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Punter's Intelligence Wrap - Inglis Millennium Day

While Xtravagant Star earned the right to be targeted at a Golden Slipper, it’d be wise to keep on the tails of the placegetters out of Saturday’s $2m Inglis Millennium (1100m) at Randwick.

Punter’s Intelligence sectional data recorded Xtravagant Star’s last 600m as 34.24 which was excellent in the context of the race after stalking the speed and then giving a good kick to win by almost two lengths.

Her time was third fastest in the race so it says she sustained the run while the others on the pace, Sweet Ride and Athletica, weakened a little over the last 200m or so.

The winner’s final 200m of 11.60 was second best in the race and just a tick behind Paris Dior’s 11.59.

The runner-up clocked the fastest last 600m of the race, running 33.95, close to two lengths superior to Xtravagant Star but she gave away too much start.

Sejardan raced wide without cover throughout yet ran 34.19 for his last 600m to be second fastest and he ran the equal third best last 200m of 11.63 so his effort was strong. Both he and Paris Dior covered an extra 9.3m in the run, clearly more than those around the placings.

It might also be worth a look at The Seven Seas and Fire And Ice in something a little easier next time. Their final 200m was strong running 11.64 and 11.63 respectively as they made ground from the rear having drawn the two outside gates.

A comparison between the three 1200m races at Randwick uncovers an interesting fact about Paulele’s win in the Group 3 Eskimo Prince Stakes.

The Godolphin colt surprised a few by leading and in doing it Kerrin McEvoy was able to slow them to a crawl.

He ran the first 600m in 36.43 which was six lengths slower than the TAB Highway and around 10 lengths slower than Maotai who led all the way in the Benchmark 88. So Paulele was entitled to sprint home.

Paulele, who paraded as though he would improve with the run, sprinted home in 34.02 for the last 600m to hold off Ranch Hand (33.67) and Converge (33.75) both of which ran well but just couldn’t peg back the ground.

So the run of Hilal into fifth placing says he’s come back nicely, running 33.35 to be the fastest for the last 600m in the race while his 11.31 final 200m was also race best.

Four Pillars winner Kiss Sum was just a tick outside his time with a final 600m of 33.36 and he’d be right in the mix for the Polytrack Provincial-Midway Championships.

By overall time Paulale was 0.03 seconds faster than Testator Silens in the Highway but against Maotai he was over five lengths slower (1.09.36). Given the strong gallop it’s hard to take anything away from Maotai and if he retains his composure in his races can go on up in grade.

Silent Impact did enough in that race in second place to say he’s now looking for further than 1200m.

You have to wonder what level Shadow Crush can reach after he sizzled in winning the Ranvet Sprint (1000m), coming from last in 32.22 for his last 600m. That’s comfortably the best of the meeting.

He posted 10.51 from the 400m-200m while his last 200m of 11.04 was over three lengths quicker than the next best in the race. He does need tracks on the dry side but he’s flying at the moment.

If you think Paulele had it easy, take a look at what Frosty Rocks was allowed to do in winning the Yarraman Park Handicap (1600m)! The grey’s first 800m of 51.90 was a whopping 18 lengths slower than the Midway over the same trip and about 11 lengths slower than the Benchmark 78.

Under those circumstances if a horse like Frosty Rocks can run home in 33.55 for his last 600m those chasing would need a rocket to run him down. The entire field broke 34 seconds for that final 600m.

So a few stayers either resuming, off a freshen or early in their preps have run enormous – they are No Compromise in third (33.23), Luncies in fifth (33.18) and Mightybeel in seventh with a race best 33.07.

Speaking of stayers, Through Irish Eyes gets a big tick for his first-up effort in the Davali Thoroughbreds Cup (1600m), he was only getting warm late running 33.99 for his last 600m and 11.56 for his final 200m for the best splits of the race.

Fastest last 600m: Shadow Crush 32.22

Watch Punter’s Intelligence with Ben Way, Brad Davidson and Brad Gray at 7pm on Tuesdays on Sky Thoroughbred Central.

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