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By Brad Gray

1. Osipenko has contested the Doncaster Handicap and George Ryder Stakes at his past two starts. That’s a depth of form line none of his rivals get even close to here. He wasn’t beaten far in both runs either. The son of Pierro looked well set up in the Doncaster two weeks ago but he couldn’t quicken on the heavy ground to get into the finish. Have got no doubt that Osipenko is the best horse in the race, and keen to see him out to 2000m for the first time, but it’s never as simple as that. He’s likely going to face another race affected surface on Saturday and recent history suggests that when the rail out 7m/4m at Randwick, it’s can often be fence friendly. Being the first race we’ll have no guide. Chris Waller has won three of the past five runnings of the Frank Packer Plate.

Dangers: 3. Pericles was also said to have not handled the testing heavy conditions in the ATC Derby. There was a query over him at 2400m going into that so back to 2000m looks to suit. He also has the chance to slide forward from the barrier to sit outside of the likely leader, 4. My Truth. The looks a significant tactical advantage over Osipenko. My Truth beings provincial form into this but he is two from two on heavy ground, if that’s what Saturday’s track throws up, and will make his own luck. Could be hard to catch. 2. Williamsburg has proven to be a couple of lengths behind the likes of Osipenko and Pericles in the past. It’s hard to make a case that he’ll turn the tables but he looks to be the best of the rest.

How To Play It: Osipenko WIN

8. Preemptory’s racing pattern brings luck into play but he has absolutely none of it in his handful of starts for Danny Williams. There’s a case to be made that he would’ve won his past three had the breaks gone his way at the right time. Despite being held up momentarily at Rosehill the last time we saw him at the races, the gelding charged home into second, just missing. Another stride and the Highway win belongs to him. The four-year-old is eight weeks between runs but he resumed off a similar break a couple of runs ago before running a luckless eighth behind Super Extreme over 1200m. The barrier should see Zac Lloyd settle much closer in the run. Only needs to see daylight in the straight to zip past these.

Dangers: 7. Lisztomania never got clear at Scone last start in a Wild Card Country Championships qualifier. It was a complete forget. Judge him off his Port Macquarie win prior to that. He gapped Optimo there. The gelding has already proved himself in Highway company too, finishing a narrow second back in June. 9. Chase My Crown is yet to win first up but she went close to changing that at big odds fresh last campaign. Possesses a big finish when everything falls into place for her. 4. Barradas maps to get the run of the race and can only improve off his second at Scone first up when second to Dollar Magic. Respect the upside of 15. Remlaps Commander and proven Highway performers 2. Super Extreme and stablemate 3. Salire but they face tasks from their respective barriers.

How To Play It: Preemptory WIN

The last time 5. Floating and James McDonald combined in a Midway Handicap, the pair put 3.5 lengths on their rivals. That was at Newcastle and the grey gelding did it in second gear too. It was a gap job. Arrogant. Floating resumed at Warwick Farm first up and should have won. He had to navigate a path through the field before going down in a cruel bob of the heads. Floating isn’t the quickest to muster from the gates but the draw should see McDonald hold a midfield position. On the strength of Floating’s form last preparation and the way he returned a couple of weeks ago, he’s the horse to beat. It just comes down to how short of a price you’re will to take as the early market certainly hasn’t missed him.

Dangers: 6. Miss Einstein is ready to win. The mare caught the eye in Midway company first up before improving on that second up, running second to Astero. She has proven herself equally effective on wet tracks in the past to the prospect of soft or heavy ground makes her even more appealing. 2. Pandano’s fourth in the Newcastle Stakes reads well for this. Not sure what happened to him last start at Muswellbrook but it’d be no surprise to see him bounce back in this company. 10. Conceited should land in a prominent position and given the lack of pressure on paper, get his chance to run better than his odds suggest. 11. Mayrose and 12. Speed Legend are both capable of better than what they produced last start while 14. Bundeena is still on the up.

How To Play It: Floating WIN

3. Opal Ridge was a touch flat second up in the PJ Bell Stakes compared to her brilliant first up win but respect that she jumped a firm favourite there. She also had the excuse of being shunted wide in the straight. Magic Time was travelling too well at the finish for that minor interference to make any difference but the market has been very quick to reassess the ability of both fillies. You have to take on trust that Opal Ridge can reproduce what she did fresh, but thought that was a superior win to the one Magic Time posted last start. The other thing in Opal Ridge’s favour is that she has finally drawn a barrier that can see her park up much closer than we’ve seen in her two runs back this time in. She’s versatile having won from outside of the leader in the past.

