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By Brad Gray

6. Moridan has to tick two boxes in this. He tackles the mile for the first time and has never raced on anything worse than a Soft 5. After waywardness cost him first up, he went straight to the front at Warwick Farm second up and never gave his rivals a chance over 1400m. Tim Clark pairs well with the three-year-old.

Dangers:11. Bedford Square has been mixing her distances but holding her form really well this campaign. A heavy track mile sets up well for her now having found a couple too sharp on a good track last start. 4. Satirical Glory is on a Derby path for John Sargent and did enough first up over 1400m to suggest he is on track. 7. Jungle Book is very honest, hard fit and a heavy track makes him a player, as it does with 8. Diva Bella.

How To Play It: Moridan WIN

7. Greece showed natural speed to take up a prominent spot in both of her trial wins so imagine James McDonald uses that on debut to offset the draw. We’ll find out on Saturday if the raps are justified but the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained filly certainly looked the part in her trials. The latest of those she ambled clear at the finish to put three lengths on her rivals and did it with ease. Both of those hitouts were on good tracks so she’s an unknown on heavy ground, and very heavy ground at that. She is a full sister to Loving Gaby who ran fourth in the 2019 Golden Slipper behind Kiamichi on a Heavy 8, before running second to Microphone in the Sires’ on a Soft 7. The stable only have one shot at qualifying for the Slipper so she’ll be ready to go.

Dangers: The same can’t be said for 1. Russian Conquest. Peter and Paul Snowden have the luxury of knowing their filly is already in the field. Capitalist and Sepoy were both beaten in their final lead up before winning the Golden Slipper. Russian Conquest will run well but this is only the semi final for her. 5. Seven Veils comes through a midweek maiden but the winner Conqueror looks a smart horse and she covered ground throughout. She’s Extreme ran fourth and subsequently ran second in the Sweet Embrace. The concern is that her heavy track trial was the worst of her three. 6. Dashing Legend comes through that same race and paraded as a big, robust filly.

How To Play It: Greece WIN

7. Showcourt is a half brother to Doubtland. That’s a fair head start in determining whether he’ll handle a heavy track. Doubtland was a brilliant wet track two-year-old. His Kindergarten Stakes win on a heavy track back in 2020 was exceptional. Showcourt stepped out on debut at Canterbury and after being forced back from the wide draw, worked home nicely behind 4. Psychiatrist who led all of the way. Swapping Canterbury for Randwick looks a huge plus for the Snitzel colt trained by Chris Waller, and James McDonald jumps on at start two. Certainly mindful that he was sent around an $11 chance in a maiden two weeks ago and now we’re taking a similar price in a Group Two but there isn’t a big gap between the two levels this season.

Dangers: 1. Sejardan looked to work well on a heavy track at Canterbury recently alongside mudlark Sky Command. It might be dangerous to read too much into that but the wettest track he has seen on race day is a Soft 5 and that was last start when third in the Inglis Millenium. Keen to see him out to 1200m. 2. Shalatin noticeably peaked on his run first up in the Silver Slipper, which makes sense given Joe Pride only has eyes for the Golden Slipper given Shalatin has already got enough prizemoney to guarantee a run. Psychiatrist never looked like losing at Canterbury and he looks the likely leader again. 6. Richon’s second to Promitto at Newcastle reads well now. Forgive 3. Calgary Stampede last start.

How To Play It: Showcourt WIN

5. Sheraz has five lengths to turn around on 4. Mightybeel from the Parramatta Cup but a very testing track will see him close that gap. The French import wasn’t suited when the speed came out of the race in the middle stages turning it into a sprint home. He was no hope, being a genuine mile and a half profile of horse. The five-year-old won out to 3000m overseas. Thought Sheraz did more than enough given the circumstances, holding down fifth. He hasn’t been missed by bookmakers, despite going around at $41 first up, but we can thank James McDonald jumping on for that. That could be a little push in itself. What really leaps off the page when assessing this stayer’s chances is his ability to handle heavy tracks. He’ll no doubt be better again third and fourth up out over further again but a slogging 2000m test should see him in the finish.

