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Brad Gray's Tips For Big Dance Day (Randwick Tuesday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 11:45AM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

4. Loving Cilla is sneaky flying. The lightly-raced six-year-old relished getting out to a staying trip for the first time at the backend of last preparation. Fourth up, 1800m and back onto a dry track, this is by far the best set up she has had to win this campaign. As expected, she found 1300m too sharp first up in Midway company, but she savaged the line. Loving Cilla then missed the start out to 1500m in Midway company once more, and again savaged the line. Mahagoni, Najavo Peak, Essential Sky and Zou De Moon have all win since so it’s proven to be a deep race. Then last start Loving Cilla did her best in very heavy conditions at Canterbury. There was merit in her effort to run third. She’s had three weeks to freshen up from that, gets onto a firmer surface and trainer Joe Ible finds a very winnable race.

Dangers: 2. Onemore Sapphire can be a little hit-and-miss but he is a proven Midway performer and has a terrific grounding for this coming off a 2000m second at Hawkesbury. Maps to get the right run. The barrier doesn’t make 1. Karmazone’s task of winning three straight an easy one but Zac Lloyd sticks after making all of the right decisions at Warwick Farm last start, slicing through the field. The query is the depth of that form line but the same can be asked of many of Karmazone’s rivals here. 13. Nautical Miss has more upside than most and sets up well out to 1800m third up, albeit coming off a Class 1 second on her home track Kembla Grange. It’s a similar case for 5. Acceber. His best is still in front of him but he’s well found on what he has done to date in lesser grade.

How To Play It: Loving Cilla WIN

Race 2 - 12:25PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

8. Salire faces a tricky draw but the five-year-old is versatile. He has raced well from on top of the speed and from behind. We’ll leave that in the capable hands of Nash Rawiller. Salire went back last start in Highway Handicap company and picked his way through the field to run an eye-catching third behind Shalstar. Prior to that he ran third to Opal Ridge despite not appearing to love the heavy conditions. The lightly-raced sprinter has been freshened since we last saw him with six weeks between runs but loved the way he trucked through the line to win a Scone trial since then. He looks prepared to run right up to his best, which has to see him in the finish with even luck. The only drawback is how well he is found in the market.

Dangers: Matt Dale-trained 19. Pretty Woman didn’t kick on with it after winning first up last preparation and showing so much as a two-year-old but she looks beautifully placed here over 1000m in Highway company and should stalk a good speed, getting her chance. Her stablemate 20. Feel The Knight also ran in the Shalstar Highway before not being beaten far in what has since proven to be a deep BM72 at Warwick Farm. Well placed to bounce back on firmer footing. 2. Limited Reality was posted wide throughout in that same Highway. Forgive him that. 9. Miss Kirribilli fits in well. The case for 10. Jillonni is an easy one to make given she beat Le Melody back in August. The barrier is the obvious knock.

How To Play It: Salire WIN

Race 3 - 1:05PM NEW TAB APP HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

3. Tristate raced keenly in behind the speed last start at Randwick and couldn’t quicken with 64kg on his back at the end of 1200m. Suspect we’ll see him ridden for speed dropping back to 1000m. The wide gate effectively means there is no other alternative as he’d resent being ridden conservatively. That scenario appeals. The four-year-old’s asset is his speed. We saw that first up when he gave a sight ahead of Shades Of Rose before he was beaten by less than a length by Remarque. It’ll all come down to getting the first half of the race right for Tyler Schiller. If he can cross without having to dig up Tristate too much, it’s going to take a sharp horse to run him down as there’s every chance that he’ll be off and gone. Winkers come off to help him settle.

Dangers: 1. The Bopper gets a lot in his favour. He flies fresh (4:2-1-0), does his best work on dry tracks and is two from two over 1000m. One of those was a brilliant win at Randwick too. He’ll be launching late on the back of a Scone trial win that says he has returned well. 5. Soami comes here an impressive trial winner himself. Much of his 1000m form is from earlier in his career but convinced he shows up fresh at big odds. 7. Quick Tempo’s form tapered off a touch at the backend of last preparation but his second up third behind Maotai last preparation reads well for this. 2. On The Lead will be giving away a head start from the gate but like the set up over 1000m and a dry track.

How To Play It: Tristate WIN

Race 4 - 1:40PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

8. Saturn Star did it at both ends when winning his maiden at Rosehill four weeks ago, running right through the line at the end of 1200m. Stepping out to 1300m now looks a positive. It was a midweek maiden but it’s a race that has since produced two subsequent winners and a further five placegetters. Saturn Star was scratched at the gates most recently which saw the three-year-old pop up at the trials to keep the engine ticking over. He held off Lost And Running and Buenos Noches in that heat and did it comfortably! The son of Zoustar will roll forward, make his own luck and he has so much scope to charge through the grades. Don’t know where he’ll end up but early indications are that he is well above BM64 company.

Dangers: 7. Hoover Lucy looked a touch disappointing at Hawkesbury last start but she was 1100m to 1400m and had seven weeks between runs. Respect that she still started hard in the market. First up she floundered in the heavy conditions and didn’t find the right part of the track. She can improve sharply. 4. Green Shadows was given his chance in Group company in Queensland as a two-year-old but was plagued by wide gates. The barrier is no help again here first up but he’s well placed in this grade.

How To Play It: Saturn Star WIN

Race 5 - 2:20PM BIG DANCE (1600 METRES)

14. Casino Kid has finished top two in his last four outings. The home bred five-year-old trained out of Muswellbrook keeps getting better with age. He wasn’t suited by the lack of pressure up front when last sighted at the races, running on into second behind 5. Hosier. There will be no such query here in this capacity field. The speed promises to be frantic early. Casino Kid’s record over the mile reads 10:3-5-1 and he also loves the big Randwick straight boasting a record of 9:2-3-0 at the track. Jan Bowen elected to go into this race four weeks between runs given how well he has run off similar set ups in the past. The way he put away his rivals in his trial win since suggests that he is exactly where he needs to be ahead of grand final day.

Dangers: 3. Rustic Steel also has a real sense of timing about his preparation. He was 1200m to 1500m third up when four lengths off Ellsberg. Fourth up out to the mile profiles perfectly. Maps to be closer from the perfect draw and Nash Rawiller is booked. Not too many negatives. 2. Surf Dancer was attacked in front in the Craven Plate last start. Forget that. He’s well set up back to the mile on what should be a firmer track. He’ll have plenty of company up front but he is carrying 61kg for a reason. He is classy. 7. Sibaaq poked home into second behind Ellsberg last start and maps to get a similar run here. 4. Charmmebaby should relish a fast run mile. Can’t see 5. Hosier finding a spot from out there and a dry track is against. 1. Bandersnatch has also drawn poorly.

How To Play It: Casino Kid EACH WAY

Race 6 - 3:30PM LITTLE DANCE (1600 METRES)

4. Solar Apex comes through the strongest form references for this and he hasn’t had any luck at his past couple of starts so overlook that he has finished ninth and eighth. He was forced back to last over 1400m at Rosehill two back after a nine week let up and struck late trouble before he again had an interrupted passage behind Cisco Bay last start. He settled in an awful position there, last on the fence, and looked to be travelling as well as the winner and his stablemate Wicklow before they fought out the finish. Perhaps the positive from that is that he strikes this race on the fresh side. Go back to June and July and his form lines through Surf Dancer and Francesco Gaurdi read well. Willie Pike, off a Goulburn treble, is the jockey tasked with finding galloping room for Solar Apex.

Dangers: 9. Ita was trapped three deep the trip in the G3 Angst last start and boxed on well to be beaten just 3.5L by Hope In Your Heart, who backed that up with a Golden Eagle fourth. The slightest query is her running a strong Randwick mile right out. Super consistent mare though and she’s sure to be in the money again. 11. Two Big Fari has put a string of placing together, having found his form again. Kathy O’Hara will put him right on top of the speed again. He’ll get his chance with just 52kg on his back. 12. Point Counterpoint has returned in terrific form, and most importantly given Saturday’s race, he looks a much sharper horse and very much a genuine miler. 15. Beckford has knockout claims, bringing Point Counterpoint form.

How To Play It: Solar Apex WIN

Race 7 - 4:10PM FUJITSU GENERAL CHOISIR HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

6. Dragonstone found himself in a very tricky spot upon settling at Caulfield first up, wedged away back in the field on the inside. It forced the jockey’s hand to sprint underneath horses on the perceived worst ground. We were quick to peg the four-year-old as a wet tracker but he is two from two on top of the ground and his latest run on a good track was a career peak. That came over this same track and trip back in June. He camped just worse than midfield before producing a sharp turn of foot to put Prime Candidate away. Tom Sherry was on board that day and he jumps back on here. It all aligns to a repeat performance and if that’s the case, he’s mighty hard to beat. The added bonus is the pressure up front. It’s ripe for a backmarker to stalk before ripping home over the top.

