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Brad Gray's Tips For Hawkesbury Cup Day (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 11:25AM ST JOHNS PARK BOWLING CLUB CLARENDON STAKES (1400 METRES)

2. Zardozi is the only last start winner in the field and it was by a dominant margin. The Kingman filly won narrowly on debut at Gosford over 1200m before putting two lengths on her rivals over this same track and trip a couple of weeks ago. This looks a lovely third up target for the James Cummings-trained two-year-old. The market has found her, but rightly so. She profiles as the horse to beat. Chad Schofield has ridden Zardozi in her two previous starts too. The barrier is a little tricky in the context of there being no obvious leader in the field but as she proved last start, she possesses the turn of foot to overcome that. The other bonus is that she will handle any track Hawkesbury throws up on Saturday having won on a Soft 5 and a Heavy 9 already.

Dangers: The upside with 1. Quasimoto is getting out beyond 1100m for the first time. Like the way he closed off to run second in the Wellington Boot last start. There’s good depth to his form lines from last preparation too. 5. Rimbaud didn’t look comfortable in the heavy conditions in the Kindergarten Stakes last start. He showed speed to lead over 1000m on debut at Scone. Could find himself in front here which looks a big tactical advantage given the make up of the race. 3. Californian jumped a well backed favourite through the same race as Zardozi last start but couldn’t quicken from outside of the leader. Would expect him to be ridden with cover this time. 4. Icebreaker also comes through that same race.

How To Play It: Zardozi WIN

Race 2 - 12:00PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

2. Dollar Magic ran second to Mogo Magic first up, one of the most impressive Highway Handicap winners we’ve seen so far this year, before winning at Scone second up. The four-year-old mare beat Barradas on that occasion and we’ve since seen Barradas frank that form line by running well in last Saturday’s Highway behind Preemptory. Dollar Magic is four weeks between runs but that appears to be by design with the daughter of Shamus Award appreciating being kept fresh. She is also versatile in terms of where she can settle in+ the run having won from in front and from further back. That’s significant given her tricky draw. It’s the only negative really, where she might find herself in the run. Otherwise, she profiles as the horse to beat.

Dangers: 10. Titration is also a proven Highway performer. James McDonald has only ever ridden for Cameron Crockett on five occasions, for two winners. This gelding went down narrowly first up and has trialled well since. Will roll forward and make his own luck. 14. No Filter has been freshened since winning at Port Macquarie last start. Liked his trial since then and he maps to get the right run. 13. Star To Fall was well backed in early betting and she too has trialled well.

How To Play It: Dollar Magic WIN

Race 3 - 12:35PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

If not for a wobble down the straight 13. Shadows Of Love would have beaten Olentia last start at Hawkesbury. She lost on protest. Olentia won a Group Three race 10 days later, taking the scalps of Magic Time and Opal Ridge. Shadows Of Love is flying this time back and she is no stranger to Hawkesbury, having raced at the track three times already in her five start career. She also maps nicely, with the barrier giving Brenton Avdulla options. It’s far from the perfect set up, coming back from 1300m on a heavy track to tackle an 1100m sprint up in grade onto a firmer surface, however, she is entitled to be favourite. The early market may have her too short but expecting that to correct itself come closer to jump.

Dangers: 7. Tidal Impact never saw daylight first up at Warwick Farm. She parked in behind the speed but didn’t get out of first gear. The four-year-old could be a sharp improver second up. 2. Miss Kojiki looks to be most explosive over 1100m at the moment. She ran well over that trip at the midweeks last start behind Curtis Island. The kind draw will see her cuddled up on the fence and saved for the last shot. That bodes well for her chances. 12. Moonlight Grace trialled exceptionally well ahead of her return, putting a gap on her rivals over 800m. That flags that she has returned better than ever, promising to take the next step from maiden company. Don’t know where she gets to from the draw though. 8. Abuela and 11. Passistas also have knockout claims.

