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Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Royal Randwick. There are winners to be found for nine races!
Winx returns for Round Two of her spring campaign in the $250,000 Group Two Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) at Royal Randwick. Meanwhile, The Everest hopefuls Redzel and Spieth headline the $150,000 Group Three Concorde Stakes (1000m).
The rail is out 6m the entire and the track is rated a Good 4.
| Race 1 - 12:10PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1300 METRES) |
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Have been waiting for the return of Beau Geste. Loved the way this Street Cry colt won at Canterbury on debut with the best part of his race being across the line where he was going right away from his rivals. He has trialled twice – both alongside stablemate and one of the Golden Rose favourites in Kementari. He has enough early speed to kick up and hold the inside to settle just in behind likely leaders Albumin and Super Ex, who do have a fitness edge on him but tackling 1300m first up suggests Beau Geste has done plenty of work. Punters can confidently follow him through the grades over the early part of the spring.
Danger: Super Ex has done nothing wrong in his career to date and will be up on the speed making his own luck again. Keen to see if he can prove himself worthy of tackling black type races over the spring. Andaz is a full to Arinosa and knows how to win.
How to play it: Beau Geste ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Beau Geste’s Canterbury debut back in May
| Race 2 - 12:45PM NATIONAL JOCKEYS TRUST HANDICAP (2000 METRES) |
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No prizes for finding Up ‘N’ Rolling at even money but he’s hard to make a case against in this field. He returned with a dominant Canterbury win, where he broke the class record. Can only improve off that first up showing and although straight out to 2000m, it shouldn’t stop him. Kerrin McEvoy will need to keep his wits about him as he shapes as a horse that likes to roll into his races with momentum so the inside draw poses a slight query, if there was one. Chris Waller expects this five-year-old to charge through the grades before earning a crack in Group company.
Danger: Wahng Wah was run off her feet at Canterbury last start before spearing through late along the fence. The form guide reads eighth but she was only 1.5L off the winner. If Up ‘N’ Rolling is strung up on the inside, she could be the one swooping home with an uninterrupted passage down the outside.
How to play it: Up ‘N’ Rolling WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds)
Up ‘N’ Rolling’s last start romp
| Race 3 - 1:20PM TAB SUPPORTS JOCKEYS TRUST MILE (1600 METRES) |
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More To Gain loomed to win first up but he blew out over the last 100m or so. That was first up after 35 weeks off one barrier trial so it’s understandable that he needed the outing. What was most promising is that for the first time in a long time he jumped with the rest of the field. He’s a month between runs but that is largely how he has been managed throughout his career given his well-documented feet issue. Slight query on what will be a Good track at Randwick but have got no doubt he is the best horse in the race.
Danger: Mandalong Kiss might be able to settle a touch closer in a race lacking a designated leader. She was luckless last start. Just needs to jump clean. Jaminzah comes back to Sydney after five straight runs at Flemington. He has won his last two but can’t get him as short as $2.90. Have to respect the Waller/Bowman combo though.
How to play it: More To Gain WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
More To Gain peaked in his run first up
| Race 4 - 2:00PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES) |
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Makfi Lass was brilliant winning at Scone two back before chasing Care To Think home last start. Care To Think looks one of the more promising Highway winners we’ve had recently. They made their runs together and she was chopped out and although she was never going to beat the winner, she should’ve finished much closer. She jumped $5.50 that day so the current $7.50 about her with TAB Fixed Odds appeals. There looks to be plenty of speed and she should be able to slot in just worse than midfield before chasing down the middle. Since July 1, Brett Cavanaugh has competed in five Highways and walked away with four seconds and a win.
Danger: Superstar Bob didn’t quite measure up in town at his last two so back to this company he’ll feel much more at home. He beat Highway stalwart Nic’s Vendetta last campaign in a Highway. Schedule is flying for Mack Griffith while you must respect any Matt Dunn runner, so Count Cumani goes into all multiples.