Dangers: 4. Mightybeel produced outstanding sectionals when seventh at Randwick after a seven week freshen and backed that up with an arrogant win out to 1900m. The knock is the heavy track. It blunts his finish, as we saw at the backend of last preparation when second to Polly Grey. 11. No Compromise produced the second quickest last 200m split across the entire meeting when runner up to Mightybeel. He is flying. 6. Luncies was the equal to Mightybeel first up but hasn’t been sighted since. The four weeks between runs is the knock, and that he is untried on heavy ground. This mightn’t be his race but there’s a big win in Luncies over the carnival. 7. Zeyrek and 13. Toomuchtobear for the multiples.

How To Play It: Sheraz EACH WAY

2. Eduardo and Nature Strip have met eight times already. Nature Strip holds a 5-3 record. Take out the 1200m races, however, and Eduardo edges is 3-2. At the peak of their powers, Nature Strip is at his best over 1200m. Eduardo more so over 1000-1100m. Throw a heavy track into the mix, there is a lot in favour of Eduardo. The duo went toe-to-toe in this race 12 months ago and Eduardo scored an unlikely victory after being clearly headed by Nature Strip in the straight, smashing the track record. Nature Strip won’t beat Eduardo in a dog fight. We’ve seen that a couple of times in the past already. Nature Strip wins his races by building and building through his races. With Eduardo finding the front in this from a lower draw, it doesn’t play to Nature Strip’s strengths. With Eduardo at the price.

Dangers: There is no denying that 1. Nature Strip is the best sprinter in the country but this is the type of set up that can see him toppled, and has seen him beaten in the past. Has finished top two in his last nine starts now. Perhaps a slow getaway cost him victory in the Lightning Stakes first up. 4. Splintex’s first up form isn’t overly inspiring on paper, reading 5:0-0-2 and his trainer Mark Newnham has become resigned to the fact that he simply needs the run, but we know he handles heavy tracks. Was beaten five lengths in last year’s Challenge Stakes.

How To Play It: Eduardo WIN

Peter and Paul Snowden have won this Listed feature with stable stars Redzel and Wild Ruler in recent years and although 3. Mazu has some way to go to reach their heights, what he did first up at Rosehill sets him up beautifully for the autumn. The son of Maurice is certainly on his way. Interestingly, the stable have also used this race as a launch pad to tackle the G1 Galaxy with fellow three-year-olds Wild Ruler and Cosmic Force. Mazu resumed a gelding two weeks ago and executed his race to perfection, finding a spot, settling and accelerating. The time stacked up on the clock too. He maps well again in this second up, stalking the leaders in what should be a genuinely run race. Is yet to race on a heavy track but has two wins to his name on soft tracks.

Dangers: 11. Zapateo has a length margin to turn around on Mazu and meets him 1kg worse off. 12. A Very Fine Red is an underrated filly that should have been a last start winner. Has really responded to being quietly ridden. 2. Profiteer contested the G1 Lightning first up. He was too keen in the middle stages. 6. Dragonstone and 13. Sky Command both love wet tracks

How To Play It: Mazu WIN

An opportunistic piece of placement from Richard and Michael Freedman with their mare 9. Forbidden Love sees her the horse to beat, despite this race never really being on the radar. Such was the dominance of her win in the Guy Walter Stakes last Saturday at Randwick on the Heavy 10 surface, it prompted the back up. That’s a huge advantage she has over her rivals in this. Not only the significant fitness edge but the proven ability to plough through the mud. She was running well last campaign without ever threatening. Perhaps wet tracks was the missing ingredient. Her equally brilliant win in the G1 Surround Stakes a year ago also came on a track with the sting out of it. Expecting Hugh Bowman to be positive from the wide draw without a designated leader here.

Dangers: Suspect what we’ve seen from 8. Laws Of Indices in his two Australian runs is just a teaser for what lies ahead. Convinced this import is top class. His run in the Golden Eagle covering ground was enormous while he clocked the fastest last 600m in the race first up behind Lost And Running. His Group One win in France was on a soft track. 3. Private Eye produced incredible late splits to win first up last campaign over 1200m. The wet track won’t bother him. It’ll just be a matter of how big of a head start he can afford to give away. 10. Lighthouse has crashed her way through the grades in Melbourne and comes here a last start Group One placegetter behind Tofane. 5. Special Reward and 6. Wild Planet have place hopes.

