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By Ray Hickson

An in depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $2 million Schweppes Sydney Cup (3200m) at Randwick on Saturday.

1. Duke De Dessa (Ciaron Maher): Untried at two miles but brings some serious weight-for-age form into the Cup and given his rating he’s badly weighted. Gallant in the Tancred after leading early, being pressured and handing up then hitting the front again in the straight only to be run down by Dubai Honour. He’s a Caulfield Cup winner, he’ll not be too far away from the pace from his inside gate and it comes down to whether he can run the trip out. If he can you’d expect him to be right in the finish.

2. Arapaho (Bjorn Baker): Two goes at the distance for a fourth in the 2023 Sydney Cup with 53kg and 11th in the Melbourne Cup a year earlier. He’s racing consistently without winning this preparation, narrowly missing two starts back to Vauban, and he held his ground in fourth in the Tancred. He’s a hard horse to be confident about winning, his record at the track is ordinary (though to be fair not always at his preferred trips) and he probably wants a softish track to be most effective but you just can’t see him running a bad race.

3. Zarir (Chris Waller): On what we saw in the Tancred he’s little chance of figuring in the finish but that was weight-for-age first-up since September. He’s won up to 2700m overseas and definitely better suited under handicap conditions, he shouldn’t have any trouble with the distance looking at some of his runs. Draws well, whether it’ll take a prep to settle him in is the question and he’s probably the right sort of price.

Circle Of Fire (Pic: Steve Hart).

4. Circle Of Fire (Ciaron Maher): Last year’s winner with 51.5kg and that was quite a strong staying performance. Only other start at the trip was a creditable sixth in the Melbourne Cup last year from gate 23. He’s drawn out here but that’s of little concern, he looks to be tracking pretty well improving with each run in this time around and he’s set to peak. Still will need some things to fall his way in the early stages to find the right run but has to stay in consideration knowing he will run it out.

5. Athabascan (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): Runner-up in this race last year with 52kg and three lead up runs, he’s had four this time so he won’t be short on fitness. Up 1.5kg but did win the St Leger in the spring. You could see he was tracking well for this race with his second in the Manion Cup two starts back but things didn’t work out for him last week in the Chairman’s. He still worked home okay. Blinkers go on, he’s drawn well and if you can be forgiving of last start he’s a definite chance.

6. Zardozi (James Cummings): Plenty of merit in her three runs in Melbourne in March for placings at a mile, 1800m and 2000m and she did loom up like she might win the Australian Cup at one point. Had a very different preparation than a lot of her rivals but she’s always performed well when she’s been asked to stay. Only up 2kg on her fourth in the Melbourne Cup, where she looked the winner at one point, and if she can replicate that sort of performance then she’ll be hard to beat. Any sting out of the track would be a bonus.

7. Warmonger (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): Runaway Queensland Derby winner last year and he’s had a bit of attention on him since then. Looked on track with a handy second behind Alalcance in the Randwick City Stakes second-up and you have to forgive him on two fronts for failing in the Tancred. That was weight-for-age of course and he settled back before making a long run around them to be on speed, then weakened. Shapes as though he’ll run two mile out and he’s right down in the weights so will get his chance.

8. Alalcance (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Impossible to fault her credentials and she’s managed to get in with just 52kg on her back. She showed a glimpse in the late spring that she could be a well above average stayer with a couple of fighting narrow defeats but she’s come back nothing short of a powerhouse with her increasingly easy three wins on end. She had to adapt to an oddly run race in the Chairman’s after being slowly away but once she got control and kicked in the straight she did it comfortably. Drops 4.5kg so is very well weighted for taking on largely the same opposition and gives every indication two miles won’t worry. It’s obvious to say but she’s the one to beat.

9. River Of Stars (Chris Waller): Initially settled third and fourth in the run first-up in the Tancred but put the foot down to lead them from just prior to the 1000m. She was comfortably reeled in at the 300m and was beaten four lengths. In her European career she’s looked very much the stayer and her Group 1 second at Longchamp prior to arriving here was gallant at 2800m. She’ll be a lot better suited under these conditions and it would be no surprise if she improves.

10. Cleveland (Kris Lees): Been a bit hit and miss since he arrived here a couple of years ago and was a $4 chance when well beaten in this race in 2023. Won a Moonee Valley Cup later that year then the wheels fell off him completely. He did show a glimpse when resuming in the Manion Cup with a handy fourth that he could be back in business and does get a 3kg turnaround in his favour over Alalcance. He’s very much a take on trust proposition but isn’t without an each-way show.