Dangers: That’s no knock on emerging talent 1. Magic Time. The daughter of Hellbent has only had three starts and was first up in the PJ Bell. The gamble is taking an odds on quote to see if she can repeat that. 8. Olentia was confidently backed when first markets went up and can see why, offering a different form line. She won on protest Hawkesbury first up, making it three wins from four starts. Also maps to find the fence and the back of the likely leader 7. Portray. 5. Sumatra’s PJ Bell run had hidden merit as she was held up at the top of the straight. 9. La Pattrice is a filly destined to skip through the grades while 2. Renaissance Woman comes into play if the race turns into a test late.

How To Play It: Opal Ridge WIN

6. Coal Crusher has been dictated to in his two runs back. That nullifies his strength. The ability to roll along at a clip before quickening in the straight. The five-year-old was excellent first up stalking the speed in what turned into a sprint home. It was then a similar case at Rosehill, forced to settle outside of the leader before he was grabbed on the line by Bacchanalia. Confident he can turn the tables on that runner, meeting him four kilograms better off, mapping to find the front and getting onto a wet track for the first time this campaign. That just takes the dash out of his rivals chasing. The final piece to the puzzle, and perhaps most significant of all, is the blinkers back on third up. There’s intent to be read into that. He’s ready.

Dangers: No arguments that 1. Vilana is the best horse in the race. His record and rating tell you that. He resumed last preparation with a brilliant win the Silver Eagle. A wide gate brought him undone in the Golden Eagle before he won The Hunter thereafter. His two trials back have been excellent. 10. Key Largo was deep ended in the G2 Challenge and G1 Galaxy most recently and he ran exceptionally well. This is a step back from that and he promises to be one of the strongest late again. The ever present 5. Gravina is seven weeks between runs but has trialled nicely on two occasions since then. 3. Bacchanalia is chasing three straight while the barrier will see 9. Waihaha Falls settle out the back.

How To Play It: Coal Crusher WIN

2. Sunshine Rising only has to hold his form to be in the finish again. The evergreen nine-year-old has placed in all three of his runs this time back. Want to trust that form around Zeyrek through the Sky High Stakes and Neville Sellwood. Sunshine Rising will need to turn the tables on 4. Protagonist from two starts ago but the margin was only narrow and Sunshine Rising was four weeks between runs going into that run. Then throw into the mix that Sunshine Rising comes off a subsequent second, where there was a gap to third, while Protagonist has to bounce back from a gut-busting run in the Doncaster where he failed to handle the testing going. The cherry on top for Sunshine Rising is Nash Rawiller sticking and the prospect of parking just in behind the speed. No excuses.

Dangers: 15. Quality Time has had two tune up runs in Melbourne ahead of this and he was a big winner third up last preparation. He went right on with it thereafter. Would love to see some intent out of the barriers. He swims too. 3. Mount Popa could be a sharp improver second up out to 2000m on a wet track. Forget where he finished in the Doncaster Prelude as it turned into a sprint home. He races well at Randwick too. There is terrific depth to the form lines of 6. Bankers Choice. He comes through the G1 Ranvet while the last time he saw a heavy track he touched up Atishu and Sirileo Miss. 5. Lion’s Roar maps to get a soft run, getting his chance to find the fence, while the same can’t be said for 7. Diamil but the latter is trending the right way.

How To Play It: Sunshine Rising WIN

The only curiosity around this race is why 2. Militarize isn’t an odds on chance in early betting. He annihilated his rivals in the Sires’ two weeks ago. That was on the back of a forgettable Golden Slipper outing where he was pulled put of the race having suffered interference from the fallen horse. Militarize was going further away from his rivals at the end of 1400m. His last 200m was two lengths faster than the next best in the race. And that was the runner up Don Corleone, who happens to be the second favourite in this. How does he turn the tables? Particularly from the barrier he has drawn. The Sires’ has produced 17 of the past 20 winners of the Champagne Stakes. Doubt that trend stops this year.

