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Brad Gray's Tips For Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 11:00AM TAB HIGHWAY PLATE (1500 METRES)

Unusually, there is a lack of obvious pressure in this week’s Highway Handicap so looking for a horse that can sit handy. 7. Angelical ticks that box. The three-year-old filly trained by Paul Messara, is also a lightly-raced improver with just four starts to her name. She began her career all guns blazing winning her first three starts before heading for a spell. The daughter of Real Impact resumed at Muswellbrook three weeks ago over 1280m and thought she did an big job to finish as close as she did to her fitter stablemate Ceasefire. She carried 61kg, was shuffled back in the run and never looked comfortable on the Heavy 10 surface yet kept chasing a lost cause. Chad Schofield draws low, which looks significant given the shape of this race. Jumps straight out to 1500m, but won second up out to the mile last campaign.

Dangers: It’s all suddenly clicked for 12. Bootscooter. After rounding up his rivals to win his maiden at Scone over 1300m, he was sent around an odds on favourite at Newcastle in Class 1 company and was always in control. This is another step again but the timing is right. 3. Tags has so much raw talent. We know his kryptonite, however. It’s missing the start. He wasn’t too bad first up at Hawkesbury but he still jumped away on the backfoot which probably cost him winning. 5. Zadig doesn’t have the upside of those already mentioned but he has proven to be a consistent Highway performer, looks better suited back out to 1500m and can race in the first couple. 2. Steplee is chasing back-to-back Highways but will likely settle out the back again.

How To Play It: Angelical EACH WAY

Race 2 - 11:35AM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

5. Midnight In Tokyo is still far from the finished article as she has a tendency to race keenly in the run, but she brings the strongest form line. And clearly. The filly, based in Queensland with Kacy Fogden, won on debut at the Sunshine Coast in good style having sat outside of the leader before resuming her second campaign in the G3 Ken Russell Memorial Classic at the Gold Coast, running the unbeaten Nettuno to a narrow margin where the subsequent Sires’ Produce winner Sheeza Belter ran third. Rubusto ran fourth and the subsequent Bill Carter Stakes winner Stroll finished sixth. The barrier looks a touch sticky for Kathy O’Hara to find some cover so tactics will be crucial but Fogden has found a perfect second up target.

Dangers: 9. Emilia Romagna got off the mark at Goulburn first up, scoring a dominant win. The Bjorn Baker-trained filly settled midfield and once she hooked to the outside the race was all over. She has obviously returned a much better filly in this time back, living up to her big pedigree being by Pierro out of G1 winner Griante. Now she has won, she might go right on with it. 1. Vegas Raider scored a visually brilliant win at Scone on debut, getting there in the final stride. The form through that race hasn’t stacked up at all since. Has trialled brilliantly since, however. We’ll find out where he sits after this. 2. Forecaster resumed as a gelding at Canterbury first up and won well. We just have to weigh up how flattered he may have been by the bottomless heavy track.

How To Play it: Midnight In Tokyo WIN

Race 3 - 12:10PM 50 YEAR AND LIFE MEMBERS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

3. Tamerlane looks beautifully placed to resume a winner for James Cummings and Godolphin. The four-year-old smoked to the line first up last preparation over 1200m at Rosehill, running El Buena to a narrow margin, running straight past Queen Bellissimo late, and giving her 3kg. He didn’t go on to convert that great return into a win but it wasn’t through any fault of his own. A wide draw proved costly second up before he bumped into the likes of Fashchanel, Rule Of Law and War Eternal. Horses that all went on to prove competitive at Group level. The other huge positive is where he likely finds himself in the run. There is very little speed here and Josh Parr will be close enough to get his chance to grab Queen Bellissimo late again.

Dangers: Terrified of 10. Le Vizir. We see the gelded version for the first time on Saturday and he was a big winner first up over 1200m last preparation putting 3.5L on his rivals before his form tapered off. He has trialled well in open company and maps nicely himself. 2. Queen Bellissimo obviously has claims being the only obvious leader and she strikes this third up. She gets in well after the claim of Dylan Gibbons, the 1200m suits better now, as does a firmer track. She shouldn’t have any excuses. The 1200m is on the sharp side for 4. Waihaha Falls but he’s a lightly raced galloper still on the up. Wary of 1. Rainbow Connection but he might need one more run after his condition blew out first up off a year layoff.