How To Play It: Shadows Of Love WIN

Race 4 - 1:10PM BLAKES MARINE BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

4. Unspoken surged to the line in his first Australian run for Peter and Paul Snowden, running second to tearaway leader Luvoir. The runner up Pretty Amazing, who Unspoken meets again here, since won herself, franking that form line. The lightly-raced import won out to 2000m in the UK before appearing on our shores. There is a touch more depth to this BM78 than the one he contested four weeks ago at the midweeks but you’d think he can only improve off the back of that performance given he has just the one trial going into it. Throw into the mix that the race fit leader set a solid tempo out in front. Josh Parr sticks and the cherry on top is the barrier. Should be forward of midfield and get his chance in what promises to be another truly run race.

Dangers: 13. Hometruths ran out of room in the Epona Stakes at her first Australian run. It was a much better performance than the form guide suggests. Like the way she flattened out through the line despite being beaten well over eight lengths. Was given an easy time in a trial since. 3. Biscayne Bay is ready to win. The mare has put together two fantastic runs at the midweeks. The barrier proved costly in the latest. Hopefully that isn’t an excuse again here having drawn wide once more. Look for her savaging the line. Last start winner 6. Pretty Amazing is yet to win beyond a mile but the way she settles and attacks the line suggests the 1800m won’t pull her up. 1. Cognac will be let rip in front but he won’t be short for company. Showed terrific fight to win last start.

How To Play It: Unspoken WIN

Race 5 - 1:45PM THE LAWN SHED BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

2. Fire found the Group One Lightning Stakes at weight-for-age a little too hot last start but he won’t have to worry about Coolangatta or I Wish I Win back in BM78 company. The four-year-old has been back to the trials since then, with nine weeks between runs, and looked sharp. This is more his level for the time being and he is a proven fresh performer. It looks to play out well for the gelding on paper. The speed looks frantic over the 1100m and the barrier gives Jason Collett licence to play stalker. A role both horse and jockey excel at. Fire has been a little hot and cold in his short career to date but his best wins this. He is well found in the market but this race looks tailor made.

Dangers: 11. Red Card is a quick filly and she put that speed to use last campaign, winning three on the bounce. All from in front. Her trials have been sharp, as you’d expect, and she’ll take catching. Would prefer this to be 1000m first up, which might leave her vulnerable to be picked off late. 8. Mabel will be one of those looking to pounce on the leaders. Like the five weeks between runs given how explosive she is kept fresh. Would the real 17. Able Willie please stand up. Has shown glimpses of talent in his seven starts but has failed to put it all together. Kim Waugh’s 1. Garrison looks well placed but drawn awkwardly.

How To Play It: Fire WIN

Race 6 - 2:20PM HAWKESBURY XXXX GOLD RUSH (1100 METRES)

3. Andermatt should have been in the finish of the Group One Galaxy last start. It was a bunchy finish and he carried just 51kg but that run highlights the purple patch of form this sprinter has hit. Prior to that he charged home over the top of Midwest to win at Rosehill. His closing splits have been exceptional at his past three starts. Like the five weeks between runs as the five-year-old has always been an explosive fresh horse and his jockey did well to hold him as tightly as he did in his tickover trial since then. Andermatt wanted to be let charge. There is a stack of speed on paper which should hopefully see the field break up enough for James McDonald to weave a path clear from barrier 1. That looks the trickiest part of the assignment.

Dangers: It’s weather watch with 6. Juan Diva. It always is. The drier the better. Like the way this mare has trialled on two occasions ahead of her return and not too dissimilar to Andermatt, she possesses a big finish with the right set up. She too will relish a fast run 1100m. On the topic of 1100m, it looks more suitable for 1. Athelric at the moment. He had the excuse of travelling wide over 1200m last start but prefer him over the shorter journeys. 10. A Very Fine Red maps to be seeing most of her rivals turning for home, settling alongside 11. Fox Fighter but they’ll both come with powerful closes too.

How To Play It: Andermatt WIN

Race 7 - 3:00PM BLACKTOWN WORKERS CLUB GROUP HAWKESBURY GUINEAS (1400M)

2. Kote went too fast in front in the Arrowfield Stakes last start. The wide gate forced the tactics change and it backfired with the enigmatic chestnut refusing to settle. His two runs prior to that were brilliant. On both occasions he was ridden with cover. That’ll be the challenge for Josh Parr having his first ride on Kote, to get him to drop his head in the run. Kote was sent around at single figure odds last start and despite his manners was still only beaten three lengths by Aft Cabin. The son Choisir is tackling 1400m for the first time since his first preparation but deep into a campaign, the timing is right to try again. It’s always risk vs reward with Kote but there’s enough in the early price to roll the dice.

