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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 3 $1 million Illawarra Mercury Gong (1600m) at Kembla Grange on Saturday.

1. Gringotts (Ciaron Maher): You only need look at the numbers alongside him to know he’s a smart horse in the making and this is by far his biggest test. He made light work of the 58.5kg and barrier 19 in the Big Dance, hitting the lead up the rise and defying the chasers. And he seemed to be holding them safely enough given the tough run. Unfortunately he faces something similar with an extra 1.5kg so the run he gets through the race will be vital. Impossible to knock him and there’s a chance he’s too good.

Gringotts (Pic: Bradley Photos).

2. Mighty Ulysses (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): The outside barrier awaits this gelding if he ventures back north. He’s been hit and miss since he landed in Australia with his wins coming at $31 and $14. Found the line with plenty of purpose to score first-up then stayed at 1400m at Flemington and wasn’t as effective, just battling to the line. Beat Jimmystar at a mile back in April, not a bad reference, but he’s going to need plenty of luck.

3. Territory Express (Paul Niceforo): We all know this fellow well by now, he’ll be back in the second half of the field if not near the tail and it’ll be up to Jason Collett to pick the right path through the field. It’s pretty clear that he should have won the Five Diamonds Prelude at Randwick and you can make a good case to say the Five Diamonds would have been his too had the runs opened up. Going to Kembla Grange will be a plus for him, coming back that 200m will only be a negative if the speed is fair, and he has to be one of the hardest to beat.

4. Sky Lab (Paul Perry): There was merit in his first-up performance in the Big Dance but he only gets a 2.5kg swing against the winner for being beaten the four lengths. He did respond well when placed under pressure well before the turn and worked to the line nicely enough. If the mile isn’t too sharp for him now, given he’d had a string of trials leading in, then he’ll be hitting the line strongly and it comes down to where he gets to in the run and the tempo up front. Each-way chance.

5. Lion’s Roar (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): Fair to say he’s been a little disappointing in his two runs back from a spell, more particularly last start in the Big Dance where he just didn’t find the line. He was alongside Sky Lab at the 200m and finished two lengths behind him. His best winning form is around the 2000m mark over the past year or two and while he’s capable enough at the mile he’ll need to do better than last time.

6. Encap (Gary Portelli): Appeared as though he was being hunted all the way through the Golden Eagle having jumped from barrier one so it’s not really any surprise he didn’t have a lot left at the finish. Boxed on okay and was only beaten four lengths in what was a particularly strong race. It’s interesting that the plan is to ride him off the speed from the wide barrier and come with one run at them, as he’s been effective that way previously. If he finds the right back to follow it wouldn’t surprise to see him cause a mini-upset.

7. Griff (Ciaron Maher): Never for one metre of the Golden Eagle was he a chance but there was something about how he worked home that said, just as his previous start did, if things work out for him in a race there’s another big performance in him. Whether that’s this race remains to be seen. He was particularly unlucky behind Jimmystar at Caulfield last month, so if he can hold a position this time and find his best he could lob somewhere at big odds.

8. Osipenko (Chris Waller): The stable tried something different with this gelding in the Five Diamonds and while it didn’t result in a win he was put into the race and boxed away. May need to do something similar here from a wide barrier but while we can make plenty of excuses for him the fact is he hasn’t won since April last year and his latest placing was a third in this race 12 months ago on a heavy track. So, it’s up to him to lift.

9. Lekvarte (Joe Pride): Specialist miler who did a great job to win the Angst Stakes at Randwick on Everest Day from last on the turn, running past Hinged to score comfortably. That form reads well now. She was game in the Empire Rose, kept making ground to be beaten under three lengths by Atishu with subsequent Group 1 winner Kimochi behind her. She will get back but Kembla suits her and look for her to be surging home.

10. Converge (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Freshened up since failing to fire in the Craven Plate second-up, granted not too much made a lot of ground in that race but he was still disappointing. He’s had a rousing trial win at Randwick where he sat just behind the two leaders and was asked to go away from them. Another who has become hit and miss so if he’s switched on he could run into the finish but you’ve very much got to take him on trust.

11. Steparty (Paul Preusker): Interesting visitor who may be running back toward his best form with a couple of solid placings in good company in Melbourne. Solid behind Another Wil and Jimmystar at Flemington then stuck to his guns nicely to claim third behind Kimochi last week at Group 1 level. He’s been to 1600m once for a third in the Caulfield Guineas last year. Draw gives him every chance to find a stalking spot in a race that lacks a lot of obvious speed so he’s in the mix.

12. Waterford (Chris Waller): Any chance he had in the Little Dance was gone after about two strides when he stepped away tardily and had to be used a bit under the 62kg to make up some lost ground. Had the flashing light on first-up when just missing in the Alan Brown so it’s worth being forgiving of last time, especially with the drop to 55.5kg. Blinkers go back on and if he’s able to break with them this time he might find himself around midfield or so but he’ll still need a degree of luck to get clear. He's not won at a mile but he went close in the Scone Cup so he’s one of the hopes.

13. Berkshire Shadow (Ciaron Maher): Led them up in the Big Dance wild card and failed to beat one home but appreciated racing with cover as he held on for third in the Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury. Creeping down in the weights again and has the blinkers on first time here, so if he can run up to his best effort this prep which was at Newcastle in September then he could be an each-way hope.

Waterford (Bradley Photos)

14. Loch Eagle (Kris Lees): Simply not racing as well as he was a year ago when he was runner-up in this race and went on to win the Ingham at his next start. He wasn’t disgraced in the Little Dance under the 62kg as he wound up late to be beaten four lengths. In his favour is the 8kg drop in the weights, against him may be the draw which sees him concede a decent head start.

15. Suparazi (Ben Brisbourne): Model of consistency who enjoyed a decent enough run midfield with cover before charging down the middle to claim third in the Big Dance. Nine starts since his last win but seven of them have been placings. Imagine he’ll find a similar sort of run from the gate here in the three wide line and given he doesn’t know how to run a bad race he’s hard to dismiss.

16. Vivy Air (Ciaron Maher): The weights and measures people will focus in on this mare after he ran second to her stablemate in the Big Dance and will be in receipt of another 1.5kg for being beaten three quarters of a length. Andrew Adkins will know her better as well for the ride in that race and she’s another who continues to step up as the bar is raised. Granted she was a $26 chance in the Big Dance so it’s on her to repeat the performance at this level.

17E. Glory Daze (Ciaron Maher): Landed fourth in the run when resuming at 1400m and probably wasn’t prepared to be chasing a free roller like Willaidow at that sort of trip so not a big surprise he felt the pinch there. Two months between runs and the mile are genuine pluses for him as is the big drop in weight down to 53kg. He was pretty dynamic over a mile at Randwick back in January second-up from a spell and he might be one to keep a close eye on.

18E. King Of The Castle (Joe Pride): Did a good job under the 62.5kg to rally when he looked like being outsprinted at Randwick second-up and he proved a bit too strong. Rarely too far from them and did show he’s up to this sort of race with his fourth in the Big Dance a year ago. Plummets to 53kg and draws softly, so expect he’ll land in a handy enough position and if that’s the case he’s a winning chance.

19E. Poison Chalice (Paul Preusker): Beaten favourite behind Light Infantry Man, who is favourite for the Group 1 Railway this weekend) when running on into forth at Flemington a couple of weeks ago. His overall record is solid enough and he has won up to 1800m so if he sneaks into the field he might be an each-way chance.

20E. Tavi Time (Kris Lees): Thought he was disappointing in the Big Dance as favourite after enjoying a perfect run in transit, pulling out to make his run but he didn’t make the impact he appeared he would. Second and third came from behind him and he only just nailed Ducasse to run fourth. When he’s drawn wide in the past he’s generally gone back in the field, so he’ll probably not get the kind of passage he did last time. Might be better placed in the Benchmark 88 but if he makes the field he’ll have his fans.

SPEED MAP: For a big field there doesn't look to be a high amount of speed engaged so the early jostling for position will be interesting. Osipenko went forward from a wide gate last time and might have to do the same, Berkshire Shadow and Griff tend to race handy as well though the former didn't react well to leading two runs back. If Gringotts jumps as well as he did in the Big Dance he'll be in the first half dozen and then you're left with King Of The Castle, Glory Daze (if here) and perhaps Steparty holds a spot too.

SELECTIONS:
3 TERRITORY EXPRESS
1 Gringotts
11 Steparty
18 King Of The Castle

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Kembla Grange meeting