How To Play It: Tamerlane WIN

Race 4 - 12:45PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

The penny has dropped for 4. Cruel Summer this preparation having been gelded. The son of Paul Perry’s superstar sprinter Choisir resumed at Newcastle back in early April and scouted wide to beat Simpkin where there was six lengths back to third. He then transferred that form to the midweeks at Canterbury, putting four lengths on what looked a progressive field of three-year-olds. What we have to consider is that both of those wins were on tracks rated Heavy 10s so how will he cope back onto a firmer surface? His maiden win at Newcastle came on a good track and he put 4.5 lengths on handy mare Carartie. Jockey Ashley Morgan should be able to use the gate to park up in the first half dozen. Gets his chance.

Dangers: 6. Dalaalaat has been desperate for a dry track. It’s finally arrived. The last time we saw him at the races he didn’t have much luck when a fast-finishing fourth behind Showtime Lady on a soft track at Gosford. 9. Moon Reader is chasing three straight wins having scored at the provincials first up before nosing out Kanazawa at Randwick. That reads well for this and she maps to get a similar cosy run, tucked in behind the speed. 13. Damaged paraded sensationally ahead of last start and ran right up to his looks, running on into second behind Saquon.

How To Play It: Cruel Summer WIN

Race 5 - 1:20PM DRINKWISE MILE (1600 METRES)

4. Ita has been up a while this preparation but she continues to hold her form. She backs up seven days after being an unlucky placegetter at Rosehill. The pace slackened in the middle stages setting up a messy finish and she was pocketed in behind a wall of runners. When she finally saw daylight, it was too late. She speared to the line to clock the fastest last 200m split of the meeting but it was in vein. Bjorn Baker has found a perfect race for her to atone for that, creeping back out to the mile. The four-year-old mare beat a couple of her main rivals at the Kensington track just two starts ago in Niffler and Finepoint. Ita actually meets 2kg better off for beating her given Niffler has won herself since.

Dangers: In the defence of 3. Niffler, she was only first up in that clash with Ita so obviously had improvement to come. As evidenced by the way she won herself at Rosehill seven days ago, where she produced a career best. She goes up slightly in grade and at the weights but she looks even better suited out to the mile third up. She races handy, is building a great record and has clearly returned better again. 6. Nothinsweetaboutme was a big winner first up at Randwick on a heavy track over 1400m giving away 4.5kg and race fitness to the runner up. She too sets up even better second up out to 1600m on a drier track. 8. Elusive Jewel is a couple of nostrils away from being three from four this preparation. That’s no knock on 7. Finepoint either!

How To Play It: Ita EACH WAY

Race 6 - 1:55PM CELEBRATION OF WOMEN IN RACING HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

4. Hulk is a deadly 1000m horse, his record suggests that. He is one of the most maligned benchmark level gallopers in Sydney due to his ability of finding trouble in the run but he gets a perfect set up on Saturday. Do we give him another chance? I say, with some reservation, yes. He has three wins from 33 starts now, with 16 minor placings! He ran out of room first up behind Athelric before he wasn’t suited by the slow tempo and heavy track two weeks ago at Randwick. In his last three runs over 1000m, he blew his rivals away at Kembla Grange before running narrow seconds to Malkovich and Andermatt. A dry track, his pet trip, plenty of speed and no standout rivals. Surely…

Dangers: 9. Siege has now won three of her four starts, and she was luckless in the defeat. She can’t have done much more than that to launch her career. The lightly-raced four-year-old has obviously had her niggles otherwise we’d have seen more of her but Godolphin’s perseverance perhaps tells us everything we need to know about her talent. She has been kept fresh since winning at Gosford five weeks ago. 5. Washington Towers finds himself in career best form having won four of his five starts this preparation – and he has been doing it with raw speed. It just comes down to how much pressure he cops early. 1. Easy Single maintained his good fresh record with a first up win at Flemington beating a subsequent winner. That was in BM84 company too.

How To Play It: Hulk EACH WAY

Race 7 - 2:30PM FURPHY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

Everything was against 10. Mr Dependable first up. He was beaten 13 lengths so it’ll need to be a huge form turnaround but there is a case to be made that he can. Firstly, he isn’t a heavy tracker. He never has been and never will be. It just simply come down to the stable needing to get his campaign under way. He’d spent a year on the sidelines prior to that run too. Throw into the mix that he always improves with the run, has never won below 1500m and absorbed plenty of early pressure early with four horses making an early play for the front. Second up his form reads 4:3-1-0 and he gets back onto firmer ground. He’ll roll forward and look to control this race from the outset with just 52kg on his back.

Dangers: 8. Wairere Falls looks perfectly set up. He was six weeks between runs when a luckless seventh at Caulfield before getting a long way back from a wide draw last start at Flemington. His run peaked the last 100. Draws to get every chance here, gets in light and he has fired at Randwick in the past. His stablemate 4. Oscar Zulu also sets up nicely. He hasn’t had much room in either of his two runs back. Gets straight out the mile third up and maps well himself. 11. Night Of Power wasn’t suited by the slow tempo last Saturday behind Mach Schnell, yet still ran well in defeat clocking one of the fastest 200m splits across the meeting. Up in grade but plummets in weight, dropping 8.5kg. Can make cases for 5. Fender and track specialist 1. Art Cadeau too.

How To Play it: Mr Dependable EACH WAY

Race 8 - 3:05PM BOB CHARLEY AO STAKES (1100 METRES)

Kris Lees’ sprinter 5. The Bopper travelled wide throughout at Scone first up and never looked comfortable. The wet track was also blamed for his disappointing performance. There is a plenty of evidence more recently to suggest that the four-year-old is much more effective on top of the ground. Two of his best wins have come at Randwick and the drying track could see him improve sharply. It was only back in January that the son of Nicconi was matching motors with the flying Rule Of Law. That was before the Heavy track got him at Randwick where he started $3.20 against the likes of Gravina and Taksu. Respect his SP profile all through his career. Gets his chance to bounce back, particularly that he’ll likely find himself one-out-one-back in the run.

Dangers: Fresh is best for 2. Mr Mosaic. He looked to have the Ortensia Stakes all sewn up four weeks ago only for Vulpine to grab him on the post. That looks a strong reference for this and he showed there that he doesn’t have to lead, even though in the past he has been dynamic from in front. 6. Dragonstone was excellent down the straight last Saturday with 58.5kg. He has been racing consistently all campaign and his form around the likes of Andermatt and Athelric read well. 4. Surreal Step atoned for a couple of luckless efforts at Randwick last start, scoring a determined win. His stablemate 11. Authentic Jewel is ripe for an aggressive front-running ride which could spark sharp improvement.

How To Play It: The Bopper WIN

Race 9 - 3:40PM GRAINSHAKER VODKA HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

4. Lackeen is a dangerous fresh horse. He actually beat 1. Frankie Pinot first up last preparation and at level weights, so he meets him 3kg better off. Love the way the Godolphin import has trialled ahead of his return too. He’s ready to go first up. The knocks are obvious, however. Would be a lot more confident over 1400m as opposed to 1300m and that is compounded further by the wide draw. The five-year-old tends to drift back over the shorter trips anyway and is saved for the last crack at his rivals but that extra couple of lengths he will be forced to give away at the start could prove the difference. We’ll leave that in the capable hands of Josh Parr. Still want to be with him despite the obstacles.

Dangers: There is no such concern with 8. Much Much Better. He’ll settle at the top end of the field and make his own luck. He fought out the finish with Surreal Step last start dropping back from 1300m to 1100m, with Andermatt running third. He races well at Randwick and looks even better placed on a firmer surface. 2. True Detective doesn’t win out of turn now that he has found his level but he is rarely far away. Comes here off a second to Art Cadeau two weeks ago, maps nicely, strikes this third up and 1300m is about his sweet spot. 1. Frankie Pinot came from last to run Lombardo to two lengths in the G1 Goodwood three weeks ago. The class runner in the field and is well placed given his 98 benchmark rating.

How To Play It: Lackeen WIN

Race 10 - 4:20PM CHANDON HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

4. Blesk possesses a finish none of these can match, it’s just his get-back style that sees him beaten more often that not. It’s always risk vs reward with Blesk but there is enough in the early price to take the gamble. Perhaps the five-year-old can park up a touch closer from barrier 1. Perhaps that’s just wishful thinking. John O’Shea does look to have the son of Savabeel ready to fire first up with three trials under his belt and kicking of over 1400m. In the past he has launched his campaigns over the shorter sprint trips. For a horse with his style, he was remarkably consistent last preparation, finishing top three in all six runs and fresh last preparation he just missed over 1250m to Much Much Better. Hard to hold out with the breaks.

Dangers: Don’t be too quick to dismiss 16. Kalino. He is still a work in progress but convinced that the talent is there. He does a lot wrong in that he tends to half miss the start and races keenly and despite resuming as a gelding first up, those kinks were still there. The drier track suits and the run might knock some freshness out of him. 7. Cross Talk has obvious claims. The price is the knock stepping into Saturday company for the first time and he has only ever raced on heavy tracks. His first up win was much better than it reads on paper, however, having to absorb early pressure. 15. Kanazawa is a coming winner after a terrific return. The query is where he gets to from the gate. 10. Marnix is a smokey back on top of the ground.

How To Pay It: Blesk WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting

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