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Brad Gray's Tips For Randwick Guineas Day (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 12:20PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

1. Navajo Peak comes out of a very fast race behind Lindermann first up at Rosehill over 1400m and want to trust that reference in this, as opposed to the Midway form many of his rivals offer. The trade off coming back in grade is the 61kg. The four-year-old raced in two Midways himself last campaign winning one by a margin before being run down by Mahagoni. Not your average Midway horse. Thereafter he found himself in the right part of the track to beat Main Stage and King Frankel out to 2000m. He’d be an even better bet on a wet track but there is enough evidence yet to suggest that he doesn’t like firmer footing. Maps to get a lovely soft run, loves Randwick and wouldn’t have to improve much on what he did first up to fight out the finish.

Dangers: 16. Carolina Fire was beaten by 2. Cheerful Legend in Midway company two weeks ago and although inclined to treat that race with caution given just two lengths separated first to ninth, she makes her own luck and drops to 51kg. She’s sure to run well again. 6. Left Reeling profiles to be a sharp improver second up out to the mile after being run off her feet over 1250m at Canterbury first up by an all-the-way winner. Like the soft draw and the booking of Brenton Avdulla. 9. Herb closed off strongly behind Essonne at Kembla Grange last start and looks ready for the mile again now. 15. Myoshi also looks desperate for 1600m having been one paced over shorter trips in her two runs back. She isn’t having much luck with barriers, however.

How To Play it: Najavo Peak WIN

Race 2 - 12:55PM UNSW TODMAN STAKES (1200 METRES)

2. Red Resistance has found the front in both of his wins to date, got complete control and kicked clear. The might be a knock come the Golden Slipper, that he hasn’t yet been tested under any kind of pressure, but it won’t be an excuse here as he looks to own this race from in front too, given the field of just five runners. The imposing colt was too good for King’s Gambit in the Canonbury five weeks ago which ties the form in through Cylinder. The son of Russian Revolution has been back to the trials since and he smashed the clock at Warwick Farm, running a sub 32s last 600m split. Get the impression that we’ve just scraped the surface regarding what Red Resistance might be capable of as he is still learning on the job. Despite winning handsomely last start he still got lost late, wanting to wonder about in the straight.

Dangers: 1. Cylinder has a real sense of timing about him. The Godolphin-trained colt is coming good just at the right time. He had excuses at his first two starts and should have beaten the subsequent Blue Diamond winner at Caulfield in one of those defeats. He is likely to find himself outside of Red Resistance in the run on Saturday and get his chance to build off his Silver Slipper win. His late strength says 1200m is no problem. 4. Café Millenium ran faster time than the Inglis Millenium when winning so impressively at Randwick on debut. He’ll be close enough if good enough in this small field but doubt a sit-sprint would play to his strengths, which is clearly his closing speed. 3. Empire Of Japan has trialled well after being forced too far back in the Magic Millions. 5. Militarize won stylishly at the midweeks on debut but looks more a Sires’ prospect.

How To Play It: Red Resistance WIN

Race 3 - 1:30PM YARRAMAN PARK REISLING STAKES (1200 METRES)

The Inglis Millenium looks the obvious form reference for the Reisling Stakes this year which makes 1. Learning To Fly a deserved odds on favourite. The margin wasn’t big but she did a fantastic job to get home given where she was forced to settle from the wide gate. That’s now two from two from the reining Golden Slipper favourite. Keen to see her out to 1200m for the first time and the small field should see her lob into a spot just in behind the leaders. The Millenium form was franked in last Saturday’s Sweet Embrace while her win over Steel City on debut even reads well now too, with that filly matching motors with Red Resistance prior before running without luck in the Blue Diamond. Should justify her short quote.

Dangers: If there is to be an upset, it has to be 6. Mathkhoora, the blueblood debutant out of Mossfun. Loved the way she trialled most recently, running fast time and seemingly doing it in second gear. Looks to possess the speed to take up the running. 3. Facile is on the quick backup after narrowly missing out in the Sweet Embrace, having ruin fifth in the Millenium prior. 4. Cigar Flick is looming in her races but not going on with it late. The blinkers going on for the first time looks a key gear change.

How To Play It: Learning To Fly WIN

Race 4 - 2:05PM TAB RANDWICK CITY STAKES (2000 METRES)

4. Sir Lucan last raced in the 2021 Melbourne Cup behind Verry Elleegant so he’s sure to improve on whatever he does on Saturday. However, the Waterhouse and Bott stable will have got him as fit as possible ahead of his return after 69 weeks on the sidelines. The five-year-old looked rusty in his first trial back before improving sharply in his most recent hit out. It was a huge improvement from one trial to his next. Nash Rawiller rode him in both trials and he sticks first up. There doesn’t look to be a lot of speed on paper here either with his stablemate Sacramento most likely keeping Sir Lucan company up front. At the early price, happy to take the punt that Sir Lucan can make a first up statement ahead of a Sydney Cup tilt.

Dangers: 3. Sacramento doesn’t have a change of gears but he looks ready to win now third up having run third to King Frankel last start. Will be better again out to 2400m but he is trending towards another win. Classy stayer 1. Soulcombe found the mile too short first up when well held by Banju. That was despite starting hard in the market. The import is better suited out to 2000m and well placed to bounce back. Might need 2400m already though. 8. Athabascan could also improve sharply out to 2000m second up. He was only warming up through the line first up over 1600m. His first run in Australia over this trip was excellent behind Star Of India. 9. Bullfinch has to stretch to 2000m but he continues to race well.

How To Play It: Sir Lucan EACH WAY

Race 5 - 2:40PM TOKYO CITY KEIBA FIREBALL STAKES (1100 METRES)

3. Economics was scratched at the barriers two weeks ago so instead he went back to the trials and won his heat over 1000m by a space. For a colt with just four starts to his name, it has been far from smooth sailing. There is no doubting the talent of the three-year-old, however. His first up win over 1100m at Rosehill in the Heritage Stakes last preparation was brilliant, on the clock and to the eye. We didn’t see him again until the G1 Coolmore down the straight in a very deep race where he more than held his own. James McDonald jumps back aboard having ridden him in his Scone maiden win. He also has the task of overcoming what looks a tricky gate. There is plenty of speed drawn inside of him.

Dangers: 11. Willinga Beast is the best placed runner under the conditions of the race given her benchmark rating. She’ll see a good track for the first time on Saturday but like the depth through her fillies form lines over the spring. 5. Troach will be the first to the fence from barrier 1 and from there it simply comes down to how much pressure she is forced to absorb. Don’t underestimate her and she pairs well with Tim Clark. Could find the front and keep on running. 12. Dashing Legend has a problematic barrier to overcome too. Loved her first up win at Canterbury, albeit in benchmark company. 7. Felix Majestic ran fast time when winning at Rosehill back in December.

How To Play It: Economics WIN

Race 6 - 3:20PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS CHALLENGE STAKES (1000 METRES)

1. Eduardo is chasing three straight Challenge Stakes having knocked off Nature Strip on both occasions. The nine-year-old has ran five times first up for Joe Pride for four wins and a 1.5L defeat in the Lightning Stakes down the straight. He is a rocket fresh. Only one of those wins was on a Good track, the 2021 Challenge, but he broke the Randwick 1000m record which still stands today. The veteran sprinter has trialled on two occasions ahead of his return, which is standard, and he gets his usual rider Nash Rawiller. That all sets up for him to run up to his past fresh form. Sure, he didn’t run up to his best at the backend of the spring but willing to overlook that. It’s also advantage Eduardo under the weight-for-age conditions.

Dangers: There is an easy case to be made that 8. Giga Kick should be undefeated. The three-year-old didn’t get a lot of room at a critical stage in the VRC Classic on the back of his brilliant TAB Everest win three weeks prior. Has trialled and jumped out well ahead of his return. 3. Remarque has won three from four since being gelded and resumed with a brilliant win first up with 62kg on his back. Another dry track suits, as does the freshen staying at 1000m. Onwards to The Galaxy after Saturday. Through that race the luckless 6. Key Largo at least rates a mention as the outsider. 2. Paulele has an exceptional Randwick record (7:5-0-2), races well fresh and loves firm tracks. 5. The Bopper is a 1000m specialist.

How To Play It: Eduardo WIN

Race 7 - 4:00PM FURPHY CANTERBURY STAKES (1300 METRES)

8. Imperatriz leaves New Zealand shores for the first time but the timing couldn’t be any better coming off a career best performance at Te Rapa where she put 4.5 lengths on a classy Group One field. The clock backed up the eye too. Levante, beaten six lengths, came out and won her subsequent start at Group One level out to the mile, with La Crique running second. La Crique was beaten over seven lengths by Imperatriz. Can she repeat that effort? Even allowing for some regression, she is the horse to beat. It just comes down to how short is too short in betting. The map looks a little tricky on paper but expect James McDonald to be positive early to find a spot in the first couple given their doesn’t look to be a lot of pressure on paper.

