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Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens. There are winners to be found for nine races!
Spring has sprung with a mouth-watering clash between boom colts Menari and Pariah in the $200,000 Group Two Run To The Rose (1200m) highlighting the Rosehill card. If the below is anything to go by Gerald Ryan looks set to claim plenty of the spoils. The rail is in the True and the track is rated a Good 3.
| Race 1 - 12:10PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1500 METRES) |
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Very confident that we still haven’t seen the best of four-year-old mare Karavali. She ran three seconds on the trot in her first campaign with Kris Lees after being shipped over from NZ but broke that trend first up with a strong provincial win over Canberra, who has since won a midweeker. She was baulked in running too so to pick herself up and win over 1300m suggests she has come back better than ever. Shouldn’t be too far away from barrier 3 and with Hugh Bowman calling the shots. Will relish the 1500m.
Danger: Heartlings is a good mare and might be able to control it from the front without an obvious leader. She was a strong winner first up and can only improve off it further. Cambage was brilliant fresh at Hawkesbury despite 1400m looking well short of her best.
How to play it: Karavali ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Karavali winning first up at Newcastle
| Race 2 - 12:45PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES) |
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Mossman Gorge is still on trial over 1200m but on the strength of his two wins this time in, he’ll be right in the finish again in the day’s Highway Handicap. The three-year-old has won three from four when able to lead and the loss was only by half a length after being pressured. From barrier 2, Jay Ford should be able to hold out Don’t Give a Damn on his immediate outside and take up the running. He’ll be wheeling along out in front making his own luck while his main danger Suncraze maps to be pocketed back on the fence.
Danger: Suncraze is an extremely talented horse but he has his quirks. The last time we saw him he bolted in over 1400m in a Highway but the trick there was the interrupted run and 1400m. Corey Brown might have to go back to last to sweep down the outside this time.
How to play it: Mossman Gorge WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds)
Mossman Gorge winning a Highway last start
| Race 3 - 1:20PM RYDGES PARRAMATTA HANDICAP (1800 METRES) |
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Imanui has given away big starts in all three of his runs this time in but really savaged the line. Shapes like he wants every inch of the 1800m now. It’s been a month between runs but he has won off a four week gap in the past (and without the bridging trial he has had this time in). Hoping he can position up a few pairs closer from barrier 4. Mapmaker has similar form lines which tie in with Special Missile and has to be a knockout hope at double figure odds.
Danger: Alward is a genuine Metrop horse according to Chris Waller. He didn’t get the clearest run last start but got the job done in the end at $1.65. Up to 59.5kg and back 200m in trip is the worry given he is a $2 pop here. Vaucluse Bay for the multiples.
How to play it: Imanui WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Imanui’s last start finding the line
| Race 4 - 2:00PM KARI STAN FOX STAKES (1500 METRES) |
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This year’s Stan Fox looks a lovely assignment for Addictive Nature. This flashy Savabeel colt broke the class record on debut before he flattened out a touch second up. He just wanted 1400m and got that in the Ming Dynasty where he held off the late charge of Assimilate, who spotted Additive Nature 13.6m at tthe 400m mark using Punters Intel data. Out to 1500m looks to suit Addictive Nature even better with Bjorn Baker believing that the mile will be his best trip. It does look that way from what we’ve seen of him so far. He makes his own luck and will take beating again.
Danger: The Mission looks to be flying off his trials. He dominated from the front in the Group One Champagne Stakes the last time we saw him. He’s the wild card here. Think Gold Standard will struggle to turn the tables on Addictive Nature while wanted to see a touch more from Trapeze Artist first up, despite his big weight. Follow Sanctioned when he gets out further again.
How to play it: Addictive Nature WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Addictive Nature winning the Ming Dynasty
| Race 5 - 2:35PM THEO MARKS STAKES (1300 METRES) |
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Deploy has won six from eight since being gelded which includes a Group Two win in Queensland and broke track record in the Show County last start, albeit on very quick day at Randwick courtesy of a tail wind. He has a fitness edge on a couple of his key rivals and maps to control the race from the front. If he runs sub 34s for his last 600m he is going to be very hard to run down regardless of how good Egg Tart turns out to be. His last four wins have all been by half a length or less but he is a winner!
Danger: There’s plenty of talk about Egg Tart but want to see her come back before chiming in at $2.50. It’s not an easy transition to make from filly to mare, and take on open grade horses. Dixie Blossoms is always a standout at the trials, and this time in has been no different.
