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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 2 $2 million The Ingham (1600m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. Private Eye (Joe Pride): If there were doubts about his desire to win the Festival Stakes performance put that to rest. He bounced, put himself right on the speed and asserted the sort of dominance over the field that his rating and reputation suggested he should. The 61kg represents some kind of challenge, more from a history of this race perspective than anything else. He had half a kilogram less in the Festival and gave away plenty of weight to that opposition, many of which are back in this race. The barrier is just about perfect for him if he does step away well again, we know the Randwick mile is very fair, and he has to be a contender.

2. Gringotts (Ciaron Maher): What can we add about this fellow’s rise throughout this year? Big Dance winner from barrier 19 then carried 60kg from barrier 14 and was too good in The Gong. Add to that a couple of narrow defeats first and second-up and he’s absolutely flying. He has drawn quite favourably, not too close to the fence but close enough that he shouldn’t have to work too hard with the weight to find a spot. He’s missed a top three finish once in 17 starts and is unbeaten at the mile so he’s pretty hard to punch holes in.

Gringotts (Pic: Bradley Photos).

3. Port Lockroy (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): He’d been promising to produce a big performance for a while and found the right race in the Railway over in Perth to tick off a Group 1 win. He was excellent in all his runs prior, particularly the Golden Eagle, so that win was hardly a surprise. The challenge is the 5kg rise in weight taking on a field you’d have to say is not dissimilar in quality, if not a bit better. That’s probably the negative but he’s clearly in career best form.

4. Rustic Steel (Kris Lees): Warhorse who started $10 in this race last year, finishing eighth, and is probably going just as well this time in. Ran fast time in winning the Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury and his effort back in distance in The Hunter was solid. He did have a nice run and worked home well but just couldn’t dash with them. Ticked over with a trial win and gets back to the mile so he has a case as an each-way chance.

5. Mighty Ulysses (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): Thought he had his chance in the Festival, he drew well and sat behind the speed before getting the inside run on the turn. Went with Private Eye for a few strides before being burnt off. There was a theory going into that race that he prefers the sting out of the ground and he’s not going to get that advantage here. Add to that a wide barrier and it looks tough. The stat in his favour is five of his six wins are at a mile.

6. New Energy (Ciaron Maher): He’d been threatening to win a race for some time prior to getting the job done in the Eclipse on a heavy track at Caulfield. That was on the back of a cheeky run against the likes of Mr Brightside and Antino and company at weight-for-age. He does tend to give away a start, so always needs some luck, and will be running on as usual.

7. Encap (Gary Portelli): Back and wide was not a formula for success in The Gong so his performance to run fifth was more than handy. And something of an encouragement that a strong mile isn’t beyond him. He did run fifth beaten a length in the Randwick Guineas at his other attempt. The draw is a little more favourable for him, he’s down 2kg and while he’s not a regular winner he’s rarely too far from the mark. So that makes him an each-way chance again.

8. Lion’s Roar (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): Ran third in this race last year before winning the Summer Cup at 2000m. To be fair he was probably going a bit better in that campaign than what he’s shown this time in though one of his runs was in the King Charles III. Safely held in the Big Dance and was a bit one paced in The Gong so he’s got some work to do to put himself in the finish.

9. Steparty (Paul Preusker): Found his form again this time in with successive third placings in good quality races including The Gong a few weeks ago. He meets Gringotts 2kg better for a 2-1/4 lengths defeat which should close that margin to a good degree and he’s drawn alongside that horse in this race. The first two home in The Gong did get away from him late so that’s a little niggle at a strong Randwick mile but has to be one of the chances.

10. Lekvarte (Joe Pride): Can’t be too hard on her for finishing midfield in The Gong as she did give away a start, the winner led and it was tough to make significant ground from the back. She is a backmarker, though, so usually gives away ground. It didn’t matter in the Angst Stakes over this track and distance second-up as she swept home to win. This is obviously harder but if they are storming down the middle then she’s in the mix.

11. Osipenko (Chris Waller): Has shown some glimpses this campaign but seems to have wandered into the wilderness a bit as time has gone on. Sat up outside Gringotts in The Gong and wound up almost seven lengths behind him at the finish and faces the prospect of having to either push right forward again from the outside barrier or go back. Hard to recommend him on his last few.

