness finished eighth in that same race but that doesn’t do the run justice. The former Kiwi fired up in the early stages which saw Jay Ford drag her back to second last before finding herself being a wall of horses in the straight. She was 35 weeks between runs and is better placed out to 1200m. 4. Lady Brook has obvious claims again while 13. Twice As Special continues to race well. She strikes another suitable heavy track and gets in very light after the 3kg claim. Respect 7. Brazen Song.

How To Play It: Sunrise Ruby WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting

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