Dangers: 1. Don Corleone hasn’t missed much this season. He’ll have competed in all four two-year-old Group Ones this autumn after Saturday. Not sure how James McDonald plots a plan to beat Militarize, however. He brings the right form lines into this to grab another placing. 11. Pier Pressure came through a red hot midweek race behind Kimochi and Kristilli to run third in the Sires’ at big odds. Have got little doubt that she’ll come out and justify that it was no fluke. Maps nicely too. 5. Bases Loaded will give a sight if left alone in front.

How To Play It: Militarize WIN

1. Zaaki missed the first part of the autumn carnival with trainer Annabel Neasham unhappy with how the eight-year-old had come up. On the back of a recent Randwick trial, that’s all changed. He’s back on track. Zaaki has resumed twice at Randwick over 1400m recently and won both of those starts. Admittedly, neither were in Group One company against rivals of Saturday’s quality, but his fresh form over this track and trip isn’t the only thing he has in his favour. He also has tactical speed, which should see him settle a long way in front of his market danger Giga Kick, and a proven record of handling all ground. The wetter the better as it hinders the chances of many of his rivals more than it does him.

Dangers: No knock on 12. Giga Kick being favourite. He earns that on the back of a brilliant second in the TJ Smith behind I Wish I Win. On trial at 1400m but doubt that pulls him up. The niggle is how far back he is going to be forced to get from the gate. Japanese raider 7. Ho O Amazon has been targeted at this race due to his ability to get through wet ground. Don’t underestimate him.

How To Play It: Zaaki WIN

16. Cotehele on top in a race with a dozen chances. The four-year-old gets in with just 52kg after the claim and maps to get the lovely run in transit just in behind the speed. Thought he trialled exceptionally well at Randwick recently too, towing his jockey Reece Jones through the line. Jones sticks first up. There are queries, however. The prospect of a wet track is one of those. He handles it but has shown to be more effective on top of the ground. Then there is first up over 1400m and whether he feels the pinch late. He needed the run first up last campaign before winning second up. He had two trials ahead of last campaign as well, but only the one this time back. Still happy to be in his corner at an each way price.

Dangers: 3. Jojo Was A Man’s form suggests that he misfires second up but that’s a little deceptive. He loves Randwick and was fine first up in a sprint home over 1200m. 10. Lackeen was plain in the Newcastle Stakes last start. He has been freshened up since then with a Randwick trial behind Cotehele. The six-year-old was a third up winner last preparation, maps to jump straight in behind the speed and handles all going. You wonder whether 5. Military Expert would even run first up on a heavy track first up. Soft has been fine for him in the past. He was Group One placed last campaign in the Toorak and love the way he has trialled ahead of his return. He’s had three of them. 12. Tamerlane has claims but surely won’t get as easy a time up front as last start. Big watch on gelded import 14. Glounthaune while expect 4. Brutality to do what he does best.

How To Play It: Cotehele WIN

If 9. Democracy Manifest can hold any kind of spot from his draw, he should be too strong late. That’s the gamble though because he hasn’t been the best of beginners in the past. That was again on display in his two trials ahead of his return. What he has been though, is an explosive fresh horse. His first up record reads 4:3-1-0. Wet or dry, the track conditions won’t bother him either. The gelding held his form all preparation last time in and has a strong SP profile, always respected by the market. This isn’t any harder than the races he fought out the finish in last campaign. There looks to be enough speed on paper for him to get his chance. Like the way he poked home in a recent Rosehill trial where Joao Moreira got a feel for the four-year-old.

Dangers: 3. The Face will be driven out to hold the front from the low gate and pressure pending from wider draws, should give a sight. His Bacchanalia form reads well for this, coming back in grade. Won’t want it too wet. Monitor how the track is playing up until this point. 13. Super Helpful charged to the line at Albury last start. A wet track won’t bother him. He shouldn’t be underestimated at odds in this company. 15. The Poacher didn’t look to get a strong 1400m last start at Newcastle. His two runs prior were great, with excuses hiding their respective merit. Just needs to prove himself on wet ground. 1. Maotai kept chasing at Rosehill last start but the leader got it too easy in front. He lost no admirers for that. The barrier looks problematic here, however.

How To Play It: Democracy Manifest WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting