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By Brad Gray

The barrier looks problematic for 1. Cylinder but we’ll leave that to James McDonald to overcome. The Godolphin colt has the benefit of two trials and he has looked professional in both hitouts. In the first of those he went to the line with Line Of Law, but still looked to have more to offer, before backing that up with an effortless trial win at Wyong. It was nothing more than a stroll in the park given the time was considerably slower than the other 845m heats that morning but he did it in style, pulling away from his rivals at the finish. Two trials, McDonald rides, James Cummings trains, by out of brilliant two-year-old producer Exceed And Excel, there’s a lot in the favour of this debutant. Impossible to be confident in a field of first starters but inclined to play the percentages with Cylinder.

Dangers: The stablemate 3. Ferghana doesn’t have the same barrier worries. He draws a lovely gate in one to stalk the speed with Nash Rawiller in the saddle. He was well held by 6. Wild Beau in his first hitout before matching motors with Cylinder in his latest trial. The map evens them up. Wild Beau has obvious claims himself. The Brazen Beau colt showed good early speed in a 740m trial, clearing out with his stablemate Disneck who ran eighth in Saturday’s Golden Gift. Is there anything to be read into Rachel King riding 10. Line Of Law over Wild Beau given she sat on both in their trials and are both trained by Bjorn Baker? Perhaps. The filly looked a natural in her one trial, holding off Cylinders after settling outside of the lead. 7. Bangetta looked sharp in her synthetic trial win.

How To Play It: Cylinder WIN

7. Smooth Esprit is going to appreciate a good track. Two starts ago he won a Highway over 1500m at Rosehill on a good track. He failed to back that up out to 1800m on soft ground.

Dangers: 5. The Dramatist caught the eye late at Rosehill over 1200m from well back in the field. Just has to cope with the jump straight out to the mile second up to be in the finish again. 10. Radiohead really speared to the line in the Highway that Smooth Esprit won back in September before reappearing at Goulburn five weeks later to miss by a nostril. 9. Let Me Reign has the most upside of any runner here but faces a tricky map. Patience is wearing thin with 2. Jalmari. He prefers it wet.

How To Play It: Smooth Esprit WIN

2. Short Shorts ran her rivals into the ground at Rosehill seven days ago with a showing of sustained speed. That’s now four wins from her 10 starts. Last start was the first time Tom Sherry had ridden the four-year-old mare and the pair clicked. It was a meeting where it was an advantage to be handy given the track played fast and firm but she towelled up her rivals to win by 3.4 lengths going away. And the time was sharp on the clock. Don’t imagine too much changes here tactics-wise. Sherry will be out to replicate that same ride in the same grade, back to her own sex. The obvious difference in the hike in weight from 54kg to 58.5kg. She’s always been a work in progress and it all looks to be clicking for her now. Her record on top of the ground now reads 4:2-1-0 as well.

Dangers: 1. French Bonnet has won three from three second up. She had her chance first up having sat outside of Cotehele, who walked in front, coming again through the line to hold down third. The five-year-old has also won twice at the track already and is four from six over 1400m. It’s a compelling case. 3. Miss Madison beat Short Shorts on her merits three starts ago. Travelled like the winner last start at Rosehill but Waterford proved too good at the finish. There’s no shame in that. The knock is whether she’s more effective on wetter tracks. The same can be said for 4. Thalassophile but she’ll have fond memories of Newcastle having won a Class 1 by over six lengths there back in March. 5. Mayrose gives the impression she’ll relish 1400m, and a dry track.

How To Play It: Short Shorts WIN

8. King Frankel has hit the ground running in his first Australian preparation. The UK import has won two of his three starts for Mark Newnham and there’s a case to be made that only the track pattern denied him victory at Randwick in between the two wins. Last start the five-year-old dropped back to midweek company and justified his odds on quote. Although the margin was only narrow at the finish he was always in control having taken up the running. There was four lengths back to third. The improving stayer has to stretch out to 2300m now and transfer his wet form onto a dry track but he won his maiden on a good track in the UK by 32 lengths! Albeit in a field of three runners as a $1.80 pop. Still, he has more upside than anything else here.