12. Waterford (Chris Waller): Overlook his Little Dance run under a big weight and he’s not been too far away which is generally par for him. Capable of a big run when circumstances allow though it is notable his past four wins have come at Rosehill. The placegetters were getting away from him at the end of The Gong but he has drawn pretty well and you can easily see him running into the placings at least.

13. Suparazi (Ben Brisbourne): He’s somewhat tied to the hip with Gringotts of late having run third in the Big Dance then a closing second in The Gong. If weights and measures matter he’s a half a kilogram better off and that’s not usually enough to turn the tables. That’s on paper at least. Probably finds a midfield position with some cover and he’s an easy case to make to be somewhere in the finish.

14. Xidaki (Peter Snowden): A horse still on the way up in his career and he shrugged off the Golden Eagle failure with a solid third in the Festival, working home from midfield. Gets a 1kg advantage from Private Eye but has over three lengths to make up from that clash. That said he’s always around the mark, handles all ground and has each-way claims again.

15. Coastwatch (Richard & Will Freedman): Won’t find this any easier than his last couple, which have been sound enough finishing just behind the placings, and needs to turn around more than six lengths on Private Eye from the Festival. Has gate one this time which should see him settle closer but he has to lift on recent efforts.

16. Robusto (Bjorn Baker): Has improved with each run this time in and was the best of the chasers behind Private Eye at Rosehill two weeks ago. Draws softer but is only half a kilogram better off at the weights and a mile is a box he’s yet to tick. He’ll run an honest race but there does appear to be more depth here.

17. Poison Chalice (Paul Preusker): Interesting addition to the field but he can be tied in through his second behind New Energy at Caulfield two runs back. Started favourite in the Ballarat Cup last week and boxed on okay to run fourth and arrives here with blinkers on and an inside barrier. He’ll put himself thereabouts in the run and is worth considering as another each-way hope.

Spangler (Pic: Steve Hart)

18. Estadio Mestalla (Joe Pride): Consistent and notched a deserved win at Kembla Grange under a big weight running fast time after he was cut down in the last couple of strides of the Little Dance. Probably little choice but to look to press forward from the barrier and find a spot. Drops 9kg which will help that cause and if he does find a position without too much trouble he won’t be far away again.

19. Spangler (Kris Lees): Excellent return in the high benchmark race on The Hunter program where he made ground from last in a race where the winner led and dominated. He’ll be much better for that off a long break and getting out to the mile will suit. Won the Little Dance last year over this track and distance and if he’s not still in need of another run he could figure at the business end.

20. I’mintowin (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): He’s been super winning both runs this time in over the 1400m and backs up after that easy win on the heavy ground at Rosehill last weekend. He jumps straight in the deep end but does get down to 53kg to help on that front. You’d imagine it’s handlebars down from the wide gate to find the front and it’ll then be a matter of how much work he’s done and whether it’s come up a bit soon for him. Intriguing runner.

21E. Tannhauser (Chris Waller): Thought he might have been some hope first-up in the Festival but he wound up back at the tail and only passed a few over the line without really dashing home. Faces going right back again from the wide gate and while he has shown flashes of good ability he does have a task.

22E. Tavi Time (Kris Lees): He’ll start in the market if he gains a run as he has that SP profile of being favourite in the Big Dance two runs back where he had every hope and finished fourth then ran on well when a drifter in the market at Kembla Grange behind Estadio Mestalla. Draws well, limit weight and this will tell us where he stands if he does start.

23E. Kerchak (Ben Ahrens): Would be an interesting runner if he was given the call up to run having come through the grades quickly in Queensland with three straight wins. The last couple on heavy ground. On face value this should be too strong for him.

24E. Uzziah (Scot Aspery): Strong all the way winner in the last event on The Hunter program but couldn’t replicate it with Private Eye breathing down his neck in the Festival before he broke clear. Has won at a mile and if he made the field he’d give some cheek up on the pace but this has a lot more depth.

SPEED MAP: Failing Uzziah gaining a start, I'mintowin should get across to the lead from his outside gate. Osipenko has been going forward of late and along with Mighty Ulysses could follow across from out there too. Estadio Mestalla is another drawn near them who could looks to follow. Gringotts has shown speed but probably has the option to hand up and get cover. Private Eye jumped and sat outside the lead in winning the Festival so we know he can race handy too. Poison Chalice, Steparty and Port Lockroy can all be in forward positions.

SELECTIONS:
2 GRINGOTTS
1 Private Eye
13 Suparazi
7 Encap

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Randwick meeting