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Sneak Peak - TJ Smith Stakes

Can two-time winner Nature Strip bounce back and equal Chautauqua’s record of winning the Group 1 $2.5m TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) in three consecutive years when he takes his place at Randwick this Saturday on Day one of the Star Championships?

The Chris Waller-trained gelding will be up against usual sparring partners Eduardo and Masked Crusader, who will look to spoil the party.

The three proven WFA performers have had exciting contests over the past 12 months, with them running the trifecta for this race last year and the TAB Everest in the spring.

Two new contenders with incredible stories, Shelby Sixtysix and Roch 'N' Horse, will add a new element to the race, coming off maiden Group One wins after exceeding expectations.

Nature Strip is set to defend his crown and was outstanding first-up after being slow out, then checked/blocked before recovering to be outbobbed in the Black Caviar Lightning (1000m).

Second-up in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m), he began awkwardly then had to chase throughout, and Punter’s Intelligence recorded he ran the fastest middle sectionals between the 800m-400m in 21.74.

The mid-race exertion took its toll second-up over the final furlong. However, he looks to get the ideal conditions to produce/replicate a peak performance on Saturday.

His figures are dominant to his rivals at this track/distance and the rain-affected ground gives him an edge.

He follows a similar race pattern to his TJ Smith/Everest wins by having a freshen up and being third-up going into his grand final.

Eduardo wasn’t suited down the Flemington straight first-up in the Lightning and made amends when back around the bend at Randwick winning the Challenge Stakes second-up.

Nash Rawiller tactically rode the race to perfection using the gelding’s strengths over the specialist distance of 1000m.

Nature Strip (right) downs Masked Crusader and Eduardo in the 2021 TJ Smith Stakes. (Pic: Steve Hart)

He ran the first 600m in 35.29, then sprinted strongly between the 400m-200m in 11.23, making it difficult for the opposition to reel him in.

The eight-year-old gelding is consistent as they come and will undoubtedly roll forward and run a great race. It’s worth noting he was well fancied in the betting in last year’s TJ Smith Stakes and TAB Everest.

Masked Crusader has been unlucky and arguably should’ve won one of the major Group Ones, albeit he has been a victim of his racing style.

Although run to suit in the Everest he just had too much to do when 19 meters behind Nature Strip at the 600m mark. The gelding just missed in the final few bounds to run the clear best race final 600m sectional in 33.82.

He was unsuited over 1000m first-up and then carried the top-weight in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m), where he raced without cover and was in the inferior ground.

The five-year-old gelding will be primed by the Hawkes stable to have the last shot and is a big improver back to this track/distance where he produces his peak figures.

Most now know the story of cult-hero Shelby Sixtysix, better known as ‘The Party Boy’, who has progressed from winning a Class 2 Tab Highway Handicap (1000m) four starts ago to winning the Group 1 Galaxy (1100m).

The Danny Williams trained galloper has been a revelation and is excelling on the heavy tracks where he continues to run sizzling closing sectionals.

Prior to his Group 1 Galaxy (1100m) win at Rosehill, the gelding ran the quickest last 600m individual final sectional of the entire meeting for all three runs when winning.

He ran the fastest last 200m sectional of the meeting in 11.41 to hit the line hard and salute in the Galaxy.

The gelding is back to WFA, but the fairy tale could go on as his heavy track figures line up and he did split Eduardo and Nature Strip three starts ago.

Roch ‘N’ Horse exceeded market expectations when winning the Newmarket Handicap starting at $101 but was ridden perfectly and found the best ground. The five-year-old mare deserves her spot but will have to step up against the proven WFA performers.

Multiple pieces to the puzzle are still yet to come, such as the barrier draw, weather, and other key factors, but it will surely be another exciting event.

Watch Punter’s Intelligence with Ben Way and Brad Gray at 7pm on Tuesdays on Sky Thoroughbred Central.

Click here to download the Punter's Intelligence app

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