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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $1 million Winx Stakes (1400m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. Buckaroo (Chris Waller): It’s fair to say this import has underachieved since he arrived in Australia last year but it could be a different ball game now that he’s been gelded. Clearly his best form is over further than 1400m and with a bit more give in the track than he’s likely to get but he showed in his second trial he’s tracking the right way. Ran fifth in the Apollo behind Fangirl first-up in the autumn. Couldn’t have him as a winning chance at this trip but interested to see how he performs.

2. Detonator Jack (Ciaron Maher): What we know about this gelding is that he rarely runs a bad race and that’s continued as he’s worked his way up to this level. That said he’s a hard one to line up at Group 1 WFA over this trip. On one hand the 1400m fresh is great for him and he can put himself somewhere near what doesn’t look to be a strong speed. On the other he hasn’t met the likes of Fangirl and company at WFA before. It wouldn’t shock if he’s a top four player.

Just Fine (Pic: Steve Hart)

3. Zeyrek (Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes): So far proven he’s not up to WFA at any distance range so this will be just a starting point for him. Latest win was in the Craven Plate last October at 2000m, first-up at 1400m in the autumn he beat two home in the Newcastle Stakes. He is the type of horse that can surprise at times but prefer to see what he does.

4. Just Fine (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Last year’s Metropolitan winner who didn’t seem to come up in the autumn as he failed to run a place in two starts. He does appear to have returned in order looking at his trials which is a positive sign, whether he can be effective at 1400m is the big question mark. He did win at a mile at his Australian debut but not in this sort of company. Another whose run will be noted for the future.

5. Riff Rocket (Chris Waller): A star three-year-old stepping out at four at WFA is always interesting and it’d be wise not to dismiss him given his record. He carried 59.5kg to win at 1400m first-up at Flemington in the autumn on his way to winning the Australian Derby so he can be sharp at the trip. The map looks the biggest worry, in a race where they probably won’t go warp speed up front he’ll likely drift out to last from the outside gate. If he runs over the top of them then he could be anything this spring.

6. Fangirl (Chris Waller): Won this race last year with a strong burst and made a mess of them in the King Charles III on Everest Day. Her autumn was cut short through injury but she did win the Apollo first-up in a canter at this trip. Her trials have been on the quiet side but that’s standard – she’s never won a trial in her life. She does tend to get back a little in her races but impossible to knock given the likely conditions will favour her and she has to be considered the horse to beat.

7. Via Sistina (Chris Waller): On face value you’d have to say 1400m should be too short for this classy import. She’s only raced at the trip once in her life and that was on debut. Like Fangirl her trials have been pretty easy ones so it’s hard to judge her on them. Her reputation is huge though, winning the Ranvet on local debut before starting $1.85 in the Queen Elizabeth, so you’d have to say she will run well here with improvement to come. And like Riff Rocket if she comes out on top it’s an ominous sign for the spring.

8. Atishu (Chris Waller): Can she be effective at 1400m from the back of this field? In the autumn she took a run at the trip before winning second-up at a mile and she opened last spring at 1200m before improving. Her overall record is very good and she’s been a consistent performer at the top level for a couple of seasons now and appears to have come back okay looking at her work in the second trial. She’s going to hit the line well, that’s for sure.

9. Zougotcha (Chris Waller): After an unbeaten autumn where she confirmed that she’s a 1400m-mile horse she’s the one of the stablemates that appears the big danger to Fangirl. She has some tactical ability and should be in front of at least half the field if not more in the run from a middle gate. While last spring was a wipeout as she was trained as a sprinter, the spring before she was unbeaten winning the three legs of the Princess Series she contested. Serious contender.

Zougotcha (Pic: Bradley Photos)

10. Semana (Ciaron Maher): Is the shorter break the factor that will give her a chance of turning the tables on a couple mares who got the better of her in the Group 1 autumn features? Beaten by a star when runner-up in the Tatt’s Tiara back on June 29 and looked on the sharp side winning a trial less than two weeks ago. She can use the draw and be not too far away and she’d be an each-way chance.

11. Tropical Squall (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): We know what to expect from this underrated mare, she likes to roll to the front and will get that opportunity from a wide gate with the make up of the field suggesting she’s the only natural leader. She held the fillies off over the 1400m at Randwick first-up last prep to win the Surround then wasn’t disgraced taking on the older mares in the Coolmore and Queen Of The Turf. She’s trialled up strongly and will be hard to run down if she gets control of the tempo.

12. Zardozi (James Cummings): In all likelihood she’ll find the 1400m a bit sharp first-up but it’s not a complete given. In the autumn she only beat one home at the trip in the Surround fresh but it was won by the leader and few positions changed in the run home, then she won second-up at 1500m. Led her latest trial before being nabbed on the line by Tom Kitten. Can run a cheeky race fresh but naturally will improve.

SPEED MAP: It's hard to imagine anything other than Tropical Squall leading, she'll work across and assume the front. Underneath her there isn't anything that should have the speed to match her early at 1400m. Zougotcha, Detonator Jack and Just Fine (perhaps to a lesser extent at the trip) can land in the group behind the leader. Fangirl could use Tropical Squall to get across from her slightly tricky draw, though has tended to settle back in her races, and Semana is the other horse that can settle in the first half without too much trouble. Not expecting a strong tempo.

SELECTIONS:
6 FANGIRL
9 Zougotcha
11 Tropical Squall
7 Via Sistina

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Randwick meeting