Dangers: Not ready to completely drop off 3. Chalk Stream yet. Granted, patience is starting to wear thin but it hasn’t been smooth sailing for the five-year-old this campaign. He was six weeks between runs when fourth in the St Leger last start. Yet to see a good track in Australia. The last time he raced on a good track he won by 5.8 lengths at Ascot. 6. Gin Martini probably wins with clear running last start over 1900m. That tops her off nicely for 2300m now fourth up. 5. Our Candidate brings that same Pale King form reference and he gets a 6kg weight swing on 4. Sound Of Cannons. 7. Outlandos drops 7kg himself from last start. 2. Fun Fact can float in and out of form but making his own luck, he has shown he is capable of pinching races at this level if he is not given due respect out in front.

How To Play It: Pale King WIN

8. Scorched Land is a Midway winner back in August, so we know he’s up to the task, and is versatile enough to be forward of midfield in the run. That looks a huge advantage given the lack of pressure on paper. The five-year-old, trained by Todd Howlett, took late ground off Ang Pow at Newcastle two starts ago over 1350m, with Ang Pow subsequently winning by even further in Queensland. Then last start Scorched Land started an $18 chance in the Four Pillars but nothing went right for him. The wide draw dictated that he settled well back in the run and he was squeezed out of a tight gap at the 400m mark when just starting to build momentum. He was still only beaten 4.5 lengths. It’s a very different scenario for him at Newcastle on Saturday.

Dangers: 12. Wrathful is a talent but it’s still very early days as far as his career goes. He might still be good enough to pick this up on the way through but mindful that he’s only had two starts and comes off a narrow last start maiden win. Albeit, there was four lengths back to third. 4. Annulus only needs to break cleanly to find the front in a race without an obvious leader. He was an all-the-way winner over this same track and trip two weeks ago. 3. Sebrenco comes off a fourth in the Four Pillars and the runner up Awesome Lad subsequently franked that form at Hawkesbury on Wednesday. 11. Floating will relish the mile but the lack of pressure is the knock. 7. Tympanist is hard to catch but capable on his day.

How To Play It: Scorched Land EACH WAY

7. Global Ausbred ran fourth in the Silver Eagle first up at massive odds before proving that was no fluke with a second to Waterford out to 1500m. The four-year-old has the looks and the pedigree to add to his tally of three wins now third up out to 1850m. He has just been outsprinted in his two runs back before coming again through the line. That won’t be an issue out in trip now. Hugh Bowman had his first ride on the four-year-old two weeks ago and he sticks. The other box Global Ausbred ticked last start was the good track one. He handles all conditions. His asset, being a big, strong lump of a gelding, is his ability to put himself on top of the speed and sustain a gallop. Without another obvious leader engaged here, he’ll get his chance.

Dangers: 4. Bonny Ezra produced an eye-catching effort at Randwick behind Diamil first up over the mile. He maps to take advantage of a low draw in this and finds James McDonald. Like the three weeks between runs ensuring there is still some speed in his legs for this trip. 10. Rondino has had a six week freshen after demolishing a midweek field over 2400m. He has now won three of his past seven and is still improving. 12. Pink Ivory drops back slightly in trip and maps to settle out the back but she’ll get her preferred dry surface. The blinkers came off last start but they go back on now, after she ran second to Pale King. 9. Maurice’s Medad gets the blinkers for the first time and there is some intent to ride him closer. This is a suitable race for 2. Yiyi.

How To Play It: Global Ausbred WIN

5. Token Capitalist held his own in the Callander-Presnell at Randwick three weeks ago, finishing a distant fourth. That form reference behind the Caulfield Guineas winner Golden Mile reads well for this, despite being beaten 6.5 lengths. He held off Basquiat late. Being a son of Capitalist should see him relish getting onto a good track for the first time. He is still in his first campaign and learning on the job but he’ll put himself on top of the speed, looking the likely leader with a clean getaway, and he’ll give a sight at double figure odds. The only real blemish in his record to date, with just four starts to his name, was when he dumped the rider soon after the jump, two starts ago. Otherwise, the Annabel Neasham-trained gelding has done very little wrong.

Dangers: 3. Saveadateforme could have a ceiling higher than any of his rivals here but the market has cottoned on to that too. He trotted in at Goulburn last start when an odds on favourite in Class 2 company. There is harder and he draws wide. James McDonald rides 2. Robusto for Chris Waller, with the stable well represented with four runners. Robusto charged to the line to win at Randwick last start. He too draws to give away a head start though. 1. Basquiat hasn’t gone on with it after promising more as a two-year-old but this is arguably the most winnable race he has contested all carnival. 8. Pierossa comes out of maiden grade but she’d been promising to do that for some time. 9. So You Battle is a sneaky chance at big odds.