How to play it: Makfi Lass EACHWAY ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Makfi Lass behind Care To Think
| Race 5 - 2:35PM CONCORDE STAKES (1000 METRES) |
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We've lost the leader in Super Too but still inclined to stick with Redzel. The Snowden-trained sprinter went to a whole new level last campaign and was tipped off by English first up over 1000m. His Everest credentials go on the line today so tipping he'll be very forward for this assignment. Has trialled as well as ever and the noises coming from the stable suggest this could be his best preparation yet. That says something given he claimed a Group One over the Brisbane winter.
Danger: Spieth is a serious animal and this could be the spring which sees him prove himself one the country’s elite sprinters. However, if he is going to be vulnerable this campaign, it’s first up over 1000m. Nieta needs to prove herself up to this level but she is dynamite fresh.
How to play it: Redzel WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds)
Redzel going down narrowly first up over 1000m last preparation
| Race 6 - 3:10PM FURIOUS STAKES (1200 METRES) |
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In the Silver Shadow only 0.4L separated Formality, Alizee and Champagne Cuddles. Formality was allowed to dictate from the front on a day that suited those on speed but all honours go her way, fighting back to beat Alizee. Surprised the lack of respect in the market with her posted third favourite at $3.50. She should either lead or sit outside of the leader depending on what former Kiwi filly Joyfilly Ours does on her debut for Waterhouse and Bott. The firmer the better for Formality and she is a fighter.
Danger: From a future perspective, Champagne Cuddles was arguably the best run in the Silver Shadow. The worry is the barrier. Does Tye Angland chance his arm and track Formality across and risk being posted? Or does he drop back and look for cover? Alizee had every possible last start but still had some cleaning up to do in the coat. I Am Excited is the wildcard and shouldn’t be double figure odds. She was luckless in what looks the hottest three-year-old sprint race of the spring so far behind Menari.
How to play it: Formality WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and I Am Excited WIN ($12)
Replay of the Silver Shadow Stakes
| Race 7 - 3:50PM TATTERSALLS CLUB CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600 METRES) |
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Winx should have little trouble making it 19 straight but at $1.08 she is hard to make an earn out of so again we turn our attention to TAB’s ‘Winx Out’ market. Red Excitement was outstanding first up in the Warwick Stakes holding fourth. He is in the twilight of his career at eight but it’s not inconceivable to think he could be in for his best ever campaign. He’ll push forward with the likes of stablemate Harper’s Choice and Lasqueti Spirit to be handy in a race without too much obvious speed. Big watch on Life Less Ordinary.
How to play it: Red Excitement WINX OUT ($6 TAB)
Red Excitement behind Winx (what a win!)
| Race 8 - 4:30PM TATTERSALLS CLUB TRAMWAY STAKES (1400 METRES) |
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Invincible Gem returned with a fantastic win in the Group Two Missile Stakes where she took the scalp of her three-time Group One-winning stablemate Le Romain. Many believe her to be the most improved horse in Australia and it’s hard to argue against that. We still don’t really know what her ceiling is yet either. Out to 1400m suits even better than the 1200m and she maps to stalk Ecuador who looks to be one of her main dangers. She got under punters guards a little first up but certainly won’t this start.
Danger: Ecuador will be wheeling along out in front and doesn’t have to improve much on his first up third behind Winx and Foxplay to take this out. 'Unlucky' doesn’t seem to do Tom Melbourne justice when describing his first up run. He is going too well not to figure in the finish again, despite staying at 1400m. Happy Clapper has trialled as well as ever.
How to play it: Invincible Gem WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Don’t forget how dominant Invincible Gem was in the Missile
| Race 9 - 5:10PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1400 METRES) |
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This is a perfect race for Washington Heights. He never got a crack at his rivals last start, along with Tom Melbourne. He is short enough at $1.85 TAB Fixed Odds given he’s going to need the gaps at the right time from barrier 1 (after the early scratching of Cool Chap) but all being equal, he should put these away before tackling black type races over the early part of the spring. Perhaps Kerrin McEvoy can have him a touch closer from the draw? Either way, he’s clearly the horse to beat.
Danger: Veladero poked around in Group races over the spring and was rarely too far away. He returns a gelding and looks to have his mid right on the job at the trials, the latest in which he made every post a winner. The 1400m is short of Dawn Wall’s best trip but she is classy and will be running on.
How to play it: Washington Heights WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds)
Look away now if you backed Washington Heights or Tom Melbourne