11. Francesco Guardi (Chris Waller): Have to go back to October 2022 to find his last win and he’s not been placed in 13 starts since then. He’s been safely held in all four runs in this campaign and hasn’t given any indication he’ll spring into form with no gear changes or anything new other than a drop to 51.5kg. Win would surprise on form.

12. Lastotchka (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): Yet to feature in five starts in Australia and has been significant odds in each of them. Past two runs have seen some improvement in that she’s finished in the top half of the field, in the runs themselves she’s had every chance. Won up to 3100m overseas so staying isn’t an issue, it’s just a question of whether she can find five or six lengths.

13. Mostly Cloudy (Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young): Led them up and boxed on for third in the Roy Higgins at Flemington at his third run since the Melbourne Cup. Only won the once in Australia, in September 2023, but is a proven stayer with a second in the Brisbane Cup and sixth in the Sydney Cup last year. Probably going about the same as he was last year so a midfield or better finish looks most likely.

14. Tajanis (Chris Waller): Not that long ago he was a Benchmark 64 winner but he’s continued to improve and with his two big wins in January he earned a trip across the ditch for the Auckland Cup and he was narrowly beaten as favourite at his first two mile attempt. This is a jump again but he does have that horse on the way up profile about him with a light weight and while likely to be giving a start from that barrier he could run into the placings.

15. Birdman (Chris Waller): Still very lightly raced and be bounced back from a battling effort in the Manion Cup to be best of the chasers behind Alalcance last week. Meets her 1.5kg worse off. He does have barrier one and you’d imagine it means he’s a lot closer to her in the run this time around. Does have the job to turn the tables but also has the right sort of scenario to have the best chance he’ll get to reel in those few lengths. Goes in as one of the chances.

Age Of Sail (Bradley Photos)

16. Valiant King (Chris Waller): Ran a much improved race when third in the Chairman’s last week though the runner-up did come from behind him. He stayed on well to keep the rest at bay. That was easily his best performance since his Australian debut sixth in the Caulfield Cup of 2023 and it was somewhat expected with support in betting. Needs to consolidate and is a place chance again.

17. Garachico (Dominic Sutton): Biggest test for this honest stayer who made some ground without threatening I the Roy Higgins off a five week gap. Won at big odds over 2800m at Flemington in November but is facing much tougher opposition and appears up against it. Would be some feat though for jockey Robbie Dolan to win both Sydney and Melbourne Cups in a season on outsiders!

18. Strathtay (Chris Waller): Had a reputation as a wet tracker prior to his Randwick win in August and he’s been thereabouts pretty much all the way through when he’s been in his distance range. He’s settled a long way back and made good ground at his past three and did run into a placing in the Manion Cup. Hasn’t tried the two miles but always seems to be running on so should be fine there and it comes down to how much start he concedes and the race shape.

19. Age Of Sail (Kris Lees): Been a handy middle distance type since joining the stable and notched a win at 2200m at Eagle Farm three starts back. Was something of a surprise to see him battling on into fourth in the Chairman’s last week as a $101 chance but he had gate one there and won’t get any favours this time around.

20. Waltham (Matthew Smith): Lightly raced five-year-old who did finish strongly to win over 2400m at the Gold Coast last month before he started in the market in the Chairman’s and he did an even job to finish eighth. Looked like he’d peaked on his run in the last 100m or so. Ran third in the St Leger in the spring to Athabascan beaten half a length but just a rough place chance.

21E. Hopeful (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): Has similar form lines to Waltham with a third to that horse at the Gold Coast then running fifth in the Chairman’s last week from a spot right behind the speed. He needs a wet track to be any chance at this level.

SPEED MAP: You wouldn't say there's high speed engaged in the Cup with the most logical leaders being Duke De Sessa and Alalcance. But there's potential for a River Of Stars or even Circle Of Fire to want to roll to the front. Most likely Alalcance will lead by the time they reach the winning post on the first lap. Arapaho, Zardozi, Birdman and Athabascan all have the opportunity to be in that first third of the field.

SELECTIONS:
8 ALALCANCE
5 Athabascan
6 Zardozi
1 Duke De Sessa

All the fields, form and replays for Day 2 of The Star Championships at Randwick