How to play it: Deploy WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Deploy winning the Show County last start
| Race 6 - 3:10PM IRRESISTIBLE POOLS SHERACO STAKES (1200 METRES) |
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Daysee Doom looks to be airborne off her trials. She is a five-year-old but has only had 12 starts (for six wins and three placings) so this could very well be her best campaign yet. In her first trial she went to the line with Happy Clapper in a hot heat that included Winx and Pariah before beating notoriously good trialler English despite being under a hold. She’ll be in the first couple and looks sharp enough to give this a shake over 1200m first up despite it being a trip short of her best.
Danger: Omei Sword possesses the ability to blow these away. However, from barrier 11 Chris Waller has been very forthright in saying that she’ll be ridden stone cold given she has bled in the past. She went down on her nose at the start first up so to run the sectionals she did late, is a credit to her desire. Bonny O’reilly is too honest to leave out but she looks vulnerable as favourite this time.
How to play it: Daysee Doom EACH WAY ($7 TAB Fixed Odds)
Daysee Doom’s latest trial – August 31
| Race 7 - 3:50PM THE RUN TO THE ROSE (1200 METRES) |
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Menari confirmed his status as the benchmark three-year-old sprinter first up in the Rosebud with a powerful display. This big, imposing colt monstered his rivals handing Siege Of Quebec (scratched here) his first defeat. Josh Parr will need to be on his game from the wide draw as to not be posted but he has enormous faith in this son of Snitzel so won’t be afraid to use some early petrol to carve across to settle in the first few. We lost the leader Siege Of Quebec with Siege Of Quebec coming out. Menari is playing on his home track and finally gets a chance to right the wrong of Pariah getting one up on him way back in January when he was luckless.
Danger: Pariah is a sharp colt himself and got the job done with some authority in the San Domenico first up on the back of a masterful Blake Shinn ride. He maps to get a very cosy run from barrier 3 tucked in behind the speed. Don’t discount Shogun Sun who beat Addictive Nature easily two back in fast time before running well at the Gold Coast in an unsuitable race. Want to see Kementari do it again.
How to play it: Menari WIN ($2.50 TAB)
Menari’s Rosebud win over Siege Of Quebec
| Race 8 - 4:30PM FUGEN HANDICAP (1200 METRES) |
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Tango Rain is a pro and think he’ll prove too classy for BM90 company. He’s already Group Three-placed when second to Star Turn as an early three-year-old but doubt it’ll be too long before he gets a black type win next to his name. Thought he was really brave first up after covering ground and wasn’t entitled to finish as close as he did. Then won with a show of sustained speed at Rosehill running home in 33.89s making it very hard for those chasing him. Punters Intel data reveals Tango Rain ran his fastest split of 10.42s between the 1000-800m hitting tops of 72km/h to take up the running. Have got plenty of time for the second horse there in Marsupial. He shouldn’t have too much trouble punching up to hold the lead again this week.
Danger: Mana is flying at the moment and thought his trial between runs was particularly strong. Bowman rides and drawn well. Denpurr didn’t get her chance to hit top gear first up. She’ll need the leaders to overdo it to get her chance from back in the field but the way Kerrin McEvoy is riding at the moment, he’s capable of a duck and weave ride. Supreme Effort next best.
How to play it: Tango Rain WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds)
Tango Rain held off all challengers at Rosehill
| Race 9 - 5:10PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1400 METRES) |
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The Pharoah was a touch plain to the eye behind Smart Missile last start but suspect he didn’t quite get 1500m. Back to 1400m here he can bounce back. His form prior to that was very good with a dominant Rosehill win and seconds to Arbeitsam and Awoke. Shouldn’t have too much trouble rolling across from the wide draw to take up the lead in his own time. Another horse that fits the profile of being rock-hard fit and maps to lead. And another Gerald Ryan trained horse. He could be in for a big day on his home patch.
Danger: Don’t be surprised to see both Choice Larga and Galaxy Warrior run cheeky races right down the in the weights and at big odds. Choice Larga has raced without luck all campaign while Galaxy Warrior, although unproven in this grade, kicks of over 1400m which suggests he is tuned up. Interlocuter is an exciting staying prospect but anything short of a mile looks a query.
How to play it: The Pharoah WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
The Pharaoh winning two back over this same track and trip
