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Brad Gray's Tips For Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 11:30AM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

2. Street Power didn’t quite see out 1400m with Brett Cavanough giving the four-year-old his chance in the Country Championships series. He settled midfield first up in the Tamworth qualifier on a deteriorating track and never got into the race before he set a genuine speed in the Scone Wild Card and faded. He gave a kick there, however, and was still in front for much of the straight. The two horses that settled alongside him in the run were beaten out of sight and the winner broke the track record. That was four weeks ago and it was off a month freshen that he won a Highway last campaign, where he comfortably beat Shelby Sixtysix. Prior to that he ran second in a Highway behind Ten Bells where not a lot went right. He sets up beautifully to bounce back in the most suitable race he has contested this time back.

Dangers: 4. Optimo was beaten by the barrier in a Highway Handicap back in December before he was sent for a spell, and that’s the worry here again. Just how big of a start he’ll be forced to give away. His recent trial suggests that he has returned just as well. 1. Mr Hussill comes through the same two races as Street Power. He never threatened in either with the 1400m trip perhaps stretching his brilliance too. He too looks well placed back to 1200m in Class 3 company. 14. Sparring made a huge impression on debut at Albury before holding his own in two BM64 races in Melbourne. Tackles 1200m for the first time and he has drawn right off the track. 17. Cracking Mo chases three straight and will settle handy.

How To Play It: Street Power EACH WAY

Race 2 - 12:05PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Divine Breath could have done a touch more late first up in a Provincial Midway qualifier at Newcastle but perhaps the heavy track brought her undone fitness wise. Regardless, happy to forgive her that. She was only beaten 4.5 lengths, running fifth. The four-year-old ran in two Midways last campaign, running second to Different Strokes in one of those and winning the other comfortably. The latter with Brock Ryan in the saddle, and he jumps back on Saturday. A number of her key rivals here come through the same Newcastle heat but the soft draw gives her the advantage of getting the right run throughout. It all started to click for this Theresa Bateup-trained mare last preparation and with the run under her belt, she’s a big enough price to take the gamble that she can find that form again.

Dangers: 2. Different Strokes would be on top if not for the horrible draw. His first up run was much better than it reads on paper after being forced back from another wide draw. He marched through the grades last campaign. 11. Contributingfactor sets up well third up having found the line strongly behind Pippali last start at Newcastle. The knock is that he too maps to be giving away a big head start. 15. Mahagoni rattled home in a Midway four weeks ago in his first Australian run. If he can build on that, another win looks close. 4. French Bonnet didn’t fire a shot first up but has improved sharply in the past second up and could do the same in this. 6. Strawb can only improve off her encouraging return while 5. So Sneeky’s run were exactly that last preparation. Knockout hope.

How To Play It: Divine Breath EACH WAY

Race 3 - 12:40PM ACY SECURITIES FRANK PACKER PLATE (2000 METRES)

4. Straight Arron gapped his rivals at Randwick over the mile last start despite coming from last in a slowly run race. He clocked the fastest last 200m split across the meeting. He is a three-year-old still with huge upside given it was just his third start and on the strength of finish, the 2000m looks to pose no threat of slowing him up. The knock, and it is a significant one, is where he again finds himself from the barrier. This isn’t a field of eight where he can keep the leaders in sight. He could be spotting them six lengths this time and with the rail out at Randwick, and given how hard it was to make ground last Saturday, it doesn’t look a simple put in, take out at the even money quote. It's worth noting that Chris Waller has won this race in three of it’s past four runnings.

Dangers: Love the way 13. Verona poked home late behind Diamil in her first Australian run over the mile. The former Kiwi-trained filly was eight weeks between runs there too. Jumps straight out to 2000m and this doesn’t look beyond her. 3. Raging Bull was well held by the likes of Anamoe and Converge first and second up but he certainly wasn’t disgraced. Last start he ran in the Derby and worked home steadily from back in the field. He should settle closer from the better draw here and this is the most winnable race he has contested this preparation. 5. Jalmari was well held by Straight Arron last start but he has obvious place claims again on the back of two career best runs. 1. War Eternal looks suited coming back a couple of grades while 10. Lukey Luke has been winning well in easier class.

How To Play It: Straight Arron WIN, Quinella 4,13

Race 4 - 1:15PM MOËT & CHANDON CHAMPAGNE STAKES (1600 METRES)

If this year’s Champagne Stakes was run 10 times, 5. Fireburn’s odds of $1.50 suggests that she’d win just shy of seven times. That’s fair. It’s not unreasonable to suggest she’d more likely win eight or nine. The second favourite here She’s Extreme gave a sight in the Sires’ to be beaten 1.4L by Fireburn. That was despite Fireburn giving her a six length head start turning for home in a slowly run race. She’s Extreme has the tactical advantage again on Saturday but the small field means Fireburn parks up only two or three lengths off the lead. Sectionally, Fireburn’s last 600m in the Sire’s was 3.5 lengths quicker than the next best while her last 200m split of 11.99s was the third quickest across the entire meeting. The mile won’t pull her up. Impossible to knock.

