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Punter's Intelligence Wrap - Randwick Guineas Day

We saw some jockeys ride to tactical perfection on Saturday, but none better than Hugh Bowman’s front running effort on Forbidden Love in the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m).

He gave those settling behind him mathematically little chance of running the sectionals to catch him.

In testing conditions on a heavy track, Punter's Intelligence revealed although it was the only 1300m race out of that chute, the WFA event was run very slowly, with the first 700m in 44.03.

Forbidden Love, who was on a seven-day backup, was well fancied late in betting.

After leading at a leisurely tempo and conserving energy throughout, Bowman nursed the mare to approximately the 300m-250m mark before asking her for an effort where she ran the race fastest final 200m sectional in 12.20.

Look for her to continue to excel on wet tracks this preparation.

The run of returning Group 1 Epsom Winner Private Eye was full of merit, where the four-year-old gelding was ultimately unsuited with the pace and bias/pattern against him.

Additionally, he ran the meeting’s fourth-fastest 400m-200m split in 11.25 and the race’s quickest last 600m in 35.01.

He is one to follow and will improve over further distance/deeper into his preparation.

Three races were coming out of the 1600m chute, and the Randwick Guineas was the other feature Group 1 of the day.

We can make strong comparisons when comparing historical time, class, and additional factors.

There is some concern about the Guineas time after the race went out at an even pace in 62.35 for the first 1000m and ran the slowest overall time compared to the Group 3 Aspiration and the Midway Handicap.

However, there was individual sectional merit in the performance of winner Converge and dominant runner-up Anamoe.

Converge’s winning move came from settling closer to the speed, and Tim Clark timed the geldings sprint so he could steal a break from Anamoe after accelerating the race’s fastest 400m-200m split in 11.48.

Anamoe just got too far back and ran the race fastest last 600m in 35.97, approximately two lengths faster than Converge. Moreover, his final 400m split was one of the quickest of the entire meeting in 23.69.

The three-year-old Colt is well suited over further distance and can settle closer from a kinder draw.

 
The Midway Handicap went out at a very fast pace and ran their first 1000m in approximately 4.5-5 lengths faster than the G1 Guineas (1600m) and 8.5 lengths quicker than the G3 Aspiration (1600m).

Even after adjusting for the first use of the track, Cap Estel has run a very fast time and has come back an improved filly this preparation.

As stated, the G3 Aspiration went out at a moderate pace and Le Lude had all favours and sprinted away in the race fastest final 200m in 12.45.

Favourite Le Gai Soleil had too much to do and ran the race’s fastest 800m-200m splits.

Most expected another duel between Nature Strip and Eduardo in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) before the previous week’s highway winner Shelby Sixtysix made a late surge to almost causing a major upset.

Eduardo pinged out of the barriers to show his customary natural gate speed and be the clear leader for Nash Rawiller.

He tactically rode the race to perfection using the gelding’s strengths over the specialist distance of 1000m.

He ran the first 600m in 35.29, then sprinted strongly between the 400m-200m in 11.23, making it difficult for the opposition to reel him in.

Shelby Sixtysix for smart country-based trainer Danny Williams exceeded market expectations starting at $61 and made a late lunge to just miss in an exciting finish.

He ran the fastest closing sectionals of the entire meeting, sprinting his final 600/400/200 in 34.35/23.17/12.05.

The five-year-old gelding will now target the Newhaven Country Championships heat at Scone.

Nature Strip began awkwardly then had to chase throughout and ran the fastest middle sectionals between the 800m-400m in 21.74.

The mid-race exertion took its toll second-up over the final furlong, and he was slow to recover after a post-race vet assessment.

He can bounce back as he follows the same Autumn campaign as last year, where he produced his career peak figure third up in the Group One T J Smith Stakes.

A quick mention of the two-year-olds where the fillies in the Resiling Stakes (1200m) ran approximately 3.5 lengths faster overall time than the colts who contested the Todman Stakes (1200m).

The fillies sectional race breakdown throughout was superior as well.

However, both races rated below par even after allowing for age, conditions and additional historical factors in relation to the day.

It’s worth noting Mazu is flying when running fast overall time of 65.87 and maintained a strong finishing speed in the Fireball Stakes (1100m).

Fastest Last 600m: Shelby Sixtysix 34.35.

Watch Punter’s Intelligence with Ben Way, Brad Davidson and Brad Gray at 7pm on Tuesdays on Sky Thoroughbred Central.

Click here to download the Punter's Intelligence app

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