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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $1.5 million TAB Epsom Handicap (1600m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. My Oberon (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): Hasn’t been handed any favours with the outside gate but the Randwick mile can be forgiving to wide draws. Brings the strongest form into the race with his placings in a Doncaster last year, the King Charles III and the last start second to Fangirl in the 7 Stakes. He ran seventh, beaten two lengths, in this race a year ago off gate 15 third-up from a break and that’s the set up here too. Couldn’t deny him a chance with any luck.

2. Royal Patronage (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Massive excuses for him second-up in the 7 Stakes, where he was well supported, after an incident at the start that saw him last out and forced to be ridden well off the speed. As a result he had to do plenty of work making a run around them and was only beaten a length by Fangirl. Down 3kg and the wide gat isn’t such a big deal for him as he’ll go forward if he gets away with them. Beat Amekia’s Jewel and Kovalica first-up and has to be one of the hardest to beat.

Royal Patronage (Pic: Steve Hart)

3. Detonator Jack (Ciaron Maher): Nothing wrong with his two runs back at weight-for-age beaten just over a length on both occasions so he’s well suited coming back to handicap conditions. Also comes through the 7 Stakes where he followed the leader throughout and just ran him down on the line in finishing fourth. Doesn’t appear that a soft run is coming his way this time around off that wide gate but he’s one of the each-way chances.

4. Kovalica (Chris Waller): Ran second in this race last year with 54kg so raises 1.5kg for not winning a race since then, though he has largely finished around the top five including a couple of Group 2 placings. Hit the line well in the Tramway first-up behind Royal Patronage and he’s had a tickover trial in the interim. Gate one over the mile is a curious set up for him as he doesn’t often draw well but it might see him that pair or two closer in the run. No surprise he’s right in the market and he’ll have a good chance to break through.

5. Rediener (Chris Waller): Last year’s winner who had just his second run since then with a solid return in the Theo Marks three weeks ago. Tracked three wide around midfield in that race so it was a nice effort and he’s had an exhibition gallop since then. Down 2.5kg on the first-up run but up 5.5kg for winning the race a year ago and not drawn as softly as on that day. Desert War in 04/05 is the last back-to-back Epsom winner and he’s some chance to repeat that feat with the right run.

6. Democracy Manifest (Chris Waller): Unlucky when running fourth in this race last year but he’s a horse we know well know. He gets back and needs that fortune in the run before producing his finish. Restrained to last in the Tramway and by the turn was giving away an impossible start, despite a strong enough tempo. He finished on the back of the main pack in a pass mark and is four weeks between runs. It’s more than possible for him to swamp them but he’s very much a take on trust commodity.

7. Ceolwulf (Joe Pride): Signalled he was in for a big spring with a big second-up win at 1500m then went to the Kingston Town at 2000m and smashed the line but just couldn’t get past Eliyass. Sectionals said it was as good as it looked and that tough run over the trip is always seen as a great preparation for the Randwick mile. Imagine he looks for a similar spot around midfield in the run and if he produces the turn of foot he did two weeks ago it’ll take a good performance to hold him off.

8. Nugget (Ciaron Maher): Last win was on Boxing Day in 2022 which is a small concern though he’s largely raced in Group 1 and 2 company since then including a fourth in the King Charles III and Doncaster Mile last season. You’d give his first-up run in the Tramway a pass as it was 1400m and while he was never a winning chance he closed it off okay. He’s up 2.5kg on his Doncaster fourth placing and down 1kg on last start. Can see him running into a placing.

9. Tom Kitten (James Cummings): There’s no way he’s double figures if he’d drawn a lot better than gate 19 but not sure that gate is such a big deal to him. And his lead in run in the Bill Ritchie was better than it looked in a messy race, where he found a reasonable spot before they packed up and it saw him going backwards coming to the turn before getting to the outside and to finish fifth was a handy effort. He did start favourite in that race too. Mile third-up is ideal and did run fourth beaten under a length in the Randwick Guineas third-up last prep when still a colt. Dangerous.

10. Berkshire Shadow (Ciaron Maher): Enormous effort to run third in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle second-up after sitting three wide near the speed throughout. That followed an even effort behind Ceolwulf and meets that horse 1kg worse for a four length margin. On the plus side he should get the right sort of run from a kinder gate. Yet to win in Australia and last start was his first placing, so in a field with a bit more depth he’s a place chance.

11. Loch Eagle (Kris Lees): Hasn’t finished in the placings in seven starts since winning The Ingham over this course back in December but he did have some excuses in the Cameron last time out. Couldn’t get a shot at them in the straight and went to the line untested. Aside from that, though, he hasn’t really fired in 2024.

12. Major Beel (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Australian Derby winner of 2023 who has shown some dash this preparation in two runs at the mile. Held them off first-up from a spell before a cheeky effort in the 7 Stakes where he went for home early and was only 1-1/4 lengths from Fangirl on the line. Imagine similar tactics are employed here third-up back to handicap conditions to take advantage of the 51.5kg. Perhaps prefer him on a soft track at this level but he should give you a sight.

13. Chrysaor (Chris Waller): Hasn’t raced in Sydney since he took out the Callander-Presnell just under a year ago over this course and overall his form has been on the mixed side. Charged at the line to win first-up over 1400m at Flemington on a heavy track three weeks ago so at least he comes here in winning form. Not sure he’s the type that will make use of a good gate but it may mean he’s not in the last few. Probably more a trifecta chance.

14. Molly Bloom (Chris Waller): Just had the one start for the Waller stable but fair to say at this point she hasn’t run up to the raps on her from New Zealand earlier in the year. Always well back in the Theo Marks and failed to beat one home over the 1300m which was obviously too sharp for her. The mile is a plus, drawn well but it would be a surprise to see her jump out of the ground and win this.

15. Arctic Glamour (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): On the back up after an even effort behind Makarena in the Golden Pendant, a race that wasn’t strongly run. So far the mile has proven beyond her in four attempts but she has placed at 1500m. Will get the chance to run it out with the 50kg on her back and a draw that sees her do little work early to find a spot. If she can be held up long enough before producing that sprint she can unleash she could ambush them but her record at the trip is the big concern.

McHale (Pic: Steve Hart)

16. McHale (Chris Waller): Aiming to emulate Rediener by winning the Bill Ritchie and Epsom but fair to say he was the beneficiary of a few breaks in the run in that first-up win which would have been snatched from him in one more stride. Add the wide gate and he’ll need a of luck again in the run but 50kg may offset that a bit. That said, he’s a place chance.

17. Ausbred Flirt (Brad Widdup): Handy mare who found the line when it was all over first-up in the Tibbie and did a good job to run fifth there. Different league in an Epsom, on her side is a soft draw and first go in blinkers. Placed in the Angst over this course last spring but think she’s entitled to be generous odds.

18. Kintyre (Gary Portelli): Absolutely nothing wrong with his two run back and he could well be a dark horse in this race. Chased a solid tempo and held on well first-up in the Tramway then forced to ride wide on the pace in the Bill Ritchie and stuck on to run fourth there. On the limit and drawn well he should be able to get an economical enough run. Won at a mile and 2000m and with that light weight there’s a good case for him to be a realistic chance.

19. Firestorm (Chris Waller): She’s been something of a surprise packed this spring with successive wins at Benchmark 78 and 88 level, backing up after narrowly outpointing stablemate Unusual Legacy over the 1900m. Plummets in the weights but very hard to line up as a couple of stakes placings in Brisbane are her best results away from benchmark racing. She does have upside and is clearly in form so perhaps she can step up.

20. Galeron (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): Consistent type who has had 10 starts in Australia without success but has collected three placings from his last four starts. Down 8.5kg and drawn well and his close second to Major Beel two runs back as favourite suggests he could sneak into a placing at odds.

21E. Floating (Matthew Smith): Produced a nice turn of foot to score in a Benchmark 88 over this course two weeks back under the 59kg in a timely return to form with the Big Dance coming up. He’d appreciate a strongly run Randwick mile with the light weight but does face a task from that wide gate as he risks going too far back. Keep an eye on him for November 5.

SPEED MAP: Major Beel is the designated leader here and expect he'll look to make it a truly run race as he did last start. Royal Patronage will roll forward from wider out, then there's the likes of Berkshire Shadow, My Oberon, Kintyre and even Ceolwulf who can be in the first half of the field. Rediener, Nugget and Galeron are others who could settle handy.

SELECTIONS:
7 CEOLWULF
2 Royal Patronage
9 Tom Kitten
4 Kovalica

All the fields, form and replays for TAB Epsom Day at Randwick on Saturday