How To Play It: Forbidden Love WIN

The ride on 1. Anamoe in the Hobartville Stakes was perfect yet he still only scrambled home so can see why he is black odds instead of $1.70 like he was last start but tipping James Cummings has his star colt exactly where he wants him out to the mile third up. Remember, the Queen Elizabeth Stakes is said to be his grand final over the autumn so he is perhaps being trained a little differently. He is racing like a genuine miler-2000m horse. The two wettest tracks Anamoe has raced on were in the Golden Slipper and the Sires’ Produce. Both surfaces were rated Soft 7 and he had no problem getting through it, producing two enormous efforts. Tactics will be interesting given the lack of pressure on paper. Wouldn’t be surprised to see James McDonald stride forward to take bad luck out of the equation.

Dangers: 3. Hilal looks the obvious threat through the Hobartville, which has provided the past nine winners of the Randwick Guineas. He only has a narrow margin to turnaround on Anamoe and was arguably on inferior ground, closer to the inside at Rosehill. 2. Converge found himself too far back from the draw and peaked on his run, holding down third. He maps perfectly this time from a middle draw. Has been at his most explosive on good tracks to date. 10. War Eternal skipped the Hobartville, instead putting a gap on his BM78 rivals. He is proven on wet ground and has his tail up on the back of a soft win. 7. Military Expert will likely roll forward which gives him some chance of running a competitive race.

How To Play It: Anamoe WIN

7. Le Gai Soleil is a half sister to Danzdanzdance and their shared love for wet tracks certainly runs in the family. Le Gai Soleil has had eight starts on soft and heavy tracks for five wins. First up the five-year-old, who has always been an explosive galloper when presented fresh, zipped straight past her rivals in BM88 company over 1300m. With 1. Polly Grey condensing the weights, she is very well in with 53kg. Kerrin McEvoy sticks. There isn’t a lot of speed in this race and she’ll settled in the second half of the field but come the latter half of the Randwick card, perhaps that’ll be no disadvantage. She has always promised to be a Group class mare and she sets up beautifully here second up out to the mile on a heavy track to prove it.

Dangers: Brock Ryan on 8. Le Lude could take advantage of the lack of pressure to sit outside of the likely leader 5. Fill Of Fun. Like the way she knuckled down last start in the Millie Fox behind Expat and Belluci Babe to run third and clear out from the fourth-placed Krone. The wet track won’t bother her either. If 1. Polly Grey’s task wasn’t already hard enough in carrying 61kg, giving 7 and 8kg away to the rest of the field, she also jumps from the outside gate. On a dry track she’d be a $20 chance. On a heavy track, however it’s a different story. She has won four from seven on heavy tracks including last preparation over 2000m, where she put Mightybeel to the sword. Not sure where 6. Stray will fit in over the carnival but she could have a minor role to play in the fillies races.

How To Play It: La Gai Soleil WIN

10. Never Talk clocked the fastest closing splits of the meeting first up when third behind Rule Of Law, a sprinter that is absolutely airborne. This four-year-old mare is lengths better on wet tracks. Her recent form tells you that. What she has done on good tracks in her past couple of preparations is nowhere near as impressive as what she has done on soft and heavy ground. Her Light Fingers second on a soft track at Randwick was brilliant. The Kris Lees-trained galloper has raced on heavy ground only twice so far in her career, winning them both, albeit in inferior company to what she faces here. One was at Muswellbrook over 900m, the other a BM78. With the run under her belt and a barrier which will see her balance up somewhere midfield, her rivals will do well to hold her out.

Dangers: 6. Tricky Gal is a rocket fresh. Her first up record reads 5:3-2-0. She ran second to Minhaaj first up last preparation in a Group Three mares race over 1200m, clocking sizzling late splits. Her last 600m was 32.91 with a last 200m of 11.08. The campaign prior to that she split Tailleur and Icebath first up. 4. Belluci Babe has never raced better and is very fit going into this. Handles wet tracks okay, but isn’t quite as comfortable as a couple of her obvious threats. 11. Geist and 2. Marboosha are both capable mares.

How To Play It: Never Talk WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Randwick meeting