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By Brad Gray

5. Voldemort won a Scone maiden over 1000m on debut as a $6 pop. Not the most conventional lead in to be competitive in a Group Three on Day 1 of The Championships thereafter, but it was no ordinary win. He appeared to be giving away an impossible start turning for home but made up incredible late ground to score an unlikely victory. What did he beat there? Perhaps very little but it was the manner in which he did it that requires serious respect. James McDonald goes on for start two and a quick dive into this colt’s pedigree suggests that he should relish the wet Randwick track. He is sired by Not a Single Doubt out of Devious Maid, a full sister to Bring Me The Maid who was a swimmer. Confident that Voldemort will be very strong late and don’t share that same confidence with many of his rivals in this.

Dangers: 1. Semillon is the two-year-old with the runs on the board in this. He set a strong early speed in the G1 Blue Diamond last start and was only beaten 1.3L at the finish. Daumier and Jacquinot subsequently ran fourth and sixth in the Golden Slipper through that race. The query is the five weeks between runs. There was a lot to like about the way 4. Nominator quickened from in front at Gosford first up to put her rivals to the sword. 3. Spacewalk was ridden with cover on a heavy track at Canterbury last start and scored a soft win in the end. The subsequent form through that race hasn’t stacked up since, but he was more dominant that the margin suggests. 9. Asteria is a full sister to Profiteer and has looked sharp in her trials wins, as has fellow debutant 10. Ginger’s Gal.

How To Play It: Voldemort WIN

10. Cap Estel looks to have been penalised to harshly in the early market for her last start 9th. It was in the G1 Coolmore Classic! She tackled that race with a benchmark rating of 69. Polly Grey finished behind her in 10th and subsequently just missed when second to Mount Popa last Saturday. Hinged and Promise Of Success have also franked the strength of that form line. Prior to that run, Cap Estel won a Midway Handicap by near three lengths on a Heavy 10 at Randwick over the mile. Back to three-year-old company and having ticked the heavy track box, she has to be somewhere in the finish. Perhaps barrier 1 isn’t ideal but Cap Estel has enough gate speed to put herself just about anywhere in the run.

Dangers: 4. Kelvedon Road has zero early speed, in fact, he tends to half miss the start, but he’s a raw talent that should get the heavy track. Have been desperate to see him tackle the mile. He was well held by 1. Flying Crazy in the Canberra Guineas two starts ago but that was on a good track. Three starts ago he comfortably held 2. Jalmari on a soft track at Canberra. Yes, Jalmari has since run the race of his life in the Ajax Stakes behind two live Doncaster Mile contenders but the price discrepancy seems unwarranted. Jalmari did really catch the eye late over the 1500m there as a $101 chance racing way out of his grade. 3. Straight Arron is an untapped talent but he was beaten in a Warwick Farm midweeker last start at longer odds than he is in this!

How To Play It: Cap Estel WIN

12. Mamounia has only has one race start in 12 weeks leading into what will be a test of stamina over 2000m but Godolphin look to have a very talented staying filly on their hands. Back in late December she stepped out to this trip for the first time and she put a widening margin on her rivals. It was only a maiden but most in this field fit into that same category. We didn’t see the daughter of Medaglia D’Oro again until early March where she resumed over 1300m at Newcastle. That was on a heavy track. If the race was 1400m and not 1300m she’d have won. She just wasn’t sharp enough to pick up the winner but she really savaged the line. That was four weeks ago now, with James Cummings giving her a tickover trial since then at Rosehill.

Dangers: 5. Charity Spirit has had a much more conventional preparation, tackling this fourth up. She was only beaten two lengths in the Kembla Grange Classic on a heavy track and raced like she would relish 2000m. 6. In De Summertime is chasing four straight wins, coming into this on the back of a dominant Wagga win over 1800m against the older horses. That sets her up well here. It’s easy to make the case that 1. Roots is the most talented filly in this field at this point in their careers but how can you be confident she’ll handle the track given her run in the G2 Phar Lap? You can’t. 7. I’m Divine threw the race away at Canberra last start. Again, however, she never looked comfortable on a Heavy 10 at Randwick in the G1 Surround, running last. 3. Achira does tick the heavy track box.

How To Play It: Mamounia WIN

4. She’s Ideel backs up from the Tancred and perhaps didn’t find herself in the best ground. Her second behind Verry Elleegant this preparation was on a heavy 10 at Randwick, which might see her worth another chance.

