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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Saturday's Group 1 $1.5 million Epsom Handicap (1600m) at Royal Randwick.

1. My Oberon (Annabel Neasham): Appears to bring the right form into an Epsom with a nice first-up effort behind Pericles then having third snatched from him on the line by Fangirl in the weight-for-age 7 Stakes. He did run second in the Doncaster Mile earlier this year and only rises 2kg. A bit hit and miss in his first couple of local preps but those two solid runs together suggest he’s heading the right way this preparation. The barrier is naturally a problem but given he’s generally a backmarker he’ll likely drift back and look to find the right horse to follow into the race. With luck he’s one of the leading contenders and a touch over the odds.

2. Pericles (SCRATCHED).

3. The Inevitable (John Keys): It’s been four years since the Tasmanian star won the Silver Eagle at Randwick and contested the Golden Eagle and in that time he hasn’t won outside his home state. But he has run some big races, especially recently, with a third in the All Star Mile and his first-up second in the Theo Marks where he thundered home to just miss. With six wins, a second and a third from his last eight starts he’s absolutely flying and he now just has to run out the Randwick mile. Has the racing pattern that will see him midfield at best and with even luck will have his chance.

The Inevitable (Pic: Sharon Lee Chapman).

4. Going Global (Chris Waller): Fair to say she hasn’t yet lived up to what was expected of her coming from the USA but she has only had three starts here. All three at Randwick and we’ll probably forgive the Doncaster run on the heavy track. This prep she has been beaten under three lengths both times but hasn’t attacked the line that a horse about to win a Group 1. Expect she’ll probably lead or be right up there, but can’t be enthusiastic on what we’ve seen.

5. Converge (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): It’s been a while between wins but that last victory did come over the Randwick mile in the Guineas of 2022. His dry track form is pretty consistent and last season he recorded Group 1 placings behind Anamoe and Think About It at weight-for-age so we know he is capable of a big performance at the top level. Carried 59kg first-up and was ridden near the speed when resuming in the Bill Ritchie and will appreciate dropping the 4kg. But he only meets the winner 1kg better for a two length margin. Think he’s best when covered up and allowed to charge at them. Each-way chance.

6. Golden Mile (James Cummings): Shrugged off a run of zeroes or near-zeroes when things finally went his way in the Theo Marks, gaining a rails run and sprinting before holding on from The Inevitable who was closing on him. He is a Group 1 winner over a mile but is he really a miler? That’s the big question and from an outside gate he’ll need to be one to win an Epsom. Rather go around him but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he featured somewhere in the finish.

7. Kirwan’s Lane (John O’Shea): Won the Ingham (ex-Villiers) last summer over this course and that’s a fairly good guide to his chance in an Epsom. Wasn’t at his best in the autumn but his two runs back have been okay for a horse looking for the mile under handicap conditions. Drops 4.5kg on his midfield finish in the Shannon last week where he warmed up okay there late. Whether he’s a winning chance not so sure but another who is more than capable of finding himself in the frame somewhere on his best efforts.

8. Hope In Your Heart (Kerry Parker): Nobody missed her run in the Tramway when she had to duck and weave through the pack from well back and claim third behind Pericles. Blinkers go on and if they help her find a length that might be enough to get her across the line. She did run fourth in the Doncaster in the autumn on a heavy track from barrier 20 and was beaten just over a length. A middle gate is ideal for her and in the absence of Pericles, who was early favourite, she’s entitled to be the horse to beat if she can land in a reasonable position.

9. Diamil (John O’Shea): Didn’t fire a shot first-up from a wide gate going back to last in the Tramway before taking on weight-for-age in the 7 Stakes. Didn’t make any ground on the horse he followed into the straight which is some concern but he is better suited in a handicap. Won the JRA Plate here third-up last preparation at 2000m off better lead up performances. Barrier gives him a shot at an easy run but need to see more from him.

10. Kovalica (Chris Waller): Big drifter in betting first-up in the Theo Marks and ran accordingly, while 1300m is short of his best he didn’t run through the line as you’d expect. Add to that The Inevitable, also first-up, put a few lengths on him as they made their runs together. But am very wary of him. He did trial okay last week with Joao Moriera in the saddle and the stable continues to talk positively about the horse. He’s three from three at the mile and unbeaten second-up though none of those were Group 1s but if he is in the sort of shape to have glowing reports from the trainer then it’s worth keeping in mind. Must take him on trust but have him right in the mix.

