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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the inaugural $500,000 Wyong Leagues Group The Lakes (1600m) at Wyong on Saturday. Comments made with the expectation of a soft track to some degree.

1. Robusto (Bjorn Baker): Hard to fault the way he’s racing of late, making the transition to stakes company highlighted by his win in the $2m The Ingham over the Randwick mile. The barrier and a good ride aided him that day but there’s every chance he finds a similar race. Game effort up in Queensland in his latest start after sitting second and boxing on strongly to hold that position when back to 1400m. A soft track holds no fears, he does have to give weight away but he should get a nice run behind a genuine tempo and he’s simply going too well to ignore.

Robusto (Pic: Steve Hart)

2. Osipenko (Chris Waller): Could a breakthrough be imminent? It’s been some 636 days since his win in the Frank Packer Plate of 2023 but certainly in his last two starts there are signs that he’s swinging back into form. Caught the eye running into seventh in The Ingham before looking the winner only to be nabbed by Tavi Time in the last couple of bounds out to 2000m in the Summer Cup. The wide gate isn’t so much a concern as he’s been effective in those two runs from forward and back and it’ll come down to what the tactics are. Has to be included.

3. Palmetto (John Sargent): More than capable on his day though you’d have liked to see him hit the line or at least hold his ground a bit better first-up at 1400m a few weeks ago. He did get caught wide there so was entitled to battle a bit so there’s a case to say he can improve. His best is good enough evidenced by wins in the Five Diamonds Prelude and in The Coast, and some give in the ground is not going to harm his chances. It’s a take on trust situation but would surprise nobody if he lifts sharply.

4. St Lawrence (Ciaron Maher): This will be the 11th start in a preparation that goes back to late April but he’s enjoying having his runs spaced. Was a month between runs into his win in the Little Dance and has been kept on the fresh side since the Festival Stakes where he ran sixth but he was far from disgraced. He stepped away a bit slowly and found himself well back on the turn and made some ground without threatening. Private Eye did win by a big space and it was definitely a forgive run. Tickover trial since then and is entitled to another chance.

5. Coastwatch (SCRATCHED).

6. Junipal (Ciaron Maher): A campaign up north has worked wonders with this nine-year-old who won successive races in October and has been around the mark since then. Weighed in light two starts back and then was game beaten narrowly in a Listed mile at Eagle Farm three weeks ago. In his favour here are a soft barrier and the sting out of the track so he’d have to be considered an each-way chance.

7. Waterford (Chris Waller): He’s the type of horse who could knock these over without shocking anybody and he’s certainly been game without winning in some strong races of late. Got close first-up in the Alan Brown, started $3.50 in the Little Dance and 62kg and getting back didn’t help him, ran on well in The Gong and didn’t get all the luck in The Ingham beaten only four lengths. They had a shot at 2000m last time and he didn’t run it out. Last four wins have been at Rosehill and a mile is probably as far as he wants but you wouldn’t put it past him to sweep home.

8. Almania (Kris Lees): Returns from an injury enforced break after just the one run last time in. We’ll forgive him that and while 2000m is probably more his go he did show in his previous preparation that he’s effective at Listed and Group 3 level over that extended trip. Just the one trial leading in and his form says he’ll be better second and third-up so he’s probably one to keep an eye on for later in the preparation.

9. Spangler (Kris Lees): Fitter for two runs back since a 12 month break. His first-up effort on The Hunter day was excellent against the pattern of the day then tackled The Ingham and was always well back though he did still run on okay. Tackled the same trial as his stablemate just under two weeks ago, running into second placing. Faces having to give away a start again from a wide gate but if the track stays on the soft side, or slides into heavy, he’ll relish it and a run on pattern would bring him into the discussion on his best form.

10. Touristic (Peter Snowden): Staying type resuming without a public trial and while his record says he’ll appreciate both more ground and a run or two the prospect of at least soft ground means he’s worth a bit of a look. He has run well without filling a placing when fresh in the past and the possibility of a strong tempo would allow him to run on. A place wouldn’t shock but granted he will improve on whatever he does.

11. Geriatrix (SCRATCHED).

Redbreast (Pic: Steve Hart)

12. Redbreast (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Front-running mare who will likely hold the key to how this race is run and if last start is any guide it could be brutal up front. She opened a huge lead in the middle stages of the Belle Of The Turf over this course and did a big job to fight on and hold second, even giving the winner Konasana work to do to keep her at bay late. Expect from that inside gate she bounds to the lead and makes things interesting.

13. Highlights (Bjorn Baker): Taken a couple of runs to find his form this time in but showed improvement in a close finish when third at 1400m at Randwick three weeks ago. Tends to do his best when right on the speed so he’ll probably land in second place and that should give him his chance so long as he doesn’t have to do too much carrying the field up to the leader. He tends to hold form when he strikes it so he’s in the mix.

14. Super Helpful (Barbara Joseph, Paul and Matt Jones): Honest type who often flies under the radar and his placing in the 2023 Big Dance tells you he’s up to this sort of level. Carried 61.kg to victory in the Nowra Cup at his latest start so gets a huge weight drop and a soft track would really be in his favour. A month between runs is probably the major negative but he’s drawn to get a nice enough run and has an each-way show.

SPEED MAP: Redbreast is the noted leader in the field and she has a real running style that could open the field up a bit, especially if last start is any guide. Highlights enjoys racing on the speed and will get that chance. Robusto has raced in the first four or so at his last three and that's been effective, Junipal can use his gate, while decisions from Osipenko as to whether he goes forward or back from the wide gate.

SELECTIONS:
1 ROBUSTO
2 Osipenko
4 St Lawrence
12 Redbreast

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Wyong meeting