Dangers: 3. Surprise Baby was beaten in excess of seven lengths in the Australia Cup but liked the way he worked to the line. He sets up well back in grade out to 2400m. 2. Great House peaks up himself third up, needing to turn around a two length margin on Stockman. 6. Zeyrek can win but he looks too well found while 13. Alakahan is a roughie that can run well.

How To Play It: She's Ideel EACH WAY

3. Another One returns a year later to go one better than 12 months ago. The four-year-old ran second to Art Cadeau on the back of an identical preparation. Gary Colvin qualified for the final in a similar way before freshening Another One up electing to trial him instead of giving him another run. He wasn’t a dominant winner of his Wagga Qualifier but he didn’t need to be. That would have topped him off perfectly and the way he cruised to victory in a Wagga trial since was impressive. The other important box this son of Super One ticks is his ability to handle all surfaces. We have to go right back to his debut to find his only run on a heavy track but he made Lion’s Roar work for his win there while his soft track runs thereafter also suggest Saturday’s conditions won’t pose a problem.

Dangers: 7. Anethole and 8. Commando Hunt come out of the only qualifier run on a wet track. That could prove significant. Love the booking of Nash Rawiller of Commando Hunt and his heavy track stats read 4: 2-1-0. Saturday’s track brings him right into play at odds. On raw talent, 6. Edit picks himself but how will he cope with a Heavy 10? The last time 1. Cavalier Charles raced on a heavy track he bled so overlook that failure. 4. Testator Silens has won five of his six starts and 0.2 lengths is the largest margin in the latest three of those. He is a fighter and a proven heavy tracker. 5. Zoo Station has never raced better but would be more confident about her chances on firmer footing. It’s hard to knock 2. Far Too Easy while 9. Tap ‘N’ Run and 11. To The Nines can run well at odds.

How To Play It: Another One EACH WAY

12. Fireburn blew her rivals to smithereens in the Golden Slipper. In what was looking likely to be a thin year for two-year-old talent, Gary Portelli’s filly stood up when it counted. She relished the fast speed up front, and she won’t get that here, but her late splits were so dominant over her rivals that it’s hard to imagine anything that finished behind her turning the tables. Especially when you add into the mix that she was flattened at the 650m mark. Her last 600m split of 35.23 was five lengths faster than the next best and her last 200m (11.74s) alone was 3.5 lengths faster than the second quickest. She is already a Randwick Heavy 10 winner when she took out the Sweet Embrace Stakes prior to the Slipper and everything she has done to date suggests that she’ll relish the 1400m.

Dangers: 13. She’s Extreme wasn’t going well enough to trouble Fireburn in the Golden Slipper but she didn’t get a clear passage. There was little between her and Fireburn in the Sweet Embrace and she too profiles like she’ll eat up the 1400m. Her dam won out to 2000m. 10. Showcourt should have won the Todman last start when a luckless fourth behind Sejardan. He’s the wild card, despite still being a maiden. Wary. 7. Magic wasn’t able to replicate his eye catching debut in the Silver Slipper behind Best Of Bordeaux when sent around favourite in the Pago Pago. He was well held by Rise Of The Masses and Sweet Ride. Should appreciate 1400m being out of Rising Romance but wanted to see more from him late last start. 8. Warby hit the line to run second in the Black Opal on debut.

How To Play It: Fireburn WIN

The Tulloch Stakes has provided four of the past five winners of this race with the exception being last year, but it still provided the runner up. Enter 5. Regal Lion. His Tulloch run was as good an ATC Derby trial as you’ll ever see coming through that race especially when you consider it was over 1850m instead of 2000m. It doesn’t take much imagination to conclude that he’d have won it at Rosehill on a heavy track. The Kiwi youngster was thundering home the last 200m. If that run was indicative enough, we know he stays having run third in the NZ Derby. Then throw into the mix that Murray Baker is chasing a sixth ATC Derby and James McDonald takes the ride, there’s a lot to like about the set up for Regal Lion. He has run of two heavy tracks in the past but both were over 1400m.

Dangers: 15. Benaud had a sharper turn of foot than Regal Lion in the Tulloch but was simply outstayed in the concluding stages. John O’Shea looks to have got the timing of Benaud’s Derby tilt spot on. 1. Hitotsu is a freak. On a dry track he’d be a clear top pick. The query is the bottomless track where stamina trumps raw talent. Second up over 2400m on a Randwick Heavy 10 four weeks between runs. It’s one hell of a task. The Alister Clark typically hasn’t been a great guide to this race but 7. War Eternal’s run prior to that on a heavy track in the Randwick Guineas behind Converge and Anamoe sees him warrant respect. 3. Forgot You brings that same Anamoe form line while reluctant to overlook 2. Alegron knowing that he’ll see the trip out.

How To Play It: Regal Lion WIN

1. Nature Strip chases the threepeat of TJ wins and we’ve learnt to expect the best of him come grand final day. Prior to last year’s TJ win and his Everest win in October, Nature Strip was beaten in his final lead up. The seven-year-old has been brilliant on the last three occasions he has raced over 1200m. The pressure of a 1200m race is very different to that of a 1000m or 1100m scamper and it allows James McDonald to let Nature Strip find his rhythm. Once he clicks into that cruising speed he breaks the hearts of his rivals by just gradually building into his race. Love the wide draw for Nature Strip too as it gives McDonald all the time in the world to slide across to travel outside of Eduardo. He'll bounce back from last start. He always does.

Dangers: 2. Eduardo and Nature Strip go toe-to-toe for the 10th time on Saturday and the verdict is now only 5-4 in favour of Nature Strip after the Challenge Stakes result a month ago. However, Nature Strip is 3-0 in their respective clashes over 1200m. On the topic of the Challenge Stakes, while those two have been kicking up their heels, 6. Shelby Sixtysix has won a Maurice McCarten and a G1 Galaxy. The heavier the better for Shelby. Can he win? Absolutely he can. 3. Masked Crusader’s most recent two runs were down the Flemington straight and he never looked likely. His two best runs recently both came over the Randwick 1200m, however. 4. Zoutori ran well in this race 12 months ago while 9. Overpass also has place claims.

How To Play It: Nature Strip WIN

10. Icebath was exposed from the 1000m in the All Star Mile last start before failing to let down on the firmer Flemington track. Forgive her that. Also want to be forgiving of her fourth in the Guy Walter prior to that when jumping an even money favourite behind Forbidden Love. It’s well known how much she loves wet tracks and perhaps even more significantly is her established pattern of improving deep into her preparation. It’s fourth and fifth up when she’s typically at her best. In her last three Group One races over the mile she has been beaten twice in photo finishes and was a luckless ninth in the Epsom over the spring. One of those near misses was of course in this very race 12 months ago. Should park just off midfield with the 51.5kg on her back and be scooting home through the mud.

Dangers: 1. Cascadian is asked to lump 3kg more than last year when nosing out Icebath but he looks to be going just as well heading into this, if not a touch better. He clocked the fastest closing splits in the All Star Mile, which Zaaki controlled from outside of the leader. 16. Forbidden Love is deadset thrown in with 50kg. She tackled this race last year with 49.5kg as a three-year-old and has won two Group Ones and a Group Two since. The only question she needs to answer is running out a strong Randwick mile on a very testing track. 2. I’m Thunderstruck has only once raced on a heavy surface in a Class 1 at Sale but he’s all class the Golden Eagle-winning gelding. Liked the run of 21. Bankers Choice in the George Ryder while also concede chances to 3. Private Eye, 5. Lighthouse, 7. Ellsberg and 15. Brutality.

How To Play It: Icebath EACH WAY

12. Smirnova raced keenly from outside of the leader in the Darby Munro last start and failed to finish off. She was heavily supported to beat Mazu that day. First up she also had excuses when never, ever getting a crack at her rivals over the 955m at Moonee Valley as a $1.70 favourite. Last start she was jumping straight out to 1200m second up on a heavy track too. The daughter of Snitzel sets up much better to tackle a testing 1200m third up now and in a race where Willy Pike will be able to find cover. If we see the same turn of foot that put a field away third up at Canterbury in her first campaign, they’ll be doing well to hold her out. There’s half a dozen genuine winning chances in this race but she is one the early market looks to have dismissed too quickly.

Dangers: 15. Party For One was beaten near five lengths in a Warwick Farm midweeker first up but thought she did enough there over 1000m. The wet track looks fine and she proved last preparation that she wouldn’t be out of her depth here. 7. Me Me Lagarde possesses a booming finish, last start running on into second behind King Of Sparta. That was 11 weeks ago and she hasn’t raced on anything worse than a Soft 5. 5. Heresy comes back from 1400m in the Surround which looks an advantage, albeit that was five weeks ago too. Has trialled brilliantly since. 4. Hellfest failed on a heavy track on debut but she has returned a much better filly and her dam Mid Summer Music loved wet tracks. Want to at least mention 1. Arcaded, 2. Sneaky Five, 10. A Very Fine Red and 13. Zapateo!

How To Play It: Smirnova EACH WAY.

All the fields, form and replays for Day 1 of The Star Championships at Randwick