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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $20 million TAB Everest (1200m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. I Wish I Win (Peter Moody & Katherine Coleman/Trackside Media NZ): Runner-up in the Everest last year after a less than conventional lead up for a 1200m race, having tackled it second-up with a six week gap after a 1400m run. This year he’s raced twice, both at Moonee Valley, and hit the line strongly (as you’d expect) from well back over 1000m then into third in the 1200m Manikato. You could say barrier one didn’t really help his cause in 2023 and he has the gate that lends itself to his sweeping style of finish. The blinkers go back on for the Everest and if the predicted tempo materialises then he’ll be hard to hold out as he looks to have had the perfect build up.

I Wish I Win (Pic: Bradley Photos)

2. Giga Kick (Clayton Douglas/Pinecliff Racing): The 2022 champion from this race but missed his chance at a defence with a year on the sidelines through injury. His two runs back this spring have been pass marks if you’re being really harsh. He looked big first-up, blew significantly in the market and held his ground after a wide run. In the Premiere, which tackled tempo, he had the one-one trail, went a bit flat footed, then surged a bit late to be beaten under a length. Ideal stalking draw for him about midfield and if he does have that length or so improvement to come he’s right in the game.

3. Private Eye (Joe Pride/Max Whitby, Neil Werrett & Col Madden): Placed in the last two editions of the Everest and luck in running will be his biggest enemy or his greatest friend. He’d jumped well in both runs back but has conceded that good start by going back, most significantly in the Shorts where he was still going back (and wide) nearing the 600m. You can’t win sprint races doing that. His subsequent trial was good and in reality both his performances in isolation have been excellent. Notification that he’ll be going forward from barrier 10 means he’ll need some breaks but he did sit three wide midfield without cover when running third last year. He’s good enough so don’t undersell him.

4. Bella Nipotina (Ciaron Maher/TAB): They don’t come a lot tougher or more consistent that this mare who has always been smart but in the past 12 months or so she’s established herself as one of the nation’s best sprinters. Her two runs since the winter have shown she’s on target with a flashing second to stablemate I Am Me in the Concorde then a somewhat unlucky third in the Premiere two weeks ago. You can’t fault her on the score of form. You can have some doubts given she’s jumping from the outside gate but in her favour in that regard is that she’s versatile. If we happen to be a soft 6 or worse her stocks soar too. Impossible to think anything but she’s a good chance.

5. I Am Me (Ciaron Maher/The Star & Arrowfield): It’s been a steady climb from this mare who started her career at Goulburn, won her first couple of races at Canberra and Ballarat but came of age at the start of last season winning the Missile and the Sydney Stakes. This preparation she’s been excellent winning the Concorde and The Shorts where she’s been able to take advantage of inside gates. That’s her big asset coming into the Everest, she’ll have the box seat run you’d imagine and Nash probably looks to save her for a burst as she’s just lacked that little bit at the end of her past few 1200m Group 1 assignments.

6. Stefi Magnetica (Bjorn Baker/Newgate & GPI Racing): There’s a good case to be made that she should have won the Shorts when resuming almost a month ago and that commands a lot of respect. Her tickover trial was okay, she did appear to be niggled a bit but perhaps that’s due to the winner of the trial (who won at Kembla last weekend) running along a bit. The middle gate is a win for her, as she showed in the Surround earlier this year she can take up a position from a good barrier and she’s very much a horse on the way up.

7. Sunshine In Paris (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald/Fairway Thoroughbreds): Would have contested this race last year but was sidelined through injury after she won the Sheraco Stakes. Performed well in the autumn, with her best effort a close second in the Galaxy on a good track whereas she wasn’t quite as effective (though still good) on heavy. Won the Sheraco again first-up, doing quite a good job to run down Mumbai Muse and like many coming off a few weeks she’s had that tickover trial. She ties in okay out of her fifth in the TJ Smith earlier this year, finishing not far from Bella Nipotina, just wondering if the mares lead in is the right form. That’d be the only query.

8. Joliestar (Chris Waller/Chris Waller Racing): Announced herself as a TAB Everest contender with a runaway win in the Show County back in late August. Last year’s winner of that race Buenos Noches finished midfield in the Everest. She raced three weeks later and either didn’t handle the 58kg and a fast run race in the Sheraco or was just a bit flat. No real sign from her tickover trial of an answer to that. She did start $1.80 in the Sheraco against Sunshine In Paris at $3.80. That last start was probably her worst performance, although it wasn’t a failure as such, but she does excel when fresh. If she gets a set up like she did in the Show County she’ll relish it. Same query on that mares race as the right form.

9. Growing Empire (Ciaron Maher/Yulong Investments): Promising colt who measured right up at his first attempt at Group 1 level with a game effort in the Manikato Stakes, run down in the shadows by his stablemate. Hard to know where his level is at the moment, he’ll not likely be leading this race unless the lead is put up for grabs but he’s arguably been at his best with something to chase down. He’s 1kg worse off against I Wish I Win who was two lengths behind him at the Valley. Has to be a good chance because we just don’t know how good he is yet.

10. Traffic Warden (James Cummings/Godolphin): Two three-year-olds have won the TAB Everest, Giga Kick brought form from the south into his win while Yes Yes Yes contested the same two races as this colt did in the lead up to his win in 2019. Unlike Yes Yes Yes, won the Run To The Rose before he was just touched out by stablemate Broadsiding in the Golden Rose. Three weeks and back to 1200m is a great formula and he’s drawn perfectly for him in gate two. Jamie Kah rode him to his VRC Sires win and Inglis Sires’ second placing. Brings the A1 three-year-old form into the race and that makes him very dangerous and potentially Godolphin’s best chance to date.

Storm Boy (Pic: Steve Hart).

11. Storm Boy (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Coolmore): Undoubtedly holds the key to entire race shape, his own chances and the chances of many of his rivals. If he breaks with them you’d expect him to find the lead as he’s done in all three runs this spring. He just kept going in the San Domenico first up while he had to do a lot more work in the Run To The Rose and Golden Rose but was still beaten under a length in both. If he doesn’t get away with them he could find himself in a lot of trouble with some potential speed drawn wider out to cut him off. Also has that proven Everest three-year-old formlines. Massive take on trust proposition who could give a huge sight and go close or be an also ran.

12. Lady Of Camelot (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/Go Bloodstock & James Harron Bloodstock): The Golden Slipper winner has no doubt come back in good order this spring but she’s awfully hard to line up in some ways. She was solid in the Moir first-up, boxing on well for third, then didn’t have a good set up in the Shorts where she was badly suited at the weights, raced wide and didn’t get the chance to get comfortable at all. Still only beaten 2-3/4 lengths so it was definitely not a failure. Nice trial win since. Where does gate 11 leave her? If she gets away okay probably outside her stablemate but no doubt somewhere on the speed. Two previous Slipper winners have contested this race and finished unplaced. Probably needs everything to go right but can’t put a line through her.

SPEED MAP: There's no doubt Storm Boy is the key player as far as speed goes. If he gets away cleanly enough and can muster unimpeded he'll likely find the front. Private Eye has already been notified as going forward, don't know that he contests the lead but it puts some early pressure on Lady Of Camelot and Growing Empire drawn around him to show some early intent. You'd imagine the inside alleys afford I Am Me and Traffic Warden nice early runs and Giga Kick can land midfield without much work. From the outside gate it'll be interesting to see what Craig Williams does with Bella Nipotina.

SELECTIONS:
10 TRAFFIC WARDEN
1 I Wish I Win
2 Giga Kick
11 Storm Boy

All the fields, form and replays for TAB Everest Day at Royal Randwick