Dangers: Despite having won just one of her five starts, 6. She’s Extreme is one of the best two-year-olds in the country. It’s just that she’s run into the number one seed on three occasions now and the result has been the same. Anthony Cummings and Tommy Berry won’t be conceding defeat. They’ll hatch a plan to beat the odds on favourite. She’s Extreme’s dam won over 2000m so she profiles to also relish 1600m. 3. Let’srollthedice charged home into third in the Sires’ with only the winner clocking faster closing splits. Would be surprised to see him turn the tables on Fireburn but She’s Extreme? Potentially. 2. Williamsburg has won three of his past four starts, the latest two coming on Heavy 10s. Would need to improve again in this grade.

How To Play It: Fireburn WIN

Race 5 - 1:50PM MOSTYNCOPPER JAMES H. B CARR STAKES (1400 METRES)

2. Espiona hasn’t yet lived up to the hype that surrounded her ahead of the autumn but she comes back several levels in class for this and that should see her return to the winners’ stall. She was touched off by Fangirl first up as the $1.55 favourite before running on into third on a Heavy 10 in the G1 Surround. That saw her jump a very well backed $3.10 pop in the G1 Coolmore against the older mares. She fluffed the start and settled in an impossible position, forcing Jay Ford to angle to the middle of the track away from the fence. She ran 8th but there was more merit to the run than the form guide implies. Is there enough evidence to suggest that she simply doesn’t handle heavy tracks? A repeat of any of her three runs this campaign would still be good enough to win this. She perhaps just needs a shot of confidence and she’s beautifully placed in this to get it.

Dangers: There was only a length between 5. Party For One, 6. Comrade Rosa and 7. Dalchini in the PJ Bell Stakes and despite finishing the furthest back of that trio, there was plenty of merit to the run of Dalchini. She found herself a long way back in a slowly run 1200m and was held up on a number of occasions yet her last 600m split was the third quickest across the entire meeting. Party For One and Comrade Rosa were both only second up there so there is potentially more improvement to come from that pair. They both look well placed out to 1400m now. 1. Festival Dancer really clicked into gear at the backend of last preparation, winning four straight which included giving War Eternal a touch up in the Spring Stakes at Newcastle. Just has a tricky map to overcome. 8. Banana Queen is a talent but didn’t handle the wet track first up.

How To Play It: Espiona WIN

Race 6 - 2:25PM TAB HALL MARK STAKES (1200 METRES)

Where is the speed in this race outside of 3. Big Parade? There isn’t any! The five-year-old looks to get complete control. He certainly didn’t get that first up in the G1 Galaxy four weeks ago yet despite that he only went down narrowly, giving Shelby Sixtysix 5kg and a big fitness advantage. Trainer Mark Newnham bypassed the TJ Smith Stakes in preference of this before heading north to Queensland. The sprinter’s form at the backend of last preparation suggested that he was capable of taking the next step to match it with the country’s best sprinters. He won the Sydney Stakes before finishing fourth in the Classique Legend beaten near four lengths by Eduardo and Lost And Running, where he ran below his best. He can do that from time to time but if he runs up to his peak, and with the likely race shape, they won’t catch him.

Dangers: If it’s not Big Parade, it could be anything. Several runners that have accepted don’t like wet tracks so that narrows the chances down. 1. Kementari is 2-0 head to head with Big Parade in their past clashes but he won first up last campaign and has trialled sweetly ahead of another preparation. His stablemate 4. Roheryn blotted his perfect fresh record last preparation but through no fault of his own. The race was a sprint home and he never saw daylight. 2. Gem Song flagged that he had returned really well with a dominant win in the Star Kingdom first up and he at least possesses some tactical speed to be put into the race. 8. Count De Rupee has only beaten one runner home in his two starts this time back but both were in Group Ones.

How To Play It: 3. Big Parade WIN

Race 7 - 3:10PM SHARP EXTENSIVE IT JRA PLATE (2000 METRES)

Will 1. Icebath run a strong 2000m? That’s the gamble. Every indication is that she will. The five-year-old mare was a well beaten third in the Queen Of The Turf last Saturday but it proved hard to make ground throughout the meeting and her sectionals home were great. It was a brilliant run all considered. She backs up for the third week in a row but given how effective she has been on the back up in the past, it’s unlikely to bother her. She thrives on racing. At her sixth run last preparation she was nosed out in a G1 Cantala. Her task has been made harder by the 59kg impost, even after the mares allowance, giving weight away to some pretty handy gallopers. You’d like to think that she can use the draw to settle closer now she’s out in trip too.

Dangers: If Icebath doesn’t get the trip, 2. Polly Grey will be there ready to pounce. The grey bounced back from a disappointing effort in the G1 Coolmore to run Mount Popa to a narrow margin on a very heavy track at Rosehill last start and there’s a case to be made that she’d have won if not for being held up slightly. Mount Popa thereafter franked that form line by running third in the Queen Elizabeth. 7. Marroni stuck to his guns behind Polly Grey, running third, albeit beaten two lengths at the finish. 8. Maximal hasn’t delivered on his promise this preparation but he drops back from two WFA races and has genuine excuses in both. 5. Kukeracha got home well in the Doncaster Prelude.

How To Play It: Icebath WIN

Race 8 - 3:50PM SCHWEPPES ALL AGED STAKES (1400 METRES)

Three-year-olds have enjoyed plenty of success in this race recently and 14. In The Congo looks well placed to add to the tally. Trapeze Artist was the latest in 2018 while prior to that it was English, All Too Hard and Atlantic Jewel. In The Congo has been beaten at his two starts this preparation but there has been merit to both performances. First up he lumped 56kg in the Galaxy and went down narrowly before Mazu proved too sharp in last Saturday’s Arrowfield in a race that turned into a sprint home due to the small field. He’ll be much better suited to a high pressure WFA race over 1400m where is becomes a test of sustained speed, as opposed to a 400m dash. He presents a very fit horse now on the seven day turnaround third up and will bounce out to make his own luck.

Dangers: 2. Cascadian is as talented as any horse in this field. He has beaten most of them before. He is just at the mercy of the tempo up front and getting luck at the right time. He’ll definitely be relying on that from barrier 1. He was unlucky not to win this race 12 months ago after winning the Doncaster. He didn’t win the Doncaster this year but his ninth was excellent. Of 1. Mo’unga’s five career wins, four have come first or second up. He races so well on the fresh side and a couple of months off since the Futurity Stakes, when second to 10. Sierra Sue, who is not hopeless here either, should see him zip home at the end of 1400m. The mile found 8. Forbidden Love out in the Doncaster. She’s better placed back to 1400m but the barrier could see her burn plenty of early petrol to get across. Have plenty of respect for 9. Tofane too.

How To Play It: In The Congo WIN

Race 9 - 4:30PM SILVERDALE FARM HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

Not sure how many times we’ll get to back 16. Huetor in benchmark company but this could be the last time. The French import hit the ground running for Peter and Paul Snowden winning his first three starts in Australia. None of those races were run at a genuine tempo either so the margins were flattering to his rivals, if anything. Just wait until he finds himself in a race with speed on and he should get that here with Ashman spearing across from the wide draw. He resumed over the mile last preparation so the 1400m is the query but the likely tempo and tackling it fresh gives him the chance to overcome the distance knock. The five-year-old has trialled twice ahead of his return and looked great. With a Doomben Cup on the horizon, he’ll want to give this a shake.

Dangers: 5. Our Playboy has the advantage of being up and running tackling this race third up. He had his chance behind Mr Mozart last start in the Doncaster Prelude but he still ran well, beating third comfortably. Might be looking for the mile now, however. 7. Exoboom maps to give away a big head start but there was a lot to like about his return behind Gem Song over an unsuitable 1200m. That sets him up nicely for 1400m second up. 11. Art Cadeau finished alongside Exoboom there and he maps to get a very similar run, doing no early work to find a spot from the inside gate. 9. Criaderas perhaps draws too well for his get-back style but we know what he is capable of. A lot needs to fall into place for him, however.

How To Play It: Huetor WIN

Race 10 - 5:05PM CATANACH'S HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

9. April Rain won three of her first four starts but has been costly to punters since then. She’s winless in her past five despite $2.80 being the longest price she has jumped in any of those starts. In her defence, luck deserted her in a couple of those while she finished narrow seconds in two others. She is explosive fresh and we saw that first up last campaign when rattling home into second behind Quantico. That saw her head south for a Group race where she never got clear, running ninth. Thereafter she plugged into fourth on a heavy track at Cranbourne but was subsequently found to have a throat issue. She’s had tieback surgery since. The five-year-old won’t want it too wet on Saturday but she looks ready to go on the back of a very impressive trial.

Dangers: Want to give 11. Samoot another chance. She blew her rivals away in her first Australian start before starting hard in the market in the G3 Birthday Card, which was dominated by Emanate. She ran the fastest 600-200 in the race before peaking on her run. Has been freshened since then and will love a fast run 1200m to play stalker. 6. Maotai will ensure a genuine tempo. The three-year-old was seven weeks between runs at Newcastle last start and perhaps that explains him knocking up late. Looks well paired with Nash Rawiller. 8. Much Much Better is an underrated horse capable of absorbing early pressure and he has won his past two first up runs. Big watch on Kris Lees’ import 3. Acquitted having trialled well ahead of his Australian debut.

How To Play It: April Rain WIN

All the fields, form and replays for All Aged Stakes Day at Randwick

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