11. Nugget (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): Thought he had his chance first-up in the Theo Marks, landing in a good spot but didn’t quite run up to the support as he held his ground to finish fourth. Naturally will be fitter and all his best form is around a mile including a third in the Doncaster earlier this year. Where does he get to from the barrier? In a race lacking obvious speed do they chance the hand and roll forward to find a spot? He jumped from 19 in the Doncaster so it’s not beyond him.

12. Pounding (Peter Moody & Katherine Coleman): A different form line into the mix. Certainly he’s shaped up well in his two runs since a third in the Australian Cup at 2000m and does have Mr Brightside in his recent form. Ran on well enough in the Feehan second-up at a mile so will like getting down to 54kg and that gives him his chance. Probably around the right price in the mid-teens and is an each-way hope.

13. Communist (Michael Freedman): Shapes as a big improver now he’s finally drawn a barrier to put himself into a race. He’s drawn wide in both runs back and stayed out there so it’s a bit hard to get a line on how he’s travelling but he’s been kept fresh for this and worked home in a 1200m trial last week to switch back on. Last win was in this year’s Randwick Guineas and he did start $18 in the Doncaster. If he does find his best form he could easily be in the finish.

14. Duke De Sessa (SCRATCHED).

Democracy Manifest (Pic: Bradley Photos)

15. Madame Pommery (Chris Waller): Promising return with a close second to Pericles but perhaps coming back 100m was against her in the Theo Marks as she could only manage eighth and didn’t really make an impact from four back on the fence. Both her wins have come on heavy tracks so does she need more give in the ground to be a chance at this level? Her first-up run suggests otherwise but she’ll still need everything to go her way given she’ll likely give a start away from her wide gate.

16. Democracy Manifest (Chris Waller): This time last year he went around on the public holiday Monday meeting in a Benchmark 78 and missed a place at $1.90. Come a long way obviously to land in a Group 1 but he won his ticket with a dominant display, and clever ride, from last in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle. He’s come up with the inside draw so that sees him probably buried back on the fence midfield or worse and relying on luck. Won an open handicap over this course three starts back in June so this is a big step but last start has him in the conversation.

17. Rediener (Chris Waller): Another horse who has made some quick strides to reach this race given he won a Benchmark 68 on Anzac Day. Enjoyed a perfect run and sprinted away in his easy first-up win in the Bill Ritchie, which can be a reliable Epsom guide at times, and is likely to have the advantage of an economical run somewhere near the speed again. Is he good enough? That’s the question but with 50kg and that draw will have every chance to find out.

18. Barbie’s Fox (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): Bit of a throw at the stumps at another Group 1, she did contest the Thousand Guineas at three and Coolmore Classic at four. Beat Hosier and Steely in the Winter Challenge and on face value that’s not good enough to win an Epsom. She was okay late in the Bill Ritchie but meets the winner of that race on the same weight terms. Draws to get every chance but a win would surprise.

19. Waterford (Chris Waller): If he backs up from his third placing in the Shannon Stakes last week he’ll attract some attention but still has that backmarker profile to overcome. From one of the outside barriers he’ll have to go back and rely on being able to sweep home. He was good first-up in the Theo Marks so no doubt he’s come back in good order but his last win was in a Benchmark 78 almost a year ago.

20. Olentia (SCRATCHED).

21. Williamsburg (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): Seen worse 50/1 chances that this four-year-old who backs up after a close second in the Shannon last week. Key to his hopes is his ability to sit close to the pace and from gate three you’d imagine he’s right behind whoever leads. Last win was over this course in the Dulcify at this meeting last year beating Communist on a heavy track. If there’s a big upset he could be it.

22E. Political Debate (Chris Waller): Had every hope in the run last start in the Bill Ritchie and was very one paced finishing midfield. Only win was in Brisbane as a two-year-old and even though the blinkers go on he has his work cut out from the extreme outside.

SPEED MAP: This is a tricky one with no noted leaders and just a few regular on pacers. Possibly Going Global finds the lead, Golden Mile may have the chance to come across from out wide and the likes of Williamsburg, Rediener and Communist can take up forward positions. Unless there are significant changes of tactics we could be in for a slowly run Epsom but at the same time with 18-20 runners you'd think some speed will be generated.

SELECTIONS:
8 HOPE IN YOUR HEART
13 Communist
3 The Inevitable
1 My Oberon

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting