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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Saturday's Group 1 $4 million The Star Doncaster Mile (1600m) at Royal Randwick.

1. Another Wil (Ciaron Maher): Started favourite in this race last year on the back of a Doncaster Prelude win and is up 6.5kg. Fair to say 12 months on he’s gone up a notch or two with a Group 1 weight-for-age win in the Orr, running down two-time Doncaster champ Mr Brightside, and he was unlucky when almost falling in the All Star Mile and did a good job to pick back up and run fourth. He drew wide last year but with a bit of speed drawn around him there’s a chance he gets into a reasonable spot. More than capable of winning with the right run.

2. Gringotts (Ciaron Maher): This time a year ago he was winning a Benchmark 88 but he’s continued to rise with wins in the Big Dance and The Gong under big weights in the spring. Then this campaign he should have won first-up and he graduated to weight-for-age downing Fangirl and Ceolwulf in the George Ryder. Drops 3.5kg on that. He’s the type that can make some use of a good which looks tailor made for him just off the fence and there’s a chance he’s not yet reached his best. It would be a surprise if he’s not somewhere in the finish.

Gringotts (Pic: Bradley Photos).

3. Tom Kitten (James Cummings): He’s had his fans and his detractors but there’s no doubt this season he’s been a model of consistency in some of the biggest races around. Turned the tables on Mr Brightside in the All Star Mile and he was very game in the Ryder after taking the medicine and going back from a wide gate. He was beaten 1-1/2 lengths and closed off the race perfectly from a Doncaster point of view. He’ll need to have his wits about him early from gate one but how can you deny him a big chance.

4. Geoglyph (Tetsuya Kimura): Japanese galloper whose form is a bit hard to line up and a bit patchy though we all know the quality of racing over there. Four starts back he was beaten just over three lengths by Romantic Warrior over a mile at Group 1 level so that’s a pretty strong form reference. Ran well in a Breeders Cup Mile in America but was a shade disappointing at his last run back in Japan. Damian Lane has a big job from outside barrier and while it would take a big performance to win if he happened to produce something like his best he could surprise.

5. Pericles (James Cummings): Runner-up in this race last year as a $41 chance and he jumped from a similar sort of gate so that’s no major issue. Found his race in the spring when winning the Five Diamonds and his two runs back have been sound without screaming Doncaster winner. Drops 4kg on his fourth in the Ajax and is not without an each-way chance peaking third-up.

6. Militarize (Chris Waller): Beaten just one home in both runs since returning from a failed gig as a stallion. Did a bit of early work, though not too much, to land outside the lead in the Ryder before conceding ground in the straight. Ran third in this race last year as a colt and while he know he’s good enough on his best form it might take him this prep to get back in the swing of it. Draws to get his chance and only up 1kg on last year so the platform is there if he can lift.

7. Royal Patronage (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Brilliant Canterbury Stakes winner first-up and while he had his chance in the Ryder, after finding the lead comfortably, he did go down fighting by under a length to Gringotts. Meets him 1kg better here. We know what to expect from him, he’ll roll forward from his wide gate and could very well lead if he doesn’t sit just on the pace. Drew wide in the Epsom and was a game third to Ceolwulf there and he does look to have come back a better horse. Not to be discounted.

8. Stefi Magnetica (Bjorn Baker): Didn’t have any luck first-up and that run can be easily forgiven. Thought she had every chance in the Ryder sitting just behind the speed but she didn’t dash as she can do and just boxed away. Her last win was third-up when she took out the Stradbroke and she was third-up in her luckless fifth in the Golden Eagle so she could be ready to put in her best run of the campaign here. That gives her some chance.

9. Anisette (Chris Waller): Former American mare who has won three Group 1 races among her seven wins from 13 starts. Safely held in the Breeders Cup last time out. We’ve seen her once locally at the trials and was happy to follow them around behind some classy sprinters over a trip way too short for her so it was more an exercise than a pointer of any kind. Barrier creates a problem and she’s never been in a field of this size before. Probably and watch and see prospect.

10. Moira (Chris Waller): Another American addition to the Waller camp and she comes with a loftier reputation being a last start Group 1 winner at the Breeders Cup meeting. She’s also not seen a field of this sort of size in her 17 starts and has that wide barrier to deal with as well. Interestingly four of her seven wins have been on synthetic tracks. Feel she faces a task but worth keeping an eye on – remember Zaaki made his Oz debut in a Doncaster and caught the eye.

11. Just Folk (Gavin Bedggood): Fair to say he had conditions to suit him on Tuesday as he ran them off their feet in the Doncaster Prelude at Rosehill. That was his eighth wet track win so he’ll need some give to remain in the track to have his best chance. One of his two good track wins was last year’s Hawkesbury Cup. He will roll forward and likely find the fence first, whether he leads will depend on what happens wider out from him. Probably finds this too tough.

12. Celestial Legend (Les Bridge): He’s not been the same horse since he won this race a year ago in exciting fashion with 49kg on his back. Up 5kg and the blinkers come off. Failed to beat one home in the Ryder and again didn’t really show anything first-up in the Canterbury Stakes. Whether he needs a wet track now is one theory as to why he’s not shown up lately but he did win his Randwick Guineas on a good track. Or, he’s just not come up. You’ll get big odds to find out.

13. Kovalica (Chris Waller): We’re closing on 700 days since his last win, the Queensland Derby of 2023, but he has run some handy races in the interim. Finished midfield in this race last year and has run second and fourth in the past two Epsoms so a strong Randwick mile is the type of race than can bring the best out in him. He’ll be giving a start from that gate but is fitter for an even run in the Ryder. Have to take him on trust.

14. Port Lockroy (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): Sent out $101 and ran well without really standing out in the Ryder first-up off one trial. Up half a kilogram on his Group 1 win at Ascot late last year in the Railway and this is no doubt a stronger race. It wouldn’t surprise if he beats more home than beats him but can’t entertain as a winning hope.

15. Al Mubhir (William Haggas): Impossible to get a line on him as he clearly didn’t handle the occasion in the Ranvet Stakes at his first Australian start. Raced keenly and dropped out to be well beaten. Back home he’s not been tested at the top level and he’s notched a Listed win and a couple of stakes placings. The 6kg drop in weight will be a plus but he has to turn things around sharply.

16. New Energy (Ciaron Maher): Promised a lot when he debuted in Australia last autumn with a slashing Liverpool City Cup second placing but he’s been quite enigmatic since then. One win in the Eclipse Stakes over 1800m on a heavy track his only other podium finish. Was given a pretty good ride considering his outside gate in the Ajax first-up but failed to beat one home. He’s capable of rebounding but requires a bit of faith in him to make a case.

Linebacker (Pic: Bradley Photos).

17. Iowna Merc (Bjorn Baker): Not that long ago it looked like 1200m would pull him up but he’s continued to defy expectation with his win in the Ajax Stakes up to 1500m to force his way into this race. Drops 5.5kg but the barrier will make things a bit tougher for him. Despite a negative or two it’s hard to discount him completely because he’s continued to race well regardless of the test put in front of him.

18. Encap (Gary Portelli): It was some performance from him on Tuesday in the Doncaster Prelude, he was well off the pace on the turn and warmed up late to run into fourth in ground he’s not overly fond of. Draws well in three so he’ll get plenty of cover and did run a nice third in the Ingham, dropping 3.5kg in this. It wouldn’t be a big shock if he ran into the placings somewhere as he has form around a lot of his rivals.

19. Firestorm (Chris Waller): Put the writing on the wall that she’s come back nicely with a first-up win over 1300m then backed that up with a slashing second to Lady Shenandoah in the Coolmore where she charged to just miss behind the star filly. Ticked over with a trial since then and gets in with just 50kg. She’s a better horse this prep than the one that contested the Epsom and with good speed engaged gets her chance to pounce late.

20. Linebacker (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): Randwick Guineas winner in what was a comprehensive win given he sat on a hot tempo and fended them off with the form behind him standing up in the Rosehill Guineas. Drops to 49kg, the same weight as last year’s winner, and he’s a month between runs by design. Given a good hitout to win a recent trial and drawn pretty well around the middle. Just needs to back up that Guineas performance, and no reason to think he won’t, to be hard to beat.

21E. Rise At Dawn (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): Has built a solid record of eight wins from 14 starts and stepped up to weight-for-age with an even effort after leading the All Star Mile. Seems to be some confidence from the camp that he can be a big chance if he gets a start, he’s drawn well and has just 51kg and is on the way up. Suggest he’s a place chance if he’s here.

SPEED MAP: The two major speed influences are Royal Patronage, drawn wide, and Just Folk who jumps from a middle gate. Rise At Dawn, if he gains a start, will race handy too. Gringotts draws to land on the back of the speed and Linebacker and Iowna Merc are first six contenders early. Pericles and Another Wil have decisions from their wide gates with both capable of pushing on to a degree. Imagine the imports Moira and Anisette go back, but check for notices on race day. Should be a genuinely run Randwick mile.

SELECTIONS:
19 FIRESTORM
2 Gringotts
20 Linebacker
3 Tom Kitten

All the fields, form and replays for Day 1 of The Star Championships at Randwick