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Tips by Brad Gray Brad Gray's tips and insights for Royal Randwick on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races! The rail is back in the True position while the form has been done for a soft track.
| Race 1 - 12:55PM CELLARBRATIONS HANDICAP (1400 METRES) |
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Groundbreak is flying at the moment and deserves his shot in town again. He belted Smooth Whiskey two back (who has since won and then been on the wrong side of one of the closest photo finishes you’ll ever see) before beating So Spirited, who subsequently won at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Given the Hawkes stable saddle him up, he probably still has room for improvement too. Has only been exposed to a wet track once before, on debut when second to Veranillo. Danger: All Too Soon has as much ability as any of her rivals here but she keeps doing herself no favours in being slowly away. She ran third at Kembla first up (off no trial) but first and second there have since won again, and by margins. Blinkers go on for the first time. Is this the start she finally puts it all together? Warranty stays under notice after a dominant provincial win. How to play it: Groundbreak WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds) and something small All Too Soon WIN ($11) Groundbreak winning at Wyong last start
| Race 2 - 1:35PM FORD CIVIL CONTRACTING HANDICAP (1500 METRES) |
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Just Dreaming was outstanding working her way through the grades last campaign, winning three of six and running a couple of placings. The form guide reads 11th first up which might scare a few off but I’m just treating it like a third barrier trial. Her strength is to sit handy and dig in when other horses level up to her. From back near last she lost sight of the bunny. From barrier 1, Rachel King should be able to hold the front and dictate the race. Her wet track form is rock solid too so that won’t stop her. Danger: Awoke went down on her nose at Rosehill last start. Completely forget she ever ran. Has been back to the trials and she fits into this race nicely with 56.5kg after carrying 61kg and 60kg at her last two outings. I Am Serious is a lightly raced mare with a terrific record but I can’t get her as low as $2.60 so happy to bet around her. How to play it: Just Dreaming WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and QUINELLA with Awoke ($7.50) One of Just Dreaming’s gutsy wins last preparation
| Race 3 - 2:10PM E-GROUP SECURITY SPRINT (1000 METRES) |
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Tactical Advantage kicks off a new chapter of his career under Joe Pride having formerly been with James Cummings who always held him in very high regard. He has an excellent strike rate and was desperately unlucky at Doomben the last time we saw him. He’s a sprinter that I think can progress to Group level. Have loved his two trials, Glyn Schofield sticks who knows him so well and although it’s a deep little race, there’s ample pace for Tactical Advantage to assert his class. Heavy tracks take away his turn of foot but a soft surface will be fine. He’s the best horse in the race. Back him with confidence. Danger: Machinegun Jubs went around riderless first up and was subsequently a late scratching. Don’t underestimate her. Super Maxi dropped out at Moonee Valley trying to keep up with Super Too last start. Forgive him that. A wet track over 1000m is tailor made for him. Very open race outside of Tactical Advantage! Can see Accepted running well at odds too. How to play it: Tactical Advantage WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) What Tactical Advantage of capable of…
| Race 4 - 2:45PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1800 METRES) |
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Was keen on Confidential’s chances at odds last start and thought he was very good running fourth despite being wide the trip. Inclined to stick with him here given he has been overlooked by the market again. There was only half a length between him and Dia De Reyes who is near favourite. The start before last Confidential won well at Canberra while the start prior to that he was only 2.3L off Don’t Give a Damn. Keith Dryden and Scott Collings have got this Chris Waller cast off firing and that’s been due to getting out in trip so suspect he’ll relish 1800m. Danger: Ready For Danger trounced his rivals on his home track last start and looks Matt Dunn’s top seed in the race. Has won three from five (but in those two defeats has failed spectacularly). Must respect stablemate Dia De Reyes but he has a nasty habit of missing the kick. How to play it: Confidential EACH WAY ($15 TAB Fixed Odds) Confidential battling away in fourth last start
| Race 5 - 3:20PM MCMAHONS RACECOURSE CONSTRUCTION HANDICAP (1400 METRES) |
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This looks a suitable assignment for Stonebrook to continue his winning ways. The four-year-old has won four from four and relished the extra trip to bolt in at Canterbury last start. He drops back from 1550m to 1400m but the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable have mastered this. It was recently on display with Arbeitsam, who interestingly enough, Adam Hyeronimus had plenty to do with as well and he rates Stonebrook a better prospect. Stonebrook is suited drawn out wide giving him plenty of time to amble across, get in his rhythm and grind his rivals into the ground. Danger: Passage Of Time was a touch disappointing on face value last start but it was a very deep midweeker taken out by Osbourne Bulls with Slow Burn running third. Handles the wet no problems and will be stalking Stonebrook. Pelorus Jack has a wonderful record already and suspect his best is still yet to come. How to play it: >Stonebrook WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds) Stonebrook putting his rivals away at Canterbury
| Race 6 - 3:55PM TJS SERVICES HANDICAP (1200 METRES) |
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Firsthand paraded with plenty of improvement prior to his first up third so if he bounces off that like you’d expect, he’ll take beating here second up. He is a fully mature five-year-old now and given the patient reputation of the Hawkes stable don’t be surprised to see Firsthand progress even further through the grades this time in. It’s easy to forget that he has won four of his nine starts already. From the middle gate, Blake McDougall should be able to travel in the first half. Danger: There’s plenty of dangers starting with Redouble who resumed in the same race as Firsthand and there wasn’t much between them at the finish. He is a better horse than his strike rate of one from nine suggests. To Excess possesses a booming finish and is flying while respect Vigilance’s nous to win. Zumbelina is a dry tracker. How to play it: Firsthand EACH WAY ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) There was nothing between Firsthand and Redouble
| Race 7 - 4:35PM CHAMBERS RUSSELL LAWYERS HANDICAP (2000 METRES) |
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Malmas is easy to overlook coming up from Melbourne for Chris Waller but like how he fits into this race third up after a couple of forward showings. He sprouted wings to win first up over the mile before pulling midrace at Caulfield however still finished off to run fifth. He won by seven lengths third up last time in (albeit in maiden grade!). The sting out of the track won’t harm his chances and Jay Ford is riding with plenty of confidence at the moment. The horse is versatile enough to sit much handier than he has shown recently. Danger: Karavali has worked herself back into form and 2000m on a wet track looks perfect for her now at her fifth run in. Last start was her first try beyond the mile so it should harden her up nicely for this. Lead Choreographer is very genuine now he has been gelded and little split him and Karavali last time out. How to play it: Malmas EACH WAY ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Karavali (and Lead Choreographer) last start
| Race 8 - 5:20PM ROBRICK LODGE FILANTE HANDICAP (1400 METRES) |
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Mighty Lucky has to turn the tables on Sir Plush from last start but with Oxford Poet holding the front from an inside draw, Sir Plush won’t be able to dictate the pace like he has in his past two. Throw the Waterhouse/Bott pair into the mix somewhere up the front too. Mighty Lucky maps to stalk the first couple and his second to Washington Heights also reads well for this assignment. There is no doubt the eight-year-old is in the twilight of his career but there’s still another win or two left in him yet. Danger: Takedown is a tricky runner to line up as he is dropping back in class but there’s a question mark on exactly how well he is going. The step out to 1400m does look to suit though. Would be surprised if he doesn’t figure in the money somewhere. Watch Supply And Demand with an eye to second and third up. How to play it: Mighty Lucky EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Mighty Lucky running second to Sir Plush
| Race 9 - 5:55PM A W EDWARDS HANDICAP (1800 METRES) |
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Had forgotten exactly how dominant Interlocuter was last time out until I watched the replay again (below). James Cummings has kept him nice and fresh for this 1800m assignment and a repeat performance sees him win again. Wouldn’t be surprised if he lined up as one of the favourites in the Villiers Stakes if he was to win here, which would give him a free ticket into the Doncaster Handicap with no weight on his back. He is odds on so not hard to find but it’s difficult to build much of a case against him. Little surprised he didn’t have a tickover trial in between runs though. A formula Cummings has used with great success recently. Danger: If there is a danger it comes in the way of New Tipperary. He is as tough as old boots and fought on bravely last start despite racing wide at Flemington. He’ll be much more comfortable out to 1800m. Etymology will appreciate getting away from the tight Moonee Valley track. He’s an improver.. How to play it: Interlocuter WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Interlocuter proving too classy last start