Dangers: 9. Razeta’s form through a deep edition of the Surround Stakes read well for the South Pacific Classic last start and she ran right up to her best to win by a space. It was on the back of a perfect Dylan Gibbons ride, with the apprentice sticking with the filly. Drawn to get the right run again. 7. Hawaii Five Oh won’t want any rain this week. Just missed at the midweeks last start having bumped not Major Beel the start prior.

How To Play It: Kote WIN

Race 8 - 3:40PM PIONEER SERVICES HAWKESBURY CROWN (1300 METRES)

Wish this was 1400m instead of 1. Princess Grace but the American-raced mare was excellent in her first Australian start, running third to Zapateo. That Sapphire Stakes looks a key form reference for this. She can only improve off that and again looks well placed under the conditions here given what she has already achieved.

Dangers: 6. Written Beauty also brings Zapateo form into this. Like the way she has trialled since. Over to you Joao Moreira to get her to jump on terms. 10. Never Talk responded well to the blinkers going on for the first time last start. Will want some sting out of the ground though. The same can be said for front running mare 2. Expat. 14. Dalchini has knockout claims.

How To Play It: Princess Grace WIN

Race 9 - 4:20PM RICHMOND CLUB HAWKESBURY GOLD CUP (1600 METRES)

8. New Mandate looked to box on fairly first up in the Doncaster Prelude to the eye but the race turned into a sprint home. He was deceptively fast. As was the rest of the field given the lack of early pressure. That set up was never going to suit the import, who is in his second Australian preparation under Chris Waller. In his first he ran in the Five Diamonds and Ingham. He wasn’t beaten far in either. What really make you pay too attention to this five-year-old’s chances on Saturday was how well he trialled since then. James McDonald rode there and New Mandate trucked to the line in restricted room. The speed promises to be more genuine for him second up and he is drawn to park up midfield, getting his chance from there.

Dangers: 3. Floating Artist was 74 weeks between runs when fourth at Bendigo first up three weeks ago. His start prior was in Verry Elleegant’s Melbourne Cup win. The Maher and Eustace stable appear to be bullish about how the seven-year-old has returned despite the lengthy lay off. Lightly-raced nine-year-old 5. Berdibek has raced without luck first up in his past two preparations. The barrier doesn’t make his task any easier but the grey will be flashing late at big odds. 10. Lord Ardmore perhaps needed the run at Warwick Farm last start to top him off for this third up target. Love the way he hit the line first up, also coming through the Doncaster Prelude. 16. Kiss The Bride also has knockout claims given his history of improving second up.

How To Play It: New Mandate WIN

Race 10 - 4:55PM CLARENDON TAVERN BENCHMARK 88 HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

5. Wicklow hit the line powerfully at Rosehill first up despite being horribly suited by a lack of pressure up front. That BM88 won by Tamerlane has proven to be a hot form race since. The five-year-old has been back to the trials and was given an easy time, bridging the four week gap between runs. Wicklow also has a fantastic second up record (3:2-0-1) and handles all track conditions. The barrier is the final piece of the puzzle and drawing well, he shouldn’t be left with any excuses. Wide gates proved costly on a couple of occasions at the back end of last preparation. He rattled home from last in the Big Dance. It’s a perfect set up, with Nash Rawiller doing the steering. Looks hard to beat.

Dangers: 3. Spangler may have been flattered by a brilliant James McDonald ride last start and the heavy track, but he was dominant. In putting near five lengths on his rivals the grey let down with the fastest last 200m split of the entire Randwick meeting. French import 10. Pervade adds plenty of interest having his first run in Australia for Chris Waller. Have liked the way he has trialled on two occasions. Respect any market confidence. 12. Estadio Mestalla was a big winner first up last preparation.

How To Play It: Wicklow WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Hawkesbury Cup meeting

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