Latest News

By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the third edition of the $2 million The Invitation (1400m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. Alcohol Free (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): A big line goes through her run in the TAB Everest, even though she ran last, she did a lot of work early to be up pressuring the leader and she was gone at the 300m. That’s a bit of a worry but she was so good ridden just off the speed in the Premiere Stakes it could be she’s handled a little more conservatively, say a pair back. The step up in trip is likely to suit if she can get the right run and a little more give in the ground would be handy but, still, she has to be taken on trust and not the reputation that came with her.

Espiona (Pic: Steve Hart).

2. Espiona (Chris Waller): On her win in the Golden Pendant over this trip you’d have to say she’s the horse to beat. That race panned out beautifully for her and the turn of foot she possesses could be put to full use. Her Everest run was solid without getting all the breaks but at the same time she wouldn’t have finished top three. We know she can be a bit to handle at times, with her habit of getting the head to one side an interesting quirk. And it makes you wonder whether drawing out and having to go back will work in her favour, despite her electric dash. If that’s the only negative it won’t stop her from going close.

3. Royal Merchant (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): Drew wide and went back first-up in the Nivison and at no stage looked to be any chance. Different set up for her this time from a better gate. Her best form to date came in Adelaide last campaign where she won two races, including the Group 1 Goodwood, on soft tracks. Whether that is a significant factor is a relevant question. Has a job to do to turn the tables on those in front of her but fitter and is entitled to improve.

4. Ruthless Dame (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): The barrier has hurt her chances significantly it would seem, while she has generally drifted back she’ll have little choice but to concede a start. She’s shaped up okay in two runs back, solid enough behind Private Eye in The Shorts and in the Silver Eagle she had some traffic before she took an inside run then knocked up late beaten two lengths. Only attempt at the Randwick 1400m was a narrow defeat in the Group 1 Surround, splitting Sunshine In Paris and In Secret, earlier in the year.

5. Opal Ridge (Luke Pepper): Sent out favourite at her past four starts for a win, an unlucky second, a game Group 1 fifth and a first-up second in The Kosciuszko. She was no match for Front Page in that race when resuming but still ran very well and can only be fitter for it. She doesn’t run bad races and she’s drawn to have that stalking run in the first half of the field. Don’t think there’s any doubt she’s up to this level and will have every chance to be in the finish.

6. Roots (Chris Waller): Excellent performance when resuming in the Alan Brown where she weaved through the pack to run a close fifth behind Cepheus. She’s yet to win at Randwick but has a consistent record and finished in front of Opal Ridge in the Tatt’s Tiara but behind her in the Dane Ripper so there’s not a lot between that pair. Returning to the mares is a plus for her and if she gets the breaks she’s capable of causing trouble.

7. Magic Time (Grahame Begg): Talented mare who has had a perfect preparation for this race and would be the only mare who has been specifically set for it. Backed up her luckless first-up run with a dominant showing in the Nivison. She showed good early speed to cross and when asked to go she dropped Parisal and raced away. Had excuses for her defeat over this course in the autumn, can offset the barrier and will take plenty of stopping.

8. Parisal (James Cummings): Has a gate swap on Magic Time for their clash in the Nivison where she lead off the fence and boxed on to run second. Meets that mare on the same weight terms here and should get a kinder run from that barrier. The question is can she run out the 1400m strongly? Only had the one attempt and that was at her second race start and on a soft 7. It’s also her only unplaced run to date. The set up is there for her to run it out and if she does she’s a major player.

9. Olentia (Chris Waller): Appeared to be in for a big spring when she blew away a Benchmark 88 field first-up at Rosehill and you’d say she had excuses second-up in the Tramway. Found herself a long way back and didn’t come into it in two subsequent starts so we’re left scratching the head to work out where she sits. Beat Magic Time in the James Carr back in the autumn on a heavy track. On her best she could measure up to this but you’re entitled to be getting good each-way odds.

10. Banana Queen (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): If you take away her last start in the Nivison then she’s far from the worst in this field. Was back in distance, drew wide and went back and didn’t fire a shot in that race and that’s not her style. She’s most effective from closer to the pace so wouldn’t be surprised now she’s back to the 1400m she’s in the first half at least. Even effort behind Espiona in the Golden Pendant and is a place chance.

Banana Queen (Pic: Steve Hart)

11. Ausbred Flirt (Brad Widdup): Talented mare facing her biggest test but she’s clearly gone up a notch this preparation. Big effort to win fresh over this course then jumped into the Group 3 Angst and was run down but far from disgraced after momentarily looking the winner. Expect she will roll forward to a degree here and while she will need another career best she’s still on the up this spring.

12. Dalchini (Lee & Cherie Curtis): Always goes around at double figure odds and this race will be no exception but in saying that she’s put together three excellent efforts on end including a couple at Group 3 level. Not far off Princess Grace in the Hawkesbury Crown before a spell and worked home well into third behind Magic Time in the Nivison. Had she drawn soft you could entertain her as an upset chance but may have too much to do here.

13E. Razeta (Kris Lees): Gets back and runs on and that makes it tough when you reach a high level. She did start favourite against Hawaii Five Oh when third in the Hawkesbury Guineas at this trip earlier this year. Even effort in the Silver Eagle last time, gate one if she gains a start and she could run into a place at best.

14E. Russian Conquest (Peter & Paul Snowden): Also comes through the Nivison first-up and was another who settled back and couldn’t get into the races. Been a while between wins now for her and her last placing was in the Gosford Guineas last year. Would need to produce something special if she gained a run.

SPEED MAP: What the tactics are with Alcohol Free will go a long way to determining how this race is run. If there's as much intent as in the Everest she could lead them or sit outside either Parisal or Magic Time who appear the logical on pacers otherwise. Banana Queen can be closer than she was when back in distance, Ausbred Flirt can also race handy if desired, Opal Ridge draws to get a soft run. Espiona and Ruthless Dame seem resigned to going back.

SELECTIONS:
7 MAGIC TIME
5 Opal Ridge
2 Espiona
8 Parisal

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting