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By Ray Hickson

The weather is going to be a significant factor in deciding who lines up in the Group 2 $500,000 Premiere Stakes (1200m) at Randwick on Saturday and who can show their on the right path to the TAB Everest.

At least four of the 10 early nominations require a good track, or close to it, to produce their best and the forecast is saying there’ll be some midweek rain at the very least.

That aside it’s a critical point of the TAB Everest preparations for Lost And Running, Rothfire and Masked Crusader who were all unplaced in The Shorts and in the case of the former this weekend he must perform to put himself back in the picture.

Interestingly, both previous winners of the Premiere to run in the TAB Everest (Santa Ana Lane in 2018 and Libertini in 2020) finished unplaced in the Everest in their respective years.

Let’s take a look at the contenders for the 2021 edition:

Adelong (Brad Widdup): There’s been no disgrace in this mare’s performances in the Concorde and The Shorts despite being safely held by the likes of Nature Strip and company. This will be a completely different race without the speed influences of horses such as him and Eduardo and she might be afforded a better shot at figuring in the placings. And if the track is on the soft side it wouldn’t hurt her either.

Adelong (Pic: Steve Hart)

I Am Superman (Peter & Paul Snowden): A dry track is essential for this former import who has established himself as a more than handy 1400m-mile horse since he’s been under the care of the Snowdens. He’s performed well in each first-up attempt for the stable and trialled pleasingly behind Classique Legend earlier in September. The 1200m can be a bit sharp but if it’s dry he’s not to be discounted.

Jonker (Tony Gollan): Some shrewd placement here from Tony Gollan with a horse more than capable of giving them something to catch, wet or dry. He wasn’t bad down the straight first-up at Flemington a couple of weeks ago but this is more his go. He chased Eduardo home in the Galaxy and was brave as runner-up in the Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup in May. Probable leader and can give plenty of cheek.

Lost And Running (John O’Shea): When a horse that has won six from seven suddenly finishes last at his first run back you have to go looking for reasons why. And he found a few in The Shorts. He was stuck three wide and wasn’t able to get comfortable in the deteriorating ground, where those closer to the fence were aided, and it has to be a complete forgive run. That said he will need to put himself back in the picture with a top three finish, which is achievable on his best form.

Masked Crusader (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): While the grand final is still a couple of weeks away this is an important race for this gelding. He was again a bit tardy in The Shorts and didn’t get into the race at any stage though he did run on late with a race best final 200m. Now he’s at 1200m, where his only defeat to date was to Nature Strip in the TJ Smith, he’ll have every chance to underline himself as a major player and get a confidence booster at the same time.

Rocketing By (Matthew Dunn): On face value he’s probably a little out of his depth at weight-for-age but he is a backmarker with a big finish if things work out for him in the run. He was only beaten 2.7 lengths by Wild Ruler in the Group 2 Arrowfield back in April over this course so there is scope for him to improve into his four-year-old season. Interesting to see how he measures up with a race like the Sydney Stakes in mind.

Rothfire (Robert Heathcote): There’s plenty of interest in how the comeback kid will perform second-up after such a brave performance in the The Shorts. He did a lot of the chasing behind Nature Strip and Eduardo in the run and loomed in a manner that suggested he could threaten before his condition likely gave out in the ground. He’ll be better placed to handle this race, wet or dry, and you’d expect him to be fitter so if he’s an Everest player he’s in the finish.

Splintex (Pic: Steve Hart)

Signore Fox (Peter & Paul Snowden): An intriguing runner who generally needs a dry track to produce his best form. He’s continued to improve and work his way through the grades to be a dual Group 1 placegetter in the Brisbane winter, one at weight for age. He’s trialled strongly on two occasions including behind Classique Legend last week and if the ground isn’t too wet he is dangerous.

Splintex (Mark Newnham): In hindsight he may have been in need of the run first-up because his fresh record continues to be ordinary but his second-up record is awesome. He showed that with a game win in the Bobbie Lewis down the straight at Flemington. He’s a Group 2 and Group 3 winner at this track and distance and goes in all conditions, he’s more than capable of winning a race like this.

Standout (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): Another who relies on a dry track to produce his best form. Resumed with an even effort behind Nature Strip in the Concorde in a race that wasn’t run to suit him so gets a pass mark. Will be fitter for that and was runner-up in the Sydney Stakes here last year. Everything hinges on the track condition for him until he proves he’s capable in rain affected ground, if it’s dry he can show up.

Early TAB betting (as at 12.15pm Monday):
$2.80 Masked Crusader
$3.50 Rothfire
$6 Lost And Running
$8 Jonker, Signore Fox, Splintex
$15 Standout, I Am Superman
$51 Adelong
$101 Rocketing By

All the nominations, form and replays for TAB Epsom Day at Randwick