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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Saturday's Group 1 $5 million TAB Golden Slipper (1200m) at Rosehill Gardens.

1. Rivellino (Kris Lees): He’s a two-year-old already displaying a lot of race sense and that’s going to be an asset in a Slipper. Sat handy and burst clear on debut then he’s had to work a lot harder from back in the field off wide gates in his Millennium and Skyline wins where he’s found backs to follow and finished too well. How will he cope with an inside barrier in a race where a lot of the speed will come across from wide out? That’s his challenge, if he can make some use of it and be midfield, and get clear at the right time, he can easily be in the finish.

2. Devil Night (Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes): Everything has gone right for this colt in his two starts in Melbourne, he’s drawn one and two and been able to sit handy around Caulfield and he just lasted to win the Blue Diamond. Largely unfancied in both starts. He now has to do it at Rosehill from a tricky gate which will afford him few favours but he is trained on the track and did trial here early on. On the plus side the form out of the Diamond has been excellent with the likes of Tempted and Tentyris winning Slipper lead ups subsequently. He’ll need to be good to complete the double.

North England (Pic: Bradley Photos)

3. North England (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): The Golden Gift winner had been considered one of the leading fancies for the Slipper right up until two weeks ago when he led and knocked up to be beaten 1.8 lengths in the Todman. He was a drifter in betting and coming off a setback that saw him miss the Silver Slipper. But was his effort that bad? He was taken on in front and got into a speed battle with two other horses who dropped out while he fought on. He’ll get across from his middle gate and beware he doesn’t improve sharply.

4. Tycoon Star (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): One of the runs of the Blue Diamond as he charged from the back in an on pace dominated race to be beaten 1-1/4 lengths in third. Excellent effort. He backed that up in the Todman running a solid fourth albeit he was there to win the race at the 300m. This is arguably the best barrier he’s been afforded in his five runs so that gives him every opportunity.

5. West Of Swindon (Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes): Scratched from the Pago Pago last week on vets after a minor race morning issue. He’s obviously taken no harm. Had he run that day would he have backed up into this race or, as many suggested, miss it and head to the Sires’? Clearly he needs a run to get to that race so it’s likely we’re dealing with a Plan B. He tracked Beiwacht in the Silver Slipper but couldn’t sprint with him, which is some concern. But his best chance might be a strongly run race and getting the last shot.

6. Beiwacht (James Cummings): Looked a serious contender when he raced away with the Silver Slipper a month ago but a ninth of 10 isn’t an ideal last run for this sort of race. Having said that he had a torrid run in the Todman where he took charge from a wide gate and served it up three wide to the leaders and something had to give. Perhaps a conservative ride from the wide barrier might bring out his best but it also might just make the job too tough.

7. Skyhook (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): Something of a new kid on the block who only debuted just over a month ago and burst into contention with his dominant Pago Pago win last week. Following his luckless second in the Skyline, luck was taken out of it when he led and kicked away when asked to go. Doubt he’ll lead this race but he’s drawn directly underneath one of the speed influences so should get the chance to land in a striking position. There might be a sense of timing about him and he’s one of the leading hopes.

8. Wodeton (Chris Waller): Debuted in a blaze of glory with an easy win back on January 18 and has been at the top of Slipper betting ever since. He went a month between runs into the Silver Slipper where he was caught wide and did a good job to run third with some slick sectionals late. Fair to say he had every hope in the Todman but the theory is he was a bit close in the run and was left vulnerable late. Winkers go on, if he can hold up midfield or so from the inside gate he should get his chance. He’s one of the hopes but perhaps moreso if it happened to rain.

9. King Of Pop (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): Made his debut just 31 days prior to when this race is run though did have some trials in the spring. Proved a touch too strong on debut at Warwick Farm in a midweek maiden, the third horse Congressman won at Wyong midweek, before gaining the ascendancy late in a fast run Black Opal. The last, and only, Opal winner to claim the Slipper was in 1999. His problem is where does he get to from that outside barrier? He could try his luck and come across with the speed just inside him or look for a back to follow. If he wins it’ll be a big performance.

10. Quietly Arrogant (Peter Snowden): Ran well without featuring in the finish of the Magic Millions but has come into the picture with his third in the Skyline where he made a late dive to be narrowly beaten. Alongside him was Skyhook who has confirmed the form. His draw should see him land somewhere in the middle of the pack. He’s shown something of a smart finishing burst and there is a bit of confidence around that he can run a race at odds. Each-way.

11. Farcited (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Kicked off his career with a win at Canberra in the second last week of February then led the Black Opal and was just gunned down by King Of Pop. Like that horse he’s drawn a very awkward alley and if he’s going to offset it he’ll either have to go right forward or settle back. Given he’s being set for the Sires’ he may employ the latter. At this stage don’t think he’s exposed enough to know if he’s up to this and the market doesn’t seem to think so.

12. Within The Law (Bjorn Baker): What we’ve seen from her is a big finish at the end of high pressure races and that is in her favour for this race. Just had to give the winner an extra couple of lengths when going back from a wide gate and was closing fast on him in the Inglis Millennium. In the Sweet Embrace she relished a good tempo and arrived just in time to down Bellazaine and win her way into this race. Imagine she’ll look to be in the three wide line and storm down the middle. Can’t rule her out as there’s good potential for a fast run Slipper.

Within The Law (Pic: Bradley Photos).

13. Tempted (James Cummings): Huge effort in the Blue Diamond when held up for a run before hitting the line when it was all over beaten just under four lengths. Confidently ridden back in the field off a wide gate in the Reisling and she scored what looked a particularly soft win. With barrier one it’ll be interesting to see where she lands, on debut she sat third in a seven horse field and won well after drawing inside. So if she makes a bit of use of gate one and then gets into the clear she’ll be hard to hold out.

14. Bellazaine (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Tough filly who looked all over a winner in the Sweet Embrace only to be denied on the line. She’d run that race quickly in front and was so gallant in defeat. Safely held Beiwacht at bay prior to that and she’s ticked over with a barrier trial since her last run. She has the speed to overcome the wide alley early, if she does that then she could take some catching.

15. Military Tycoon (Ciaron Maher): A bit hard to line up given she’s had two starts and both have been at 1000m at Flemington. Clearly she improved into her second preparation given her runaway win two weeks ago in a Group 3 sprint. Not sure what was behind her there and she now has to go 1200m around a bend at Rosehill from a tricky gate. Tough to know where she stands and the market probably has her right.

16. Marhoona (Michael Freedman): Too good for Dream Side, who ran well last weekend in the Magic Night, then couldn’t quite match Tempted’s finish in the Reisling after having a saloon run through to hit the lead early in the straight. Still on the way up and she’s drawn to again get a handy sort of run. All things equal she probably can’t turn the tables but that doesn’t account for getting the right run in the race. Not without a chance.

SPEED MAP: There's potential for very good speed with much of it drawn wide. North England has the chance to find the fence first then it's whether he hands up to the likes of Bellazaine and Devil Night coming over. King Of Pop has the outside barrier and did sit outside the leader winning last time. Beiwacht fired up on speed last start, perhaps he's a bit more conservative, Marhoona and Skyhook can take handy spots. Imagine the likes of Tempted and Wodeton look to be around midfield.

SELECTIONS:
7 SKYHOOK
13 Tempted
3 North England
12 Within The Law

All the fields, form and replays for Golden Slipper day at Rosehill