Dangers: 1. Cascadian will find 1300m on the sharp side but he is suited by the WFA scale and has shown up fresh in the past. Beware the baldy-faced assassin. 2. Artorius will be allowed to find his feet in the second half of the field before thundering home. Training duo Anothony and Sam Freedman have been very considered in finding the perfect first up assignment for the four-year-old after returning from overseas. 6. Old Flame should get the run of the race and has built an imposing record. He shouldn’t be underestimated at odds. 11. Golden Mile got a pass mark first up when a distant second to Mariamia. Has been freshened up since then, trialling at Hakwesbury. 5. Converge will appreciate a dry track.

How To Play It: Imperatriz WIN

Race 8 - 4:40PM THE AGENCY RANDWICK GUINEAS (1600 METRES)

4. Zou Tiger has made a habit of finding one or two too good most recently but there was very little between him and Osipenko last start. He’ll put himself in the first couple again. Keen to see him out to the mile for the first time.

Dangers: It was hard to miss the return of 5. Matcha Latte in the Hobartville, especially in the context of him only being first up. Looks to have returned better again and is well set up out to the mile second up as he heads towards the Rosehill Guineas, which looks even more suitable. 3. Aft Cabin will need to bounce back from last start but he did jump $1.60 favourite. 9. Lindermann ran three lengths faster time than the Hobartville when winning a benchmark race on the same meeting.

How To Play It: Zou Tiger WIN

Race 9 - 5:20PM MOSTYNCOPPER ASPIRATION QUALITY (1600 METRES)

2. Roots worked home strongly at the end of 1400m first up in the Millie Fox behind Electric Girl and Expat two weeks ago. That was after a nine week let up. The four-year-old had trialled twice prior to her resumption but that run should top her off perfectly for the mile second up. Her record over the trip reads 5:2-1-1 and another good track suits. Whether she is entitled to be as short as she is in early markets is up for debate but there is no denying how perfect Saturday’s set up looks to be. The cherry on top is how well she maps. It’s not hard to have her as close as the second pair in running given the make up of this field is of mares that like to find their feet. James McDonald has ridden her five times for four wins.

Dangers: This race has the smell of an upset and 5. Pink Ivory might be the mare to cause it. She is a deadest dry tracker so Saturday’s surface will be to her liking. The four-year-old resumed in BM72 company last preparation but nobody missed her work through the line. The barrier could give her the chance to park up closer. Speaking of benchmark form, that’s what 11. Banana Queen brings into this but this sees her drop 6kg and she was narrowly denied four straight wins last start. Should be able to roll forward and take up a spot in a race lacking speed. Barrier 1 looks sticky for 4. Cliff’s Art given her get back style but the mile on a dry track is the right set up for her.

How To Play It: Roots WIN

Race 10 - 5:55PM RANVET WENONA GIRL QUALITY (1200 METRES)

2. Sky Command was excellent last preparation, and dispelled the notion that she was a wet track 1100m horse. Turns out that isn’t true. The speedy four-year-old was advantaged by the way the track played when taking out the Nivision over the spring but never looked back thereafter. She ran placings behind Clemenceau and Zethus before ending her campaign with an all-the-way win in the Razor Sharp beating Waihaha Falls, on a good track. That was 12 weeks ago now. Just the one trial ahead of her return but that’s all she needed prior to resuming last time in too. Love the way she trialled at Wyong might light work of her rivals. Spears across to take control of this race and will get her chance to own it from the outset.

Dangers: 10. Jump The Broom looks the most likely to keep Sky Command company up front and she boxed on well in the G3 Triscay first up having led. 9. Po Kare Kare got the better of her late but Jump The Broom was only first up there. 1. Promise Of Success probably needs 1400m and the sting out of the ground to produce her best but she’s the class runner here and the low draw should see her settle close enough if good enough. The Triscay looks a key form reference for this so reluctant to overlook the winner Po Kare Kare, even though she was a surprise winner there. 8. Written Beauty faces another problematic map from the gate but her Triscay run was better than it reads on paper. Just had to do too much work to get into the race from the 600-400m. 7. Bring The Ransom is hit and miss but can be dangerous, particularly fresh.

How To Play It: Sky Command WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting

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