Dangers: 10. Clemenceau is a deserved favourite but don’t think there should be the price discrepancy between him and Dragonstone. That said, Clemenceau has obvious claims giving he was unlucky behind stablemate Remarque first up before clearing out with Zethus at Moonee Valley. He had his chance there but there was four lengths back to third, he jumped an even money favourite and Zethus has since placed in a Listed race. Gets in with just 50kg. 7. Sky Command won over 1200m last start but like her dropping back to 1100m. Just comes down to how much early pressure she’s forced to absorb. 5. Handle The Truth is well placed in this company on her best form while 4. Through The Cracks could sneak home into the money, despite the trip being on the sharp side for him.

How To Play It: Dragonstone WIN

Race 8 - 4:50PM FURPHY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

The Kosciuszko is obviously the strongest form reference coming into this as the early market suggest, with second, third and fourth from the country feature all here. Taking the punt that 9. Cavalier Charles can turn the tables on Far Too Easy and Fender given the set up. He draws to settle down a pair or two in front of his two main rivals and plummets in weight to 51.5kg after the claim of Tyler Schiller. The six-year-old was only second up there too. First up he ran a cheeky race behind Brigantine in a deep benchmark assignment. Third up last preparation Cavalier Charles came from the clouds to win at Canberra before taking the scalp of Edit at Scone in track record time so if he runs to past form he’ll come on again from the Kosciuszko.

Dangers: 8. Banju was only beaten 1.4L by Cavalier Charles at Scone and started shorter than him in the market. He profiles as the best long shot. Three trials have him ready, he has fired first up in the past (4:1-2-0) and he maps to get a very cosy run. It’s no easy task for 1. Far Too Easy from the barrier but he is the highest rated runner here and did jump favourite in the Kosciuszko. James Orman stays in Sydney to stick with him, a strong lead in itself. Fender comfortably clocked the fastest closest splits in the Kosciuszko but he’s going to need to do similar in this to get into the money again. 7. Julian Rock brings a different form line, bumping into smart mare Audette last start. He can be hard to catch but is capable at this level on his day.

How To Play It: Cavalier Charles WIN

Race 9 - 5:30PM SHARP EXTENSIVE IT HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

There were a number of reasons to forgive 12. Tamerlane’s last start failure. He raced too keenly in the early and middle stages due to the pedestrian speed in the race. Secondly, he failed to handle the heavy track, with his past best performances on firmer tracks. And thirdly, suspect that the mile is right on his upper limits. That was four weeks ago now and the five-year-old was given a very easy time in a tickover trial since then. He’s beautifully set up to bounce back to his best. A firmer track, perfect draw to be smothered up in behind the speed and back to 1500m. The start prior he ran second to Waterford while the form through his Caulfield third back in August has also been franked. The market is rewarding us handsomely to forget last start.

Dangers: 3. Zoushack looks to have returned as well as ever. He surged to the line twice over 1200m from back in the field which put the writing on the wall that he was ready to win third up and he delivered at the midweeks despite lumping 64.5kg. Hard to chase down again. 7. Wonderful Riri is racing better than her form suggests. Like the way she found the line behind Hope In Your Heart in the G3 Angst. She’ll settle well back in the field again from the draw but soon it’s all going to fall into place for her and she’ll knock off a race like this. The resuming 6. Military Mission will find 1500m too short but could sneak into the money, making his own luck from the inside draw.

How To Play It: Tamerlane EACH WAY

Race 10 - 6:05PM CLEANAWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

6. Ma And Pa didn’t come up at all last preparation. Two campaigns ago he won four straight and then went down in a photo finish to Huetor. It’s a leap of faith in taking the gamble that he can find his best form again but if his two recent trials are any guide, he can bounce back. The five-year-old has looked particularly sharp in two hitouts, having switched stables to Clarry Conners. Nash Rawiller rode the son if Redoute’s Choice, out of gun staying mare Dear Demi, in three of his four wins, and he jumps back aboard here. The 1200m is perhaps on the sharp side for the gelding but expect Nash to be aggressive from the outset to find the front. There is no other designated leader in the race and we’ve seen how dangerous Ma And Pa can be when he is left alone in front.

Dangers: 2. Norwegian Bliss has won six from six, with her last four wins by a length or less. Put simply, she knows how to find the line. She looked in trouble at Hawkesbury the last time we saw her at the races but found a way. Love the way she won her recent trial. All three of 11. Bullet Rider’s past wins have been first up, adding to that tally two weeks ago at Warwick Farm. The form through that race was franked a number of times on Saturday. The query through that win, where he did a terrific job given he covered ground and was 49 weeks between runs, is to bounce off that. 4. Munitions comes back in grade from his past couple and wasn’t beaten far by Finepoint most recently. Gets a lovely run on the map.

How To Play It: Ma And Pa EACH WAY

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday’s Randwick meeting

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