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By Nick Berney

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday's Newcastle meeting. Selections based on a heavy to soft track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

Tricky race to start, and leaning towards debutante 5. Harlemite who has a positive race setup, and she represents value. The filly showed gate speed but drifted back from an awkward draw and raced wide in a recent heat at Hawkesbury. Further, she found the line well under a tight grip, wasn't extended and went through the line full of energy. She is immature/green, but barrier one will allow her to follow the rail, and she can fight out the finish with even luck.

Dangers: First starter 7. Rapt looks a nice type, and she hit the line well to win a recent trial at Beaumont Newcastle. She is well educated and expect her to be strong late. 6. Pretty Rho brings a race experience edge and comes through some class races. She has peaked on both of her runs in her career, but the step back to 900m looks ideal. 2. The Escape raced wayward on debut at Gosford and can improve. His stablemate 4. Bakerloo will roll forward and can give a sight.

How to play it: Harlemite WIN ($8.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Harlemite latest trial at Hawkesbury on March 20

1. Secret Revolution showed natural gate speed first-up at Warwick Farm but was restrained from a wide draw and had too much to do. He got too far back in a slow tempo, made a long-wide sustained run, and clocked one of the fastest 400m-200m splits of the meeting before peaking on his run. He will be fitter for that, drops back to the provincial circuit and has a strong ratings profile for this event.

Dangers: 2. Gitalong returns as a gelding and has trialled well in preparation for his first-up assignment. The two-year-old quickened nicely in a recent heat at Rosehill and went through the line full of energy. He has solid form lines and maps to have all favours. 5. Welcome Gypsy was heavily backed on debut at Canberra but performed below market expectations. She can bounce back and has trialled up well. 7. Melissa has a fitness edge and add 6. Greyonce to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Secret Revolution WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Secret Revolution runs third at Warwick Farm on March 15

2. Nosey Parker has been freshened up after two solid performances this campaign where he has had factors against him. He is lightly raced, proven on the rain-affected ground and returning to his home track is ideal. Expect him to savage the line.

Dangers: 6. Tamar is suited over more ground but can sprint, and the big track suits. Debutante 7. Vegas On Fire has had two quiet trials leading into this event and is a key late market watch. 5. Heiress Hera is now under the guidance of Ciaron Maher & David Eustace and can give a sight rolling forward from a middle draw.

How to play it: Nosey Parker WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Nosey Parker runs third at Quirinidi on February 17

Forgiving of 10. Gorgeous Zara's last start on a deteriorating/shifting track at Hawkesbury and her starting price of $1.55 must be respected. She wasn't suited to the race shape, and jockey Brenton Advulla reported she never travelled comfortably in the run. However, her two previous starts were solid in time/sectional merit races and repeating those efforts/figures will make her hard to beat. Additionally, she can bounce back with the blinkers going on and Newcastle suits.

Dangers: 6. Picko Rocks had to make a long-wide sustained run last start at Canberra and peaked late. He is a consistent type and rock-hard fit. 4. Mindspace comes through the same race and ran evenly. Add 12. Smart Vengeance to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Gorgeous Zara WIN ($1.55 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Gorgeous Zara last start at Hawkesbury on March 26

11. Media Man wasn't run to suit last start, and he surged to the line late, running solid closing splits. He is rock-hard, proven on the rain-affected ground, and returns to his home track.

Dangers: Market watch on 7. Flying Witness, who failed at Goulburn 13 days ago but has multiple winning ratings. 2. Roccaforte has a strong platform and is ready to peak. 8. Pinky is ticking over and gets in on the race limit.

How to play it: Media Man WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Media Man runs fourth at Port Macquarie on March 17

3. In Love And War broke through for her maiden win in style at Warwick Farm last start. She was blocked for a run losing her momentum at a key stage, but she showed a nice turn of foot and ran away from her rivals. The filly drops back to the provincial circuit and can go on with it now.

Dangers: 5. Fleur Du Monde held off late challengers to win on debut and has had a tick-over trial between runs. 8. Myeyesadoreyou is coming out of a high rating race and add 7. Singapura to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: In Love And War Win ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

In Love And War wins at Warwick Farm on March 15

2. The Poacher profiles well for this, coming through two high rating races this prep, and gets a much more positive race setup here. First-up at Rosehill, he got too far back in the run but got through his gears well and ran honestly behind subsequent Group 3 winner Parisal. His run had merit last start around the tight-turning Gosford track, where he had to sit four wide throughout, albeit having cover. Moreover, he clocked one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting, and the step up in distance should pose no issue. He receives a significant barrier change allowing him to have a more economical trip, and the big Newcastle track is ideal. Expect a bold showing.

Dangers: 3. Loch Eagle comes through the same race and started much shorter in the market. He ran an even race but will undoubtedly improve from that performance. The rain-affected ground and home-track factors also suit. 12. New Republic brings a different form line, and he was unlucky last start at this track/distance. He was blocked at a critical stage, but to his credit, he hit the line well once balancing up. 1. Kingsheir wasn't suited to the brutal tempo last start after having 35 days between runs. He can bounce back and is a key late-market watch. 6. Willinga Freefall is on a five-day backup and add 5. Cruel Summer to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: The Poacher WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

The Poacher runs fourth at Gosford on March 16

2. Karedada was a dominant winner at this track/distance before spelling last prep and repeating that effort/figure will make him hard to beat. He has trialled well enough and maps to have all favours.

Dangers: 1. Jedibeel was a strong winner on debut at Hawkesbury and can make the step-in grade. No knock just has been well found in the early market. 8. Staness will be fitter and add 12. Jesellix to wider exotics.

How to play it: Karedada WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Karedada runs fifth in a trial at Beaumont on March 8

Best Bet: Race 2 # 1 - Secret Revolution

Next Best: Race 8 # 2 - Karedada

Best Value: Race 7 # 2 - The Poacher

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Newcastle meeting