How To Play It: Token Capitalist EACH WAY

5. In The Congo was attacked in front in the Golden Eagle by Mr Mozart and thought he was brave to finish just four lengths off the winner in seventh. The horse eyeballing him up front was beaten seven lengths. In The Congo was also jumping 1200m to 1500m having contested the Sydney Stakes two weeks prior. This looks a better set up for the Golden Rose winner coming back to 1300m where he can better use his natural speed. Drawn barrier 2, he’ll get first crack at finding the front. From there it comes down to how aggressive they are on Apache Chase from a wide draw. This looks the most winnable race that the four-year-old has contested all campaign so he is entitled to be favourite. He ran third in a G1 Galaxy last preparation and second to Mazu in an Arrowfield.

Dangers: 6. Vilana’s Golden Eagle chances copped a hammer blow with the barrier draw. He found himself giving away an impossible start and did well to get as close as he did, finishing eighth. Nash Rawiller sticks and there should be a spot for him just in behind the speed here. If Jim Byrne gets the first half of the race right on 1. Apache Chase, he’s in with a huge showing. Has to lump the top weight of 59kg but it didn’t stop Lost And Running last year. 3. Eleven Eleven comes through the Group One Manikato while 11. Skyman is an intriguing runner with James McDonald doing the steering. The trip will likely to be to sharp but he could react well fresh.

How To Play It: In The Congo WIN

Doesn’t take too much imagination to conclude that 1. Waihaha Falls should have won the Sydney Stakes first up. Forced back from the wide gate he motored to the line in restricted room. That was on the back of two arrogant wins in the middle of the year as he worked his way through the grades. The penny looks to have well and truly dropped with this lightly-raced five-year-old now. He’d just about jump favourite in The Hunter should he gain a start. His rapidly rising rating sees him carry 61.5kg, even after the claim of Reece Jones, and his best form to date have been away from good tracks. They’re both levellers. He’s far from over the line but he does set up beautifully from the low draw. The market hasn’t missed him but he’s clearly a sprinter on the rise.

Dangers: 18. Democracy Manifest did a fantastic job to run on into second last start given that the leader and winner 5. Cotehele got an absolute picnic out in front. That won’t be the case here. He’ll relish the hot tempo that this race promises, especially with 54kg on his back. That’s no knock on how Cotehele has returned. Imagine he trails the speed this time with Joe Pride’s front running duo 5. Coal Crusher and 7. Titanium Power keeping each other company up front. John Thompson has the Ingham circled for 8. Jojo Was A Man so he’ll improve on whatever he does first up but he was a big winner fresh last campaign before going right on with it thereafter. Wary of him showing up here on the back of two trials, smoking the pipe midfield.

How To Play It: Waihaha Falls

There’s enough in the early price to give 12. Kermanding the chance to bounce back. He was too bad to be true last start at Randwick when sent around a $6.50 chance. The five-year-old settled out the back from the wide draw and made no impression late. The jockey reported that he may have got his tongue over the bit. The only other explanation could be that he flattened off second up having run so well first up despite a 79 week spell. Like that he has been given three weeks to freshen up from that. He also draws to settle closer and gets back onto a good track. They’re all positives. The draw is particularly advantageous given the lack of speed on paper. Kermanding showed plenty as a three year-old and he sets up perfectly to rediscover that form again.

Dangers: 6. One Aye ran a terrific race in the Big Dance last start despite being sent around at $71. She was shuffled back in the first half of the race before matching motors with Diamil in the sprint to the line. 11. Adjourn is the big unknown. The British import is being kept very safe in early betting. James McDonald’s booking adds to the intrigue. His one win to date came over 2000m. The last five minutes of betting might tell the story there. 8. Notions should get on speed favours with Tim Clark in the saddle and should improve off her third to Waterford last start given she was nine weeks between runs. 5. Kedah wasn’t disgraced in the Big Dance herself and she maps to get a lovely soft run in behind the speed. Last start winner 13. Redwood Shadow best of the rest.

How To Play It: Kermanding EACH WAY

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Newcastle meeting