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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Saturday's Group 1 $5 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Royal Randwick.

1. Dubai Honour (William Haggas): Winner of this race in 2023 and by a good margin and he showed his liking for Sydney with his Tancred Stakes win last Tuesday week. He enjoyed a nice run around midfield there and proved too strong at the end of the 2400m. Six of his last seven starts have been at that trip and he has a short turnaround into this race, dropping 400m. That’s really the only query. Can’t see them being anything else than positive from the wide gate and look for a spot which should be available in the second or third pair. If he’s allowed to wind up we’ve seen what he can do and he is a major threat.

2. Rousham Park (Hiroyasu Tanaka): Looks a quality galloper from Japan – aren’t most of them – and he’s been a little hit and miss since he’s reached Group 1 level. Hasn’t won since September 2023 where he put three wins together before going to Hong Kong and not really measuring up. The six-year-old has subsequently raced six times and been placed twice at Group 1 for a narrow defeat over 2000m last March and another close second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf over 2414m in November in the USA. Suggestions are a wide draw is okay as he’s not always the best away, hard to line up but clearly if he brings his best he’s some chance.

Ceolwulf (Bradley Photos)

3. Light Infantry Man (Ciaron Maher): It’s taken him a while to get going in Australia but he’s now won three of his last six including that dominant performance in the Australian Cup two weeks ago. Where he gets to in the run will be interesting as when he drew wide in Perth he raced up on speed and there doesn’t seem to be a lot to be gained from snagging right back against this line up. He arrives at this race at the right time, ready to peak fourth-up and while he’s probably a place chance given the depth he can run well.

4. Ceolwulf (Joe Pride): It’s not been the ideal preparation to a degree having to miss his planned second-up run but he arrives at his target with four runs under his belt and a last start winner, albeit in much easier company. That said he did some work early and had to concede weight to his rivals so there was still merit in his effort. What he wants is a solidly run race that will allow him to slot in from the outside gate without having to go back to last. We’ve seen him at his best in genuinely run mile races and if he’s allowed to relax behind a good tempo he’ll have his best chance to unleash that turn of foot. So he can’t be underestimated.

5. Tom Kitten (James Cummings): Gallant in a blanket finish to the Doncaster last week where he was forced from barrier one to make his run on the inside, where nobody really wanted to go. So to be beaten under a length it’s a run stacked with merit. This is his first attempt at 2000m since he’s been a gelding and his runaway Spring Champion win at three says the trip is no issue, he also ran fourth in the Derby last year. Draws well so he should be able to be forward of midfield and he’s one of the each-way chances.

6. Vauban (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): A little hard to judge in a way given before entering Tulloch Lodge he’d never started at 2000m and the bulk of his starts were at 3200m and above, including a number of hurdle races. The sprint he showed in winning the Sky High first-up was excellent and he backed it up in the Tancred running third after spending a lot of the straight going sideways before picking up good ground late behind Dubai Honour. He’ll get back to a degree here and look to attack them late and it’s not beyond him to be in the finish.

7. Buckaroo (Chris Waller): He’s run an acceptable race in the George Ryder first-up beaten just over two lengths but he did only pass one horse in the run. Kept up to the mark with a tickover trial and 2000m is a lot more suitable for him. Second-up last prep he won the Chelmsford, albeit narrowly over Hinged, then romped away with the Underwood and gave Via Sistina a little fright in the Turnbull. But he’s 1kg worse off at the weights. Place chance if he can lift quickly.

8. Lindermann (Chris Waller): One of the horses that holds the key to the speed and you’d have to say he deserves a win after some gallant performances in all four runs back. He battled strongly but was no match for Via Sistina in the Ranvet but held second pretty well and it makes you wonder how he didn’t win the Sky High before that in her absence. We know what we’re going to get, he’ll be on the pace and it would surprise nobody if he’s in the placings somewhere.

9. Fawkner Park (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): He’s clearly gone up a rung or two this autumn having closed his spring with a narrow Rosehill Cup win. Both runs behind Via Sistina have been excellent and he probably wasn’t suited to the slowly run Ranvet, but he still performed well to run into third. He’d appreciate a bit more tempo in this race and given he’s not been too far from the short priced favourite he has to be an each-way chance.

10. Middle Earth (Ciaron Maher): Highly touted import before he arrived and he lived up to expectation winning first-up at Flemington as favourite, beating Duke De Sessa. Found himself back last in the Australian Cup and worked past a few into fifth but beaten seven lengths there. He’s generally been most effective over 2400m and beyond and has a two week turnaround into this race. He might be one to keep an eye on for when he gets the chance to stretch out later on.

11. Geoglyph (Tetsuya Kimura): He’s clearly tackled some big Group 1s back home with a 3.4 length defeat by Romantic Warrior, a midfield finish behind Equinox and he ran fourth in the 2023 Saudi Cup but his last win was three years ago in the Japanese 2000 Guineas. His task in the Doncaster last week was made even bigger after he stepped away slowly from the outside gate and went back to last, they didn’t go quickly at all and only beat two home. It’ll be interesting to see if he can use barrier two at all but a win would be an eye opening turnaround.

Fawkner Park (Bradley Photos)

12. Via Sistina (Chris Waller): The benchmark in Australian middle distance racing and she’s had almost the perfect build up to what’s been her target all campaign. She did a great job to fend off Fangirl at the mile then won as expected in the Ranvet. She’s ticked over with a trial since then. There is a lot more depth in this race than what she’s met pretty much since she landed in Australia, due respect to her Cox Plate rivals, but she has gate one and assuming something doesn’t go horribly wrong when they all come across on that first turn she’s going to get plenty of favours in the first half. She’s no doubt the horse to beat.

13. Fangirl (SCRATCHED).

14. Deny Knowledge (Anthony & Sam Freedman): This mare is the one that could determine the fate of many in this race depending on what tactics are adopted. She ran along in front in winning the Victoria Cup first-up then didn’t get involved with Pride Of Jenni sitting fourth in the Australian Cup before making a move on the turn. She looked outsprinted early in the straight but fought back well to claim second. It would be a shock if she doesn’t work across and look to lead from where she’s drawn as her best chance would be to make this something of a test – not quite like Pride Of Jenni last year – and catch the chasers off guard.

15. Full Count Felicia (Chris Waller): If she’s ridden as she was in her Woodbine win in September then this race will be quite interesting. That day she opened up a lead of some 20-30 lengths and held them off. She led the Ranvet at not a great tempo and was safely reeled in on the home turn. She’s trialled again so she should be fitter but it would be a bit of a surprise if she could turn the tables on Via Sistina.

SPEED MAP: Deny Knowledge is crucial to the speed in the race, if she's allowed to get out in front and roll we're in for a reasonable test. Lindermann and Full Count Felicia are the others who can keep her honest or lead if for some reason she doesn't. Dubai Honour, Tom Kitten and Fawkner Park have options to be in the top half and where Via Sistina winds up will be most interesting. She should jump well and you'd imagine three back on the fence is her spot, though if the option is there she may hop off the fence. Light Infantry Man did roll forward outside the lead when he drew wide in Perth.

SELECTIONS:
12 VIA SISTINA
1 Dubai Honour
4 Ceolwulf
9 Fawkner Park

All the fields, form and replays for Day 2 of